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Essentially, there's one other thing I want to say.

When you look at the eight metropolitan regions in South Africa, Johannesburg is standalone with the most number of parties which currently control wards.

You have the D.A., the ANC, Aljamain, LaNasia, the Patriotic Alliance, who control a number of wards, and then Carter Freedom Party.

This is more than any other metropolitan area in the country.

We contrast that with Cape Town.

I'll give you the answer.

Analyst Wayne Sussman tells Chris Stain the latest ENCA mock data survey has the DA on 35% and the ANC just under 22% in a city where the ANC has always been the biggest party.

So what does the data show, Chris? And this is absolutely fascinating.

And again, to take a step back, as for those who look at these, this data comes up, is that since our first local government election in Johannesburg, the ANC has always been the most popular and biggest party.

And yes, it's been in a coalition.

Well, there's been coalition governments in 2016 and 2021.

But the ANC has always been bigger than the Democratic Alliance.

And I think it's also important to remind people what happened in 2021, that in 2021, Action SA came out of nowhere to get 16% of the vote and get 44 seats to replace the EFF as the third most popular party.

I think people are really anxious to hear the results of the survey, Wayne.

Sure.

So Cape Town is the second most populous city in South Africa.

Higher turnout than Johannesburg in 2021, 47%.

And look at this, the voters roll increasing by 9.39%.

That was higher than the Johannesburg rate.

And by the way, if there's a significantly higher turnout in Cape Town than Johannesburg, I know Capetonians are proud of their mountain, proud of their 101 beaches.

No, please, Wayne, let's go to the demographics in whichever order you're ready.

But were they, were they judging IEC procedures that in the end they found were wanting and flawed, or were they making a larger constitutional point?

John, it's not clear at this stage, but historical precedence, the Labor Party, Joseph Mathunjwa's Lab- Labor Party in 2024 was that they weren't allowed to retroactively submit their candidate lists.

The Democratic Alliance, there's a case in a relatively safe ward in the city of Cape Town in a by-election in 2022 or 2023.

They weren't able to retroactively submit their candidate list.

And of course, the National Freedom Party in KZN in 2016.

So this was a surprise to me, but maybe, I mean, again, we, let's focus on, focus on uMzinyathi and Port St. Johns.

These are two municipalities where the ANC was on track to win 75% to 80% of the vote.

But certainly the ANC, in terms of, uh, approaching these elections with something of a unified, uh, approach and, and, and, and, and, uh, unity of purpose, uh, th- this must give them some sort of boost, I would have thought, because this issue and the failures associated with the candidate submission, uh, have been very divisive and I would have thought quite innovating.

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It's, I think, very important to set the scene for Ekuruleni.

And, you know, in all our interviews, I'm a big advocate for Ekuruleni because people forget that this is the fourth most populous metropolitan area in South Africa.

This is the second most populous metropolitan area in Gauteng.

More people reside in the East Rand than they do in our beautiful capital city.

And I think people need to contextualize this, that this is the metropolitan area which is historically where the ANC was strongest in Gateng.

I remember in 2019, as we waited for those final results to come in from Ekuruleni, it was the Ekuruleni metropolitan area which pushed the ANC over the 50% mark.

Firstly, please tell us how the polling was conducted.

Thank you.

ENCA worked with Markdata, uh, and Dr. Elsa Tirion-Fenter, and six metropolitan areas were focused on for this poll: Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Tshwane.

And we did a combination of personal interviews and telephonic interviews to maximize the response rate.

Telephone interviews were typically used in higher income gated communities and areas which were unsafe or where the enumerators were not, uh, welcomed into those areas.

Um, and this is the, the key part.

The people polled had to be registered voters who are 18-- who are obviously 18 years and older, residing in South Africa, and who intended to vote in this election.

May we start with Ekurhuleni, please?

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So in contrast to the ANC in Ghateng and Nashni, I mean, Helen Zilla's campaign for mayor started well, more than a year ago.

And A lot of political candidates have missteps.

She hasn't really had any missteps.

Of course, a lot can go wrong in the last month.

But as we've said on the show, as we started closing our by-election coverage, that Johannesburg is the most populous metropolitan area in the country.

It's also where most of the media in South Africa is concentrated.

And millions and millions of ranks flow out of South Africa to buy licenses, for example, to use um software such as microsoft also ai technologies and so forth so the americans greatly benefit from south africa and south africa benefits from the united states and that the nation should be nurtured should be protected 600 american businesses are working in south africa and operating in south africa it's a massive investment they create jobs now The American government, if they are very clever, they will say, how do we expand our economic footprint in South Africa?

starting us off it's shaping up to be a car crash for the ANC on the NDB Sunday show elections analyst Wayne Sussman tells Christine the party has failed to even submit candidates in some of its own heartlands and dropped off the proportional list and others meaning any return to power now runs through a coalition

And this is a critical election for Soro Ramaphosa and the African National Congress.

So you know that the last local government election was their worst ever performance in a local election, getting under 50% of the vote for the first time, getting 46% of the vote.

This also takes place at a time when the 2024 elections had major consequences across Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

And the last few weeks have been utterly devastating for the African National Congress.

I think the list debacle...

And yes, it's only two municipalities where there were no candidates submitted at all.

It's a blunder in the sense that it actually makes of the ANC a martyr and of those that they want

May we start with the African National Congress, please?

Thank you, Chris.

And this is a critical election for Soro Ramaphosa and the African National Congress.

So you know that the last local government election was their worst ever performance in a local election, getting under 50% of the vote for the first time, getting 46% of the vote.

This also takes place at a time when the 2024 elections had major consequences across Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

And the last few weeks have been utterly devastating for the African National Congress.

I think the list debacle...

Correct.

So if that's the case, then which smaller party, Wayne, do you think has the greatest kingmaker potential?

I do think it is Mashaba right now.

Look, if the PA shoot the lights out, in places like El Dorado Park, River Lee, make some inroads in Soweto, then they could be it.

But I do see Action SA, even if they fall, I mean, Action SA, remember, in 2021 came third.

They beat the EFF.

It was a very impressive performance.

But if they come, there's a scenario that they come in fifth behind EFF and Nkontu Esizwe or behind Nkontu Esizwe and EFF.

I'm hearing you say that Soweto is going to be decisive in determining the result.

Do you have any idea what the number is?

Thanks, John.

It is pretty opaque because none of this information is public.

But what we've heard is in Port St. John and in Musa Hill, the ANC submitted no ward candidates list or no proportional list.

So therefore, there are no candidates on the ballot.

And both these municipalities are where the ANC were probably expecting to win 80 percent of the seats.

And then in Mangawung, which you mentioned, they didn't submit a proportional list, which means they could probably only win 41 out of the 101 seats, which would mean they'd have to go into coalition.

There is a very small part of me that says if people in those municipalities want to vote for an ANC candidate, I might not understand that desire, but I think they should democratically be able to follow it, but not at the cost of the rules being broken.

Is it the IAC or the ANC?

Thank you, John.

This is a very tough situation for the ANC.

If you look at some of the municipalities affected, Ports and Johns, Noosa Hill in the Eastern Cape, these are places where the ANC could have got over 80 percent of the vote.

So, look, let me just to answer your question.

we know that parties like the democratic alliance from contours is where the economic freedom fighters through the patriotic alliance as well are contesting every single ward in south africa they did so on time this is a key part of the election process it's a critical um box to tick to make sure that the candidates you're going to put on posters the candidates who will appear on ballots are correctly filed the stakes are high for supporters of the political parties The stakes are high for these candidates who are hoping to be elected.

And by the way, in many of these cases in the Eastern Cape, likely to be elected.

What can the ANC do if they feel that the IEC is responsible for this?

Just how good or how badly has this candidate selection process gone for the majority of the major parties in South Africa? Good morning.

Good morning, Lester.

In life, they say you only had one job.

The... candidate submission process is a major part of the road to the elections and this is not only um is the livelihood of many of the these aspirant councils at stake there are many supporters we know let's go to the eastern cape the eastern cape many parts of the eastern cape are die hard rock solid anc territory there are people in the eastern cape looking forward to voting for the anc And we need to see where these municipalities are, but they've missed the candidate submission deadline.

And I just don't know how this happens, because I am sure that when it comes to the branches, when it comes to the regions, when it comes to the provinces, and certainly when it comes to Lutuli House, there must have been many checks and balances to make sure that these lists get submitted on time.

if the democratic alliance could have done it on time from contour israel could have done it on time if the eff and many other parties could have done it on time i believe the anc in the eastern cape could have also done it on time and just a quick point we know that in 20 i think it was 2016 the national freedom party in kwa zulu natal failed to appear on multiple KwaZulu-Natal lists and the party never recovered.

But they had one job in 2016 and they didn't do it properly.

But are the best people being attracted to political parties at the moment to represent us at a municipal level?

But who do you think has the most to gain of those parties, and who have the most to lose?

lose?I think the ANC is under tremendous pressure in the metropolitan areas of South Africa.

By-election trends suggest that certainly in Limpopo, the Eastern Cape, and much of the northwest, the ANC's vote is pretty rock solid.

However, when one looks at the three metropolitan areas, uh, municipalities in Gauteng, certainly Ekurhuleni, um, and then even Nelson Mandela Bay, I think the ANC's under tremendous pressure.

Um, and then you have the Zille factor.

Uh, I said, I just spoke about it in contours Israel a few minutes ago.

Uh, I think Jacob Zuma, um, was this outsized juggernaut in the 2024 election, which, uh, the, let's say the established parties, the ANC, the DA, the EFF, didn't know how to contend against him.

How do you see them performing, and what is the, uh, by-election data telling us, if anything at all?

council,

with a huge majority of them having one seat.

And for my sins, I'm a sucker for punishment.

In preparing for election night, I'm going through every single ward.

And many of these parties barely make a splash in any ward or in any community, but they accrue enough votes to qualify for a seat.

And sometimes they can hold the balance of power.

Now, this might invite dysfunction.

I mean, does that create ward-level problems? I've been focusing on the bigger picture, but I'm wondering at the level of a ward whether this dilution actually can become very problematic.

How much of a factor will it be in the upcoming local government elections, do you think?

Great question, Africa.

And just to take one step back, if you had to look at the UK opinion polls now and the Australian opinion polls, the two most popular parties are parties known for their anti-illegal immigration, their anti-migrant viewpoint.

It's one nation on Australian reform in the United Kingdom.

So across the world, we've seen parties which take a strong line against migrants, against illegal immigrants.

who have a xenophobic line, we see them doing well at the polls.

However, to date, up until 2024, this has not worked.

And now there are some questions, at least in Cape Town, whether the foreign nationals should be allowed to go back to trading as spaza shop owners and informal traders.

Is that a trend that held and one that we need to look out for as we approach November? Good afternoon to you.

Thank you so much, John.

When we look at the by-election trends, particularly, I think we want to look at it from the periods of 2021 to 2026.

But because of the landmark election we had in 2024, for me, the more important reference point is the period between the 2024 election and today.

Right.

And you're correct.

We saw the Patriotic Alliance do very well in the since the 2024 elections, not just in the Western Cape, but in the western part of the Eastern Cape, the side abutment district and the Northern Cape.

In regard to their results, both in relation to the EFF, but the ANC as well, what about that particular dynamic? What do we know from the by-elections?

Elections analyst Wayne Susman unpacks.

So we saw a, a version of the GNU play out here in Ekurhuleni, but the DA do not sit in the government.

They're the, in the Ekurhuleni government, they're the largest opposition party.

But the ANC was unable to pass, uh, the budget with the e- with the EFF support.

We know that the reason why the DA lost power is 'cause the ANC and the EFF were able to work together to cobble together a coalition.

Um, and the EFF, after the fallout of the mayor and, uh, the then e- MMC Dungu, who's now the M- MEC for finance, the EFF provincial leader, um, the ANC has failed to pass the budget.

And of course, if you have a failure to pass a budget, there are big ramifications for the resident, for the work of the municipality.

When looking back at the voter registration weekend marred by a spate of political killings.

Chris, this is very sad.

The first, um, story we heard was the assassination of the DA ward councilor candidate in Dunoon in Cape Town.

We recently, uh, covered that, uh, analyzed the Dunoon by-election in the city of Cape Town, where this DA candidate did well growing her party support.

Then we heard the tragic news of a sitting ward councilor, ANC ward councilor in Nelson Mandela Bay also, uh, being assassinated during the registration weekend.

We've heard stories of Umkhonto, Umkhonto, which is where activists dying and also, uh, Build One South Africa, Mmusi Maimane's Build One South Africa party also losing one of their candidates.

Um, we still need to understand more details.

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Wayne, the Ekurhuleni Council has finally passed a budget of 71 billion rand after several failed attempts, but only because the Democratic Alliance supported the African National Congress.

Correct.

So we saw a, a version of the GNU play out here in Ekurhuleni, but the DA do not sit in the government.

They're the, in the Ekurhuleni government, they're the largest opposition party But the ANC was unable to pass, uh, the budget with the, with the EFF support.

We know that the reason why the DA lost power is 'cause the ANC and the EFF were able to work together to cobble together a coalition.

Um, and the EFF, after the fallout of the mayor and, uh, the then, uh, MMC Dungo, who's now the M- MEC for finance, the EFF provincial leader, um, the ANC has failed to pass the budget.

When looking back at the voter registration weekend marred by a spate of political killings.

In his weekly chat with BizNews journalist Chris Steyn, elections analyst Wayne Sussman gave his insights into the DA's cabinet reshuffle, which saw party leader Jordan Hill-Lewis requesting the axing of John Steenhuisen as agriculture minister.

In the Government of National Unity, there is an agreement with all the political parties, and of course, the ANC and those political parties.

Um, and there was a very clear agreement over what positions, uh, what ministerial positions, what deputy ministerial positions would go to each political party.

So if we'll remember, uh, last year, John Steenhuisen, um, had a big falling out with Dion George, and Dion George was dis-dismissed from his position.

Th-that posit-- It was a DA-mandated position, and therefore Steenhuisen made the recommendation to President Cyril Ramaphosa, who then effected the change.

And this is the same thing here.

We know that Jordan Hill-Lewis and John Steenhuisen, 'cause they've said it on record, are close friends or might have been close friends.

Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next week.

What impact do you think that could have on the upcoming local government elections?

Correct.

So let's just take a step back.

In the government of national unity, there is an agreement with all the political parties and, of course, the ANC and those political parties.

And there was...

A very clear agreement over what positions, what ministerial positions, what deputy ministerial positions would go to each political party.

So if we'll remember, last year, John Steenhuysen had a big falling out with Dion George and Dion George was dismissed from his position.

Okay, let us go to last night's by-election results, Wayne.

What impact do you think that could have on the upcoming local government elections?

Correct.

So let's just take a step back.

In the government of national unity, there is an agreement with all the political parties and, of course, the ANC and those political parties.

And there was...

A very clear agreement over what positions, what ministerial positions, what deputy ministerial positions would go to each political party.

So if we'll remember, last year, John Steenhuysen had a big falling out with Dion George and Dion George was dismissed from his position.

Okay, let us go to last night's by-election results, Wayne.

Here's Wayne Sussman.

Last night was the final round of Western Cape by-elections for the period after the 2021 local government elections and before the 2026 local government elections, the final by-election in the Western Cape province, indeed a battleground province, a province where the DA did very, very well in 2021 and 2024.

One of the things we've been seeing, Chris, is the patriotic alliance winning wards off the DA, winning wards off the ANC.

And part of this has been generating an incredible turnout enthusiasm.

Was this going to play out in the final round of by-elections? This by-election was a Patriotic Alliance seat next to Malmesbury in the area of West Bank in the Swartland area on the West Coast.

Now, Swatland was part of the historic blue wall of the DA.

This used to be the safest DA municipality in the country.

Let us go to last night's results.

We had one by-election yesterday.

There were supposed to be two, but the one in KwaZulu-Natal was not proclaimed.

Last night was the final round of Western Cape by-elections for the period after the 2021 local government elections.

And before the 2026 local government elections, the final by-election in the Western Cape province, indeed a battleground province, a province where the DA did very, very well in 2021 and 2024.

One of the things we've been seeing, Chris, is the Patriotic Alliance winning awards off the DA, winning awards off the ANC.

And part of this has been generating an incredible turnout enthusiasm.

While we are in the Western Cape, Good and Rise Bizanzi have joined forces behind mayoral hopeful Brett Heron.