Mm.

So, um, this election should be about moving people on.

It's not a cost of living, uh, problem, I would, I would say.

It's actually a purchasing power problem that Kiwis have where wages haven't kept up.

It's such minute stuff that I just don't think, uh, voters believe the promises.

And the bigger point I think about the promises this election is that with those two major parties struggling to attract even 3 in every 10 voters to them, the bigger question is what policy mandate will they actually have post-election? And I think that's a different equation this time round.

No, no.

I'm gonna come back to where I started.

We'll start with you, Trish, because you've been giggling your way through that.

How grim is this? It's astounding, isn't it? The only way I can frame it up is that populism has just completely taken over this election to the point where those two major parties are actually fighting on the issues of last election.

So this election should be about moving people on.

It's not a cost of living problem, I would say.

It's actually a purchasing power problem that Kiwis have where wages haven't kept up.

It's such minute stuff that I just don't think voters believe the promises.

And the bigger point I think about the promises this election is that with those two major parties, struggling to attract even three in every 10 voters to them, the bigger question is what policy mandate will they actually have post-election? And I think that's a different equation this time round.

Why are they not actually reverting to their strongest point, which is education, going hard on that?

We'll start with you, Trish, because you've been giggling your way through that.

How grim is this? It's astounding, isn't it? The only way I can frame it up is that populism has just completely taken over this election to the point where those two major parties are actually fighting on the issues of last election.

So this election should be about moving people on.

It's not a cost of living problem, I would say.

It's actually a purchasing power problem that Kiwis have where wages haven't kept up.

It's such minute stuff that I just don't think voters believe the promises.

And the bigger point I think about the promises this election is that with those two major parties, struggling to attract even three in every 10 voters to them, the bigger question is what policy mandate will they actually have post-election? And I think that's a different equation this time round.

Why are they not actually reverting to their strongest point, which is education, going hard on that?

Yeah

... warning about the superannuation changes we need.

I think that he is absolutely on the money, and I think what we're seeing from the sort of spraying around of al- all of the political parties, uh, you know, it's real rats in my stuff.

Yesterday Labor, they're out talking about changes to parliamentary urgency and the Official Information Act, which I don't think anybody, A, will register or, B, um, uh, really cares about.

Uh, and I just, I, I think there's a lot of political jazz hands going on, where the big, the big problems seem too hard, so politicians aren't gonna get onto them, and they're just-

Exactly.

The anchor, the anchor points of both of those coalitions, Labor and National on either side, if you believe the polls, they are only on around 28%.

So the real interest is around what sort of flavor you want in that, uh, coalition.

Is there a winner this week for you?

Well, my winner is actually not any of the politicians.

My winner and MVP for this week was Treasury Secretary Ian Rennie, who around the pre-election fiscal update came out and once again was grown up in the room, really giving the warnings to New Zealand about what we're exactly facing.

You know, we've got to get debt under control.

you know, and warning about the superannuation changes we need.

I think that he is absolutely on the money.

And I think what we're seeing from the sort of spraying around of all of the political parties, you know, it's real raps in my stuff.

Is that fair?

you think there will be backlash to it, Trish?

I don't think there will be backlash to it.

I mean, it is allowed within the system and we are now coming up to 30 years of MMP and we are still in a system that allows for this to happen.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this and essentially... over the years under MMP, there has every election been a different type of call for some sort of strategic voting.

I think where the view that this could cement in a centre-right government forever because National holds so many electorate seats...

Which sounds a bit scary.

I don't think that quite holds because this election is unusual because we are seeing the centre-left and the centre-right blocks neck and neck.

wasn't

Right, Trish, what's your response to the supermarkets?

Well, a quick disclaimer from me.

As you know, I've worked for Foodies for around six years, still work for them.

So these views are completely my own.

Where I think we're getting to in this election, we are getting to a do nothing, smash something election.

That's essentially what we're getting from both of these major parties.

So if I look at the big stuff that New Zealanders, that is really facing New Zealand, that is about things like getting on top of our national debt.

are you going to do about competition?

So, you know, why get into this fight, really? It's not a big vote winner, I don't think.

I think, once again, this is a headline dressed up as an actual policy for New Zealand First, and it is just banging the anti-immigration drum.

A couple of examples here to just see why this is the wrong thing.

So you've got two people, right? Permanent resident, lived here for 35 years, worked here, raised a family here, paid tax throughout, but never bothered to take citizenship.

If Winston's argument is contribution, how can you seriously argue that person B has a higher eligibility than person A? Yeah.

So I think this falls down on this measure.

The other thing that I found interesting yesterday in their announcement, I think they got their numbers wrong because they were referencing a figure, I think, of we're paying a billion dollars a year to these people who shouldn't be eligible.

And we had ACT.

Trish, did they make the right call on the fuel excise?

I am not into this at all.

I think this fuel excise thing is a great example of the short-sightedness of our current politicians.

The one thing all New Zealand voters know is our infrastructure is way behind roading in particular.

And just ask the people of Northland who are still waiting 50 years on for a decent road up there.

At every election there will be, call it cost of living pressures, whatever, there are always pressures today.

The job of our senior politicians is to be able to look out and make decisions for the long term.

Can I blame him? David led

What do you think, Trish?

I think you guys are right in terms of the workability of the bill.

I have spent the afternoon actually with, um, my daughter, who is 21.

So she made the great...

So I asked her about this.

I said, "Well, what, what do you think?" Because she is of really the m- the cohort that have mainly grown up with social media.

And she said two things.

You flip it and say, "You'd better start now." Now Trish, what do you make of the ax, uh, the, the, the tax being axed? It had to be, right?

Mm-hmm

... and they're bringing someone in to run the whole thing.

Um, uh, I, I, I mean, I th- I get where the government is going, that you have to have really good foundations for a decision like this, but after 30 years, are they really the first ones to think about this? And when, and when Bishop said, and I think this is right, they are the first ones to actually have gone out and, and surveyed the bottom of the harbor and figured out, you know, what, what's going to work.

It had all been desk-topped there.

So, uh, a- around that point, I thought either previous governments have been spectacularly arrogant and inept, or Luxon and Bishop are, are being somewhat arrogant around this announcement, saying, "We are the only ones now who finally know how to, how to do this properly."

Mm.

Uh, I agreed with Helen Clark's comments for this reason.

Helen Clark is a, is one of those rare pol- politicians who deeply cared about policy and was a conviction politician.

That does not sound like a united party, and, um, when a p- when a leader is demoting those from his cabinet that he sees as disloyal, it's usually a recipe for trouble in the, in the not too distant future, isn't it?

it?So I don't think anyone is under any illusion that this is a united caucus.

I think the issue from here is what does that do to either the center-right block vote under our MMP system or the center-left block vote? So under our system, um, we have traditionally had a three-party sort of an, an agreement on the center right or center left to form a government.

The view that seems to be forming out of today is that, um, for National, who is polling at historically low levels for a major party in a coalition, they are polling at around 29%, um, that this could mean that they bleed more votes to their coalition partners, either Act on the center right or New Zealand First, which is effe- effectively the, the sort of po- more populous party sitting in the center.

Or the other alternative is we have a new party sort of that's come on the horizon, uh, this election.

It's called the Opportunities Party, and under our MMP system any party to get into parliament has to cross a 5%, um, electoral threshold.

And Opportunity party for the first time this election in the polls, they're looking like they may get over that threshold.

Is cost of living the pressure point, or are other issues like immigration and social cohesion playing a part here?

Don't need to explain that

... yeah, and, and the conspiracy is what went on, um, in the back end.

This is absolutely unprecedented.

So first of all, this is not a fractious, um, first-term opposition that's bloodletting because they can't get, um, support in the lead-in to an election to roll a government.

This is, uh, a first-term governing National Party.

Um, secondly, this is now the third attempt at a, at a coup to roll Luxon.

Their saving grace at the moment is they still win the election 'cause the center left sucks.

Well, that's right.

Uh, what do you think of Gareth, Trish?

[laughs] I, I...

This reminded me of way back in the day when ACT first came into Parliament, and, and Sir Roger was the president and had a very straight, purist view, a, um, a great view, but a purist view of what ACT should do in Parliament, and it's all about principle, and, you know, you're not gonna get distracted by the baubles of office, et cetera, et cetera.

That's what Gareth reminds me of here.

Um, and, and I think there's two points to make.

One is, um, I, I'm not convinced that, uh, Chris Luxon meant to rule this out at the post-Cab presser, but his office then very quickly put out a clarifying statement which did, wh- which did actually rule it out.

Um, I, I think the, there's an interesting, uh, conversation around Labor and whether they look to do a deal with Opportunities Party in the Mount Albert seat because that's where Kule Wong is, is standing against Helen White.

It's gaslighting is what it is

[laughs]

Um, so number one, in the same breath as Chloe was announcing all of this, her quote of the day was, "Gas belongs in the museum." So, um, to Josie's point, they just don't understand fundamentally how our, um, power and energy system works, especially when we have, um, potentially when we're looking down the barrel next year of a very dry year with El Niño.

Uh, secondly, how to fund this, and this is one of my big bugbears over the weekend and today with this announcement and with New Zealand First's announcement.

Once again, we have politicians standing up and saying to taxpayers, "We want to spend a billion dollars of your money," so the, this Greens policy is a billion dollars.

Um, New Zealand First's, um, you know, a billion dollar-

If you change your mind, you've first got to acknowledge that you got it wrong the first time and go, "Yep, I stood up there and I was bloody uncomfortable and shouldn't have done it, and now I'm fixing it."

A- and also what we haven't seen here, and this is a, a, a long line of headline policies from New Zealand First, once again we're talking about it 24 hours later, so good, good on them for that.

But there is no, um, cost-benefit analysis on spending this billion dollars.

Mm.

I do feel that if you want competent people to be members of parliament, and we absolutely have to have competent people, um, you know, the, the pay has to be commensurate with that.

Um, I do think, though, when ordinary Kiwis look at this, um, that scheme does seem, um...

It, it, it doesn't have the relativity, I think, were the words from the, um, from the, um, Ombudsman's office, that you would expect, i.e. it's not similar to what ordinary Kiwis get-

Go, Trish.

Well, I, I, I think that, I think that comes to a really great point.

I mean, number one, I think you always have to very carefully unpick the union's press releases around any pay dispute because ultimately sitting underneath it is a whole lot of nuance, and they're great at getting a headline that probably doesn't often reflect the true situation.

Number two, I think, you know, my question is what is the cost of living, those words, what is that being used as a proxy for in this, uh, conversation? Because if this is about, um, you know, a wage increase to keep up with, um, CPI or inflation, that, that is something, um, different.

Quite right

... it's absolutely excellent.

And I also think that, um, if we flip our thinking about New Zealand, we should start thinking about ourselves as the richest country in the world, and I tell you why.

On all of the things that other countries are and will be desperate for, clean water, renewable energy, food, great food production, uh, we are at the, we are in the best place, uh, in the world.

How do you feel about that?

Oh, sa- same old drum from New Zealand First.

Let's dig under the hood of that.

So, um, under the Section 12 of the Bill of Rights, there is nothing stopping them in law from doing this.

Yeah, yeah.

But I think tw- two, two problems for those parties.

Number one, for Labor, it is making their idea of being a small target in this election campaign, it- it's almost now a joke.

I looked at the headline around that and saw an apprentice policy, and I thought, "Oh my goodness." I mean, surely you could have dressed that up as something more.

It is not going to get anyone excited.

And the problem for Labor now is that is, you know, they, they are not painting a vision of what it, when the sun is coming up over the horizon.

If I were them, I would be very worried on the KiwiSaver stuff.

It's like the air being let out of it

Well, that's right.

Wh- whether he can do it or not.

Um, there is that great saying that it's often people apply particularly to higher performance sports people or artists that you always leave them wanting more.

So you wouldn't want...

I- I haven't heard that his performance on stage was impacted.

He had to pop off for a bit of a top-up, and then he, then he came back at full strength again.

So I, I mean, I think it's completely up to him.

Trish?

Well, what are you losing sleep over then, Trish?

[laughs] Uh, well, the one I am losing sleep over is, um, un- unexpe- unexpectedly for me, but the Green Party's wealth tax announced yesterday.

So number one, I'm gonna give them a little bouquet for at least announcing what is policy that looks like it has been, um, you know, put together over a relatively long period of time and thought through.

But what really interested me about it was the headline on the policy was, quote, "A tax system for all of us." Looking at what they are proposing, uh, to me it seems more like it's about a tax package where someone else will work hard and pay for you.

And I think this is back to the fundamental issue with, uh, Green policy.

It's always about, um, you know, having people who do well and work hard, see- having them portrayed as greedy, having them portrayed as an easy ride, and we'll just take money off them and, and give it to people who don't want to do those things.

So, uh, absolutely not a fan of that.

Now, I know, Trish, that you love it, because you love Fraser Winterer's idea, and it's Fraser Winterer's idea that's led to this idea, right?

Trish, what do you reckon?

Well, I think, you know, there was the phone ringing off the hook or the text machine going nuts with the WTF, the WTAF, and also people saying, is it the 1st of April? It was one just completely out of the box.

And I think the question here for me is actually how much will Matthew's leadership reshape the editorial character of the Post and will it be done in a way that audiences and journalists actually trust? And now I think that is the big question in today's news environment and that absolutely remains to be seen.

The other parts, I think, around this are, you know, yes...

Being an editor requires understanding of the media and of the news context But increasingly these days, it is a very big commercial role.

You're dealing with advertisers.

You've got a big staff to work with.

What do you think, Trish?

Mm.

And I was away last week and, um, you know, heard someone say they'd been talking to one of the Labor spokespeople and said, "Oh, you know, how's it going?" Their first thing was, "Well, we're waiting for the budget to come out." Now surely you've got better things to be doing as a Labor spokesperson than sitting on your hands waiting for the government's budget to be coming out.

You should be donkey deep in this now.

Um, you know, Winston Peters has absolutely stolen a march on Labor because he's been campaigning and releasing policy for at least two and a half months.

Yeah.

Um, and I just think this underscores if you're nervous about voting Labor, you don't think that they've literally got their shit together for the election.

This is just [laughs] going to highlight that worry, and they're focused in completely the wrong space.

Or if you're media training at this stage, you should be media training on your policies.

[laughs]

I mean, if ...

I just think New Zealanders be warned.

We are entering the year of silly Sundays, that every Sunday, from one political party or, or another to varying deg- degrees, there will be n- nutso stuff coming out.

Yeah.

Um, but, you know, pu- putting all that aside, I think th- there was something that happened last week that I think is important for the election campaign.

Three leaders, Hipkins, Luxon, and Peters, all came to Auckland, the election battleground, and tried to stake out, um, the f- the fighting ground for the election.

Yeah

What do you think is going on here? Is this the start of the end? Is this the collapse? I think

this is proving that old adage, and it's proof that it goes across any party, that voters absolutely punish disunity.

The Maori Party has looked like a shambles now for four months.

And then I think there's something more important that's underpinning it and what they will be punished for.

It is the way that the likes of Mariumenu Kapakingi have been attacked from within her party.

From what I hear from people, that is just not the way.

It's not the way that Māori voters want to see their MPs treated or disrespected.

So I think it's really interesting.

I heard from the person who went with you that it was wonderful.

I tell you what, I am absolutely not a live theatre person, but that was great.

And I think what I loved about it is because I'm obviously a bit of a political geek and it really had a good look inside a lot of the events we all know about.

one of which was the historic moment for Helen Clark as a leader when her leadership vote was on 2%, Labour's vote was on 14%, and senior males in her caucus went into her office late at night and said, Helen, basically, it's over, you're done, you haven't got the support, and we want you gone.

Helen looked at them and said, I will see you in the caucus room in 30 minutes.

You will move a motion of no confidence and we'll see where we get to.

30 minutes later, the vote was held and yes, She won.

And this is