90. VAS disappoints, avoiding a crash, US tech forever?

Is the Aussie share market still worth it? Should a new investor wait for the next crash? And how much tech exposure is too much? Dave and Hayden open the listener mailbag and tackle three questions that all circle the same problem: it's very easy to make long-term decisions based on what has worked lately. In this episode we'll discuss: 💸 Whether broad Australian shares still make sense for long-term income, especially after a weaker dividend period had one listener questioning their strategy 💸 Why a high-yield Australian share ETF has beaten the broader Aussie market over the past five and ten years — and why that doesn't mean it will keep doing so 💸 Recency bias in action: the temptation to look at the last decade's winner and assume you've found the best investment for the next decade too 💸 Why comparing cash with shares over a single year doesn't tell you much, especially when shares have both an income and a growth component 💸 The hidden risks inside REITs: leverage, management decisions and concentration in areas like offices or retail can make a high yield less simple than it first appears 💸 Why "normal" share market returns can suddenly look disappointing after a decade of extraordinary US tech performance 💸 A question from an 18-year-old worried about an approaching market crash — and Dave's argument that a bad market early in your investing journey can actually help long-term accumulators 💸 Why nobody knows when the next crash is coming, and why spending years waiting for one can sometimes hurt more than the crash itself 💸 Hayden's way of thinking about US market risk: look past the headlines and consider what the biggest companies actually own, earn and do 💸 Why starting slowly can make sense if you're nervous, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the "perfect" entry point 💸 A listener planning to invest $1,000 a fortnight for 40 years, with 70% in a US index and 30% in a concentrated mega-cap tech ETF 💸 The concentration problem hiding inside that portfolio: many of those same giant tech companies already make up a large part of the broader US index 💸 Why doubling down on a theme can work brilliantly — but also leaves you more exposed if that part of the market goes through a long stretch of poor returns 💸 The trade-off at the heart of diversification: you might miss some spectacular winners, but you also reduce the chance of landing near the worst possible outcome The thread through all of it: nobody knows which market, sector or strategy will lead over the next decade. Recent winners can keep winning, or the whole picture can change. Diversification won't make your portfolio the most exciting one in the room, but it can make long-term investing much easier to stick with. Questions, disagreements or your own scenario: [hello@aussiefirepod.com](mailto:hello@aussiefirepod.com) or reach out on socials at Strong Money Australia and Pearler. Follow us on Instagram Watch on Youtube Ask a Question FI Case Study Request Form Pearler Strong Money Australia Original Aussie FIRE e-book Dave's books on Amazon and Spotify Disclaimer: Any advice is general and does not consider your financial situation needs, or objectives, so consider whether it's appropriate for you. You should also consider seeking professional advice before making any financial decision. Pearler is an Authorised Representative #1281540 of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd AFSL #337927. Read the FSG available from https://pearler.com/financial-services-guide * * * Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.