He was dashing around on Shoreline Time, but his analysis of where it went wrong for Donald Trump was absolutely fascinating.

If you look at the data from most of the major states, there was a big difference between blue state elections and red state elections.

Blue state elections did not have humongous turnout.

New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, very, very blue states did not have exceptionally high Democratic turnout.

In red states, you have presidential level turnout.

There are five states so far where the Democratic vote exceeds Kamala Harris's vote, not by much, but still presidential level turnout.

And conversion from independence, of course, also plays a key into that.

But are they going to fall back into it again? I

It was

like the most like I mean, it was pretty like vultures were swarming.

I was like, just come for us already.

But we were there, and while we were talking, they were literally just chatting about all the jobs that wouldn't exist anymore because of what they were going to do, what they were building.

I was like, yeah, Americans want jobs, and we'll figure it out, whatever.

And it was very gleeful and almost like a fait accompli.

Like, they were doing this, and there's nothing you could do about it.

Environmental concerns could itself be kind of a- Or it could be

Do you buy, if El-Sayed wins, that Mike Rogers, who is going to be the Republican nominee, has a very good chance to win? How does that change your calculus? We'll dive into some other parts of the Senate maybe a bit later in the conversation here, but tell me about Michigan with the primary Tuesday.

Yeah.

Haley Stevens' fake accent with the stick it to 'em is not really getting what people thought that it would.

Um, here's the problem with Haley Stevens.

It's not just polling.

Early voting data is showing that white college-educated and Muslim populations in the state are voting at much higher percentages than her bases, which is predominantly Black areas in the Detroit area.

Detroit's Black areas have had substantially lower turnout, so are the rural areas, and the bigger problem with Michigan-- with Democrats, period, is that the white working-class people who would normally back a Haley Stevens are all Republicans now.

What's gonna happen there? How do you feel about Republican-held seats?

The next shoe is gonna drop and Platner's gonna be out of this thing." I think a lot of shoes have dropped and nobody, [laughs] nobody really seems to care very much.

Well, I, I, I was just in DC, and I'm telling you, there are...

Uh, from what, everything I've heard from people who are legitimate, there are more shoes to drop that are actually even more serious than the allegations that already have come out.

So wouldn't be surprised.

That's why he keeps saying nothing real is coming out, but it is.

But it's not a matter of if they can win.

It's if someone can build a political, more political credibility by kicking another member of the party out.

Do we have yet any data of cheating to get, uh, what's his name, Spencer Pratt, out of this thing? Let's start with the mayor's race before we talk governor.

So- so we'll say six hundred thousand just to put us in the ballpark, um, but when you've let ten million in, not this administration obviously, but with 10 plus million coming in under Biden in four years people can do the, uh, back of the napkin math on this one, it's this other piece of changing enforcement priorities and the incentives for people to continue to stay here illegally that gives that number that you're citing looking at this data, where do you think they can actually increase this or what are the ways that they can take these numbers and get them even higher next year? Because I know the White House is- is considering a whole range of things.

Well, the first thing is we have the Supreme Court case, right? Which is over the birthright citizenship which is what Trump has done.

If that is gone, if the Supreme Court says that illegal aliens, tourists do not have rights to citizenship, they are not considered in the jurisdiction of which is the big five words of- of the 14th Amendment, if they're not in the jurisdiction of the United States because they're here illegally and their children are not automatically granted citizenship, that is going to be a light switch because that will dry up birth tourism in New York, California, Miami, other places you see a lot of people from across the world, China and Russia and Mexico coming to the United States to have a child as- as a citizen.

That will be the first thing the administration is pursuing that very, very strongly.

Another one is they'll just sit there and I mean what they really should do is sit there and- and withhold Medicaid payments to hospitals that are notorious illegal alien hub- hubs for illegal aliens to have children in places like in El Paso or in San Diego, places that they're going to use- because these births are all covered by the taxpayer, the- the hospital is not refusing them which is why you're seeing a massive number of border- of hospitals on the border going bankrupt year after year because Medicaid payments are not as high as private sector payments or- or private insurance payments.

Sitting there and asking for the full data of illegal alien births in these hospitals and with- and threaten to withhold Medicaid money unless those births are given, that could ramp up enforcement in those areas because they're not going, you know, they're not going to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, you know, to have a baby.

They're going to the same 20 cities across the country and that when- we can crack down on birth tourism by enforcing in those areas, you know, where people are having children, where- where- where people are at nine months pregnant showing up with a, you know, a six month long visa, a tourist visa, to have a child and they're not all illegally crossing the border, some of them are requesting to sit there and visit the United States at eight and a half months pregnant for several months in order to have a baby here.

Vance made, uh, because if we have 20 million illegals which is the number that Tom Homan has said we have, if millions of those illegals leave the, uh, country then in theory that would open up more housing and drive down the cost of housing, right? Do you buy into a correlation there at all or do you think it's more likely just connected with, uh, interest rates?

How nervous do you think I should be one week from election day? Because Democrats are pouring a ton of resources behind this crazy chick.

So the district is a district... it's for-... i- com-... former Congressman Mark Green's district.

It's a Repub-...

Mark Green won it by 21 points.

Trump won it by 22 points.

It's pretty Republican.

There's two basic concentrations of Democratic voters.

When do we start to get a sign on what the tea leaves, what the, the, the overall voting marketplace is gonna look like?

How nervous do you think I should be one week from election day? Because Democrats are pouring a ton of resources behind this crazy chick.

So the district is a district.

It's for- it con- it comes from Congressman Mark Green's district.

It's a Repub- Mark Green won it by 21 points.

Trump won it by 22 points.

It's pretty Republican.

There's two basic concentrations of Democratic voters.

When do we start to get a sign on what the tea leaves, what the, the, the overall voting marketplace is gonna look like?

... where we are?

No, you're, you're pretty on the money.

I mean, the, the, what we...

New Jersey's reporting county by county.

So it's very difficult for me to get a real estimate.

Remember, Ciattarelli only lost by 80,000 votes in 2021.

He lost election day, um, Republican versus Democrat turnout, right? Uh, there were more Democrats turn out on election day in 2021 than Republicans, but he won independence by such a large margin, it overwhelmed, uh, whatever Democrat turnout looked like.

At this point, does it have any impact? And, prediction from you, do you think that Mamdani is likely to get over 50%? In which case, all the talk about Sliwa versus Cuomo versus Eric Adams may not end up having mattered because if he gets over half the vote, then it doesn't matter how much split vote there was.

So, uh, just be, be aware.

So...

So let's go over some background information to begin with.

Democrats start off with an 860,000 voter advantage in the Garden State.

Now you may say, "Ryan, that's a lot of voters." Yes, but it is down significantly from November 2021, the last time Jack Ciattarelli ran for governor.

Republicans in the last four years since the last governor's election have gained 162,000 new voters, while Democrats have lost 47,000 voters in an election that Ciattarelli lost by only 84,000 votes.

If you look at the polls... first off for the polls, there were seven polls recently.

So, how is that playing out?

So, uh, just be, be aware.

So, so let's go over some background information to begin with.

Democrats start off with an 860,000 voter advantage in the Garden State.

Now you may say, "Ryan, that's a lot of voters." Yes, but it is down significantly from November 2021, the last time Jack Ciattarelli ran for governor.

Republicans in the last four years since the last governor's election have gained 162,000 new voters while Democrats have lost 47,000 voters in an election that Ciattarelli lost by only 84,000 votes.

If you look at the polls, first off the polls, there were seven polls recently.

Overall, Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee has led in five of them, averaging a lead of 5.5 points.

So how is that playing out?

Ryan, what else is really, uh, top of your radar for the data out there to tell us about how things are trending right now for Trump, the Republicans, the country at large?

Right.

So there's a new poll out that I find very, very interesting.

It's by a Democratic firm, so I'm gonna take it with a big grain of salt, but it is a question I have thought about over and over, and that is, Latinos who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Donald Trump and then 2024.

This is the group that will affect a number of congressional districts.

This is the group that we are redistricting Texas around, right? So the poll, which once again, is a Democratic pollster, and they weren't particularly amazing in- during 2024, but they were like, way, way off.

So it's called Equus Research.

If you assess the overall map, is one party more or less guilty of gerrymandering than the other? And how much movement do you think might happen before next year when I think most people agree the House is likely to come down to five or six seats? It's gonna be a fine line between who controls it.

We spoke to Republican consultant and host of the A Numbers Game podcast, Ryan Girdusky, a New Yorker, about who Mamdani is and how this relatively unknown candidate was able to pull off a win.

Mamdani was born in Uganda and lived until he was seven years old.

He bounced between a lot of major cities as the father was a prominent academic and the mother was a prominent film producer and director.

So yeah, he came from an immense privileged background his entire life, which is why in his mid-20s, you saw Zoran trying to create a rap career for himself before he entered the world of politics in 2018.

He didn't become a citizen until 2018, which, it's seven years ago.

He worked as a counselor for low-income nonwhite homeowners, uh, trying to, uh, stop evictions.

He won a seat in the New York State Assembly in 2020, and he was not in any leadership position.

Gardusky says Mamdani's views are not borne of his beliefs as a Muslim, but of his beliefs as a cultural Marxist.