Mm

... or explode.

Um, you know, we, we are ignoring the world.

We are about to become reacquainted with the world very, very quickly, and the one thing we're not talking about is exactly that crisis, and we're not also talking about productivity, which is the, as you said, Heather, in your intro, the big thing that's actually gonna grow our economy.

I feel like we're at a buffet bar, and you know when you go around and you go, "Oh, I'll have sushi or lasagna," and then you end up with a plate with tiramisu, sushi, and lasagna on it and you're going, "I feel sick"?

And that's a message a lot of people have said to me.

All right, taking a, taking a break, coming back.

Eight away from 5:00.

And the bigger point I think about the promises this election is that with those two major parties, struggling to attract even three in every 10 voters to them, the bigger question is what policy mandate will they actually have post-election? And I think that's a different equation this time round.

Well, they'll have a mandate to subsidise sunblock.

Banned screens in schools and not put logos on uniforms.

I mean, what more could you want when the world is facing, just looking today at the news, the EU is preparing for war.

Russia is making very threatening noises towards the EU.

We have a bond market that's about to fall apart and explode.

We are ignoring the world.

Yeah, back with The Front Bench, 4.25. Josie, what were you saying about the aid thing? You don't like it.

And the bigger point I think about the promises this election is that with those two major parties, struggling to attract even three in every 10 voters to them, the bigger question is what policy mandate will they actually have post-election? And I think that's a different equation this time round.

Well, they'll have a mandate to subsidise sunblock.

Banned screens in schools and not put logos on uniforms.

I mean, what more could you want when the world is facing, just looking today at the news, the EU is preparing for war.

Russia is making very threatening noises towards the EU.

We have a bond market that's about to fall apart and explode.

We are ignoring the world.

Yeah, back with The Front Bench, 4.25. Josie, what were you saying about the aid thing? You don't like it.

Yeah

... competition and so on.

Um, uh, you know, so you've got pretty much consensus between National and Labor that there will be some form of compulsion and that different, different variations of it, so National, uh, uh, you know, it'd be compulsory for employees and employers at 6%.

Labor's just saying, "No, no, just employers." The reason for that, for Labor as I understand it, is that they're going, "Well, employees need a bit of flexibility when, you know, things go wrong or income goes down." So yeah, Act, y- they've come up with a different one.

Mm.

You know, there's that lovely old saying, you catch more flies with sugar than vinegar, and I think if you are just constantly out there harping about Labor, you're not gonna attract, uh, people over.

Um, I, I just think that that, um, again, you know, you've got all this little bitsy stuff and fragmentation going on.

You've got National in a complete panic because it's fighting two campaigns.

Josie, who won the battle of the beast campaign launch?

Yeah, charge of the lightweight brigade.

Look, I think Labor definitely won it.

Yeah, I think so.

They won it because they did, you know, Chippy had some energy.

I do think, and also they launched a policy.

They were the only party.

They're not the same person.

the Commerce Commission's own assessment

over 10 years.

Of the status quo where we haven't had competition.

But my point is you compare the supermarket sector with retailers, I don't know, jewelers, cafes.

You know, kitchen shops that sell pots and pans.

Competition is hard.

A lot of those businesses go under.

I know that everyone on

Oh, very bad.

But you're absolutely right that it does feel like both Labour and National, it's charge of the lightweight brigade, isn't it? That just not, you know, I mean, I think I said last week they're wandering around the country, travelling around, meeting people, stirring up apathy.

No one's getting excited, right? And you talked about it before, Heather, people want vision.

But with labour, it's a particular problem.

It's the small target problem.

And there are two problems with that.

One is, look at someone like Keir Starmer in the UK.

More importantly, you have to deal with the

But none of us would have imagined that we would still not have it on in 2027, seven years later.

Yeah, that's right.

And I agree with you, Trish.

I mean, it feels a bit like politicians are on some kind of reality TV show debating these things.

And, you know, one cuts the fuel tax for one year, the other does it, National does it for one year, Labour does it for three years.

Then we have a debate about, you know, who's going to tax who and who's not going to tax who.

Meanwhile, everybody else just getting on with life going, not even thinking about taxes.

Hey, what do you make of the debate around the Paris Agreement, Josie?

Mm.

The ...

And the country has to want a change.

Uh, you know, I think Blair did something like, you know, time for change or something simple.

And if the country wants change, then you're, you're going with the vibe where the voters are.

And I think with this one, i- if you t- take aside y- anybody's political views, um, better starts now is a ch- is a call for change.

So it's actually quite a good slogan in that sense.

Yeah.

Mm

... or barely National-led, then, then it's gonna be all on afterwards.

I'd, I just think, look, e- everybody looks bad from this.

Um, so Luxon looks self-serving.

I mean, clearly the best thing to do for the, for the National Party was to just do a dignified exit and, and put a new face on.

What are we left with now? Uh, it's gonna still be no Luxon face on the billboards because they know he's not an election vote winner.

Um, it's gonna be the same campaign, which is how awful all the other side is, and not about the big thing they, that Luxon hasn't been able to do, which is articulate a plan, a vision, a, a, a sense of what, what his theory is of politics and how he's gonna grow New Zealand out of this hole, and deal with a world where we've got, you know, the US threatening to invade Greenland and stuff like that.

I do

That's right

... "I want a U- a UBI, universal basic income." And it, and what, it's kinda like the protest vote at the moment.

So, so National and Labour just haven't quite made the sale, and so people are going, "Well, I don't wanna go with New Zealand First at the moment 'cause I don't like what Winston said in Parliament.

I'll go for Opportunity." So I think, y- you know, the, the, the pressure on National and Labour, both of them, to come up with something that's gonna get the attention.

And also I think rather than ruling out each other as parties, they should start ruling out the policies.

I mean, you know, [laughs] will Labour rule out, uh, a pause on data centers and banning fertilizer? Will National rule out acts no more new taxes?

... cost of living issue for most people

... it's not a direct match though, Phil.

Yeah, that's right

... "I want a, a UBI, universal basic income." And it, and what, what ...

It's kind of like the protest vote at the moment.

So, so National and Labor just haven't quite made the sale, and so people are going, "Well, I don't wanna go with New Zealand First at the moment 'cause I don't like what Winston said in Parliament.

I'll go for Opportunity." So I think, y- you know, the, the, the pressure on National and Labor, both of them, to come up with something that's gonna get the attention, and also I think rather than ruling out each other as parties, they should start ruling out the policies.

I mean, you know, [laughs] will Labor rule out, uh, a pause on data centers and banning fertilizer? Will National rule out Act's no more new taxes? Yeah.

You know, so start ...

What are these taxes?" And, and of course you good people in the media spent, uh, spent the last 24 hours asking them every question [laughs] which is pretty unhelpful.

Do you think he forgets he's prime minister sometimes?

Well, I think it just ki- it, it shows two things.

One is why are you making these kind of faceplants all the time? And you, and he's, and he is the prime minister, right? So it's like anybody in a position of power, if you make a comment, everyone's gonna look at it and go, "Oh, blimey, that's now gonna be policy," right? So you can't just ad-lib and think what you think about, you know, I don't know, pumpkin soup or something.

Suddenly it's gonna be a, a, a policy.

So he does kind of go off script like this in a way that gets everybody into trouble and shows that he's not very good at the politics.

So he's...

If you were gonna make a statement to Kari Wardle about MMP, you would've thought about it.

I mean, yet Horowhenua did and then pulled out.

How did you feel about it, Josie?

Well, you're right.

It's nasty.

It's offensive.

They've lost the moral high ground, haven't they? And you keep quoting the Michelle Obama quote, when they go low, we go high.

Well, they've done the opposite.

When they go low, we cut their heads off.

it's

Yeah.

So they've actually, uh, they've actually kind of sullied the pitch for Opportunity, I think, and that's probably quite clever.

I mean, it's risky because you could have some Labor voters, you'll drive some Labor voters, um, across to the Nats, potentially.

Um, or, sorry, you'll drive some Labor voters away from the Nats, so that, there is a risk there.

And I do think Gareth Morgan's got a point that on the crossbenches you can probably have, have more of a personality for a first party in government.

Is it a good policy, or is it a dumb policy for a moratorium?

No.

Look, when are they gonna be held accountable? So you deindustrialize New Zealand 'cause they don't want fertilizer, they don't want Methanex, they don't want, you know, industry, dirty industry, and we're meant to be having these sort of new jobs, new industries driven by electricity.

Yeah.

And we're gonna be in that reality for a while.

So, so the Greens can wish it away as much as they want and wander down the garden with the fairies, but in the end they can't ignore the science.

And they might desperately want us to be 100% renewable, but you have to look at the reality, and the reality is, uh, wind, we know, wind, solar, uh, um, the wind doesn't blow, the sun doesn't shine, you don't have it.

So the firming, and she kept getting that wrong too, the firming is the backup, and the backup has to be con- has to be something you can wind up or wind down.

I'm gonna have the timeframe to get a return

But you get a durable consensus through the political debate mechanism, right? And that's why I think de- you know, depending on what happens in the election, that if, uh, if, if New Zealand First get enough votes or if there's a coalition again comes back in and it's on f- the back of saying, "We're going to let, uh, um, uh, industry come in and we're gonna let, we're gonna drill for gas," then, then they'll come back, right? And if you look at Australia, why are they richer than us? They save more money, and they mine their minerals and their, and their, um, gas and, and, and coal.

Yeah.

I mean, some that I would argue with him about, um, till I was red in the face, 'cause he was [laughs] you know, he, he was very passionate about, uh, not building certain building projects down in the South Island.

Um, but you know, he believed in, in what he did.

He stood out, and even if I disagreed with him, I respected the fact that he took a position.

He was a great actor.

I really think...

I mean, he did everything from Jurassic Park to Shakespeare.

Mm.

Okay, now, Tr- uh, what do you reckon, Josie? Do you reckon, uh, can National win, though? Can, can they get a, a, a center-right government over the line if, if they're just doing the big stuff that's gonna pay dividends in maybe 10 or 15 years versus Labor, who's prepared to give you some money right now?

Yeah, but I think most people are craving these big ideas.

That's what we've seen, right? They don't actually necessarily respond well ...

I mean, yes, they want a bit of pocket money here and a free bus ride here and a GP visit.

But I think where National are, are, are doing well is that they're coming up with these big system changes, you know, whether it's KiwiSaver, and here with the trade deal, absolutely.

I mean- You know, New Zealand is so dependent on trade.

It's 50% of our GDP.

[laughs]

Can National win, though? Can, can they get a, a center-right government over the line if, if they're just doing the big stuff that's gonna pay dividends in maybe 10 or 15 years versus Labor who's prepared to give you some money right now?

Yeah, but I think most people are craving these big ideas.

That's what we've seen, right? They don't actually necessarily respond well.

I mean, yes, they want a bit of pocket money here and a free bus ride here and a GP visit, but I think where National are, are, are doing well is that they're coming up with these big system changes, you know, whether it's KiwiSaver and here with the trade deal, absolutely.

I mean, you know, New Zealand is so dependent on trade.

It's 50% of our GDP, and just to compare that, in the US, 25% of their GDP is based on trade deals.

So, um, it, this is hugely important to us, and that pivot to Southeast Asia and this list of countries including Bangladesh and others, Nigeria, um, that, that shift to Southeast Asia and to Africa, that's where the world's growth is gonna be-

What do you reckon, Josie?

None at all

...

Labor's announcements one I, I personally agree with.

Great to have apprenticeships.

Let's have more apprenticeships.

It's exactly what I would expect from Labor.

Uh, so it doesn't get you talking round the water cooler or whatever the equivalent is now in the way that National's announcement the week before or whatever it was on KiwiSaver did, because you don't expect National to be a great advocate of KiwiSaver and compulsory-

... and you're paying heaps of your tax, I reckon you start getting, y- you get grumpy at migrants and welfare bludgers.

Yeah, I mean, Josie, that has got to chase votes away, doesn't it?

Yeah, the h- I think the 160 is too low.

At the 45% high tax rate, that, that basically puts us up close to where, I think, UK, Australia both have a 45% top tax rate.

But it is on a higher level.

So I think in Australia it's, I think, 190,000, uh, and I think in the UK it's about, it would be equivalent dollars of about 200,000.

But I, but I do think, guys, you gotta be careful, right? Because I think they're right about the analysis.

There is a problem with inequality in our tax system.

Okay, Josie, what did you make of National's KiwiSaver, uh, policy announcement that it's compulsory? Do you like this or no?

It was

a stunning announcement.

And for that, I have to give Stuff and Sinead, you know, good credit for it because it really did absolutely blow our minds as we thought it would.

as they thought it would.

I think it's a great choice.

Look, he's intelligent.

He's curious.

I mean, these people need to be given an opportunity to roll out their policies as we get closer and then provide the costings.

What did you make of all of that, Josie?

Well, I actually think Rakesh Naidoo is one of the stronger candidates in that sort of top list.

So, I mean, it's all a bit messy, yes, but I think it'll pass and he'll end up being one of the stronger ones on a list which, looking at it, I'd have to say is predominantly driven by old identity politics and the sort of activist approach that the Labour Party used to take under the last government.

And Look at the constitution of the Labour Party, Andrew, and it's there to govern on behalf of working people.

It's not there to be a protest movement.

And what worries me about that list is the likes of, and you mentioned this, the likes of Craig Rennie, and I'm sure you might not like what Craig Rennie says if you're not a Labour supporter, but he's a serious heavyweight for Labour and he's way down in the 50s.

And he is not standing in a seat that's going to be easy to win.

And that's not good.

Josie?

Well, so one of the things I think politically that they did wrong at the weekend, Winston Peters and New Zealand First, was they buried what would be a really popular policy that actually probably all of us would agree on, which is to give $1,000 KiwiSaver to every child at birth, you know, to invest in savings.

That's something that, you know, actually we'd probably all be talking about that.

Whereas now we're talking about this controversial issue of do we buy back BNZ.

One thing I would say, I heard Barry talking to you, Heather, and saying, "You know, should never have been, should never have been, um, you know, it was a loss.

We made a terrible mess of it, had to sell it." Well, um, I don't think it should ever have been sold.

Um, we, we sold it.

... uh, wide support, which it does.

What do you think, Josie?

Well, I think Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Nawirapaka, I think they'll both win their seat no matter what, probably.

So if one of them wins their seat, I don't think they won't get anywhere near 5% again.

So I don't think they're gone, Heather.

I don't think this is the end of Te Pāti Māori.

But I think what's happening is not actually a bad thing.

I think it's quite healthy for Māori politics.

Josie, do you think that Winston Peters, or to what extent do you think Winston Peters will benefit from the right-wing populism that's sweeping Australia and the UK at the moment?