R
Richard Knight
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APPEARANCES
1
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Oct 2, 2026
Lessons from history: How do long-term investors navigate market bubbles?
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Simon GergelGUEST
So there are times I think when you can see it in advance, but it is quite tricky to know quite how far enthusiasm for a theme or an idea is going to go.

Richard KnightGUEST
I think bubbles are a natural part of financial history and the whole capitalist system.

Richard KnightGUEST
Stock markets are wonderful things because they allow a pooling of capital from a very broad range of sources.

Richard KnightGUEST
But the downside of that, the great thing is that new technologies can be funded.

Richard KnightGUEST
um by well if we go back to the 18th century joint stock companies later canals 19th century railways then the um the information technology bubble and then of course tmt the turn of century you could even call you know elements of the great financial crisis the property bubble before then But what we're seeing there is the flip side of a lot of people being brought together for what starts as a very, very good idea and may create lasting benefits for society.

Richard KnightGUEST
Absolutely, the railways did in the 19th century, as did the TMT bubble, leaving this fantastic infrastructure for us.
5 MINS LATER
Building conviction with The Merchants Trust investment team
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John CroninHOST
And Richard, when was the last time you disagreed with Simon and Andrew on a particular investment idea, you know, full heartedly?

Richard KnightGUEST
It's hard to find a binary like that because we're dealing in risk all of the time.

Richard KnightGUEST
And anyone who claims to be absolutely certain about any one particular investment idea, whether positively or negatively, should probably be distrusted, you know.

Richard KnightGUEST
As much as we might be very passionate about ideas we like or very passionate about ones we don't sometimes, it's degrees of comfort with different types of uncertainty.

Richard KnightGUEST
And as Andrew put earlier, if there is strong disagreement from two other people on our small team, then that should tell us something about the degree of uncertainty we may have.

Richard KnightGUEST
And that doesn't mean we won't have a position at all, but it probably means we're a little bit more careful about the position size, perhaps, or perhaps doing a little bit extra due diligence than we might otherwise do.

Simon GergelGUEST
I think three works really well and that's probably been the biggest change over the last four or five years when Andrew joined us.

Richard KnightGUEST
Simon's been in the market a long time and I'm extremely fortunate to work with someone who's been through those cycles and seen so many points in time that can be extremely volatile, quite scary in the stock market for the holdings you've got, for your positioning.