Is Robinhood Building Crypto’s Retail Moat?

I mean, what is this? Is this pause? Like I haven't slide to some accumulation of ETFs, but like, is this pause more to do with, you know, Robinhood chains and the meme mania and it left, you know, the tail curve stuff has run it, or is it more like a pause because, you know, we have the clarity act is the fed, is the fed going to hike or pause, you know? And then, I mean, for the latter, for these flows here, thanks Luke.

Um, The accumulation of Bitcoin, you know, we're starting to see some red again.

But I do think that's just because of people being cautious about the Fed's next decision.

What do you guys think? Is this like crypto driven after the recent, you know, Manian highs or technicals from the 82 resistance market? Do we think it's like macro having an effect again?

Yeah, I think given the move we saw and this huge spike in inflows, it's kind of a holding pattern and wait to see.

I do think the Treasury actions are going to be more important driver than the Fed, because even like whatever the Fed does in rate of change terms from this level, it's probably going to be pretty insignificant compared to what the treasury might do with long end repurchases.

So kind of expect to get more information on what hits the tape from the treasury over the coming month in particular.

And yeah, I think a lot of it's technical as well.

You saw a huge, huge vol spike in August, huge spike in inflows.

I kind of think The past week of price actions, you know, just pretty normal short term noise off of that 82 level.

And yeah, cloture cloture vote on clarity, I think is another reason for this holding pattern like If I look at the Clarity Act odds, we saw a huge spike in the weekend.

Over the weekend, we went up from 14% to 35%.

That has retraced a lot in the short term, kind of overnight back down to 12%.

So it's not looking good, bros, for Clarity Act this year.

That being said, if you still get... closure vote resolving favorably.

It may not be a this year thing as much as it could still be a 2027 item.

And I think the Kalschi odds for this line item out into 2027 still price it a bit higher than the 12% we see on Polymarket now.

So that would be my read.

Do

you all think that disclosure vote is going to pass?

I just saw Senator Loomis posted something about saying that the Democrats are not willing to give any budgets despite some kind of concessions that the Republicans have given in terms of the ethics provision, letting the Attorney General and the Treasury dictate officials' crypto endeavors, as well as giving different authorities the power to legislate against developers even.

Do we have any confidence in the votes later today?

I don't think clarity is passing, right? Just from the polymarket odds.

I also saw Jake Chabrinsky on the timeline yesterday night say that clarity is like they made all the improvements that legislators demanded.

And it's just now up to the vote.