Maybe it's this because the polling does look so outrageously bad for Republicans right now.

Yeah, I mean, that would be what pollsters and data folks call herding, that pollsters, not great ones probably, are directing their polls to align with the news cycle and sentiment.

Good pollsters will model, they'll correct for non-response bias or the inability to reach people.

voters via landline cell phone with their models.

I did find this echelon poll interesting because, look, the generic ballot lead for Democrats nationally, according to Nate Silver, on the average is about nine points right now.

State Navigate in Virginia, a Virginia-based data firm, has the generic ballot lead for Democrats at 20 points.

Virginia is obviously more blue-purple leading than some of these other states.

It's just so deeply ingrained in Texas, and it feels like it's hard to break, which makes me wonder about what you found or what you're reporting about, which is, are pollsters getting honest answers, or are they just getting the answers that people think they want to hear?

Peter Hamby, is the Democratic Party able to pick up the slack here? When young voters say that they're angry, are they looking to Democrats and saying, that's a party that inspires me, that's a party that I want to vote for, I believe that they're going to be better?

First of all, I need to give a shout out to John, who I've been collaborating with on these questions and wrote about this for Puck this week.

So I'm drawing a lot of my knowledge directly from him.

But look, you talk to voters in real life.

You talk to voters in focus groups.

The answer to your question is no. Democrats or young people generally have been identifying as independents and withdrawing from their party affiliation significantly in recent years.

They don't see either party as working for them.

Is this just a product of pollsters just really not wanting to be wrong and are trying to invent ways to say we could be wrong? Maybe it's this because the polling does look so outrageously bad for Republicans right now.

yeah.

So it's up there in Oskatook County or however you say it, 20 miles from Canada.

In this media market, guys, there are 28,000 people in this DMA.

There's two local news stations.

And campaigns are spending $489 per person in this media market.

And this is a Senate leadership fund.

It's, you know, what's the Senate majority pack group called? Win something or other.

Do you think that there is, you know, that that will be enough to fundamentally shift the dynamics here or not really?

But so I, I, I guess I wanna, like, tee you up here to talk about some of your recent findings in terms of, I guess, what you would say is, like, how a g- how Democrats feel about Democrats and then how the nation feels about Democrats and the sort of, like, media narrative around the Democratic Party right now, which should, given how poorly the GOP is doing, seems to me, like, should be on a lot stronger footing than they are.

Dylan, l- I wanna say one thing before getting into the Democratic data, which is heading into the midterms and then the presidential election, which will start immediately after that.

The midterms are in 70 days or something.

This is an election fundamentally about Donald Trump, who is the president, who is badly underwater He is 20 points underwater, I think, uh, with his net approval rating, underwater on every single issue: trade, immigration, which is shocking, that used to be his calling card, the economy, inflation, foreign policy.

A deeply, deeply historically unpopular president who has inflicted so many political wounds on himself from tariffs to Iran to his everyday blabber mouth, to corruption, scandals, et cetera.

And so that needs to be said out of the gate.

The reason I'm so fascinated by Democrats is that after 2024, we heard so much from electability Democrats, from leftist Democrats arguing over the future of the party, what they need to do after Kamala Harris and Joe Biden lost the election.

Sure

But so I, I guess I wanna, like, tee you up here to talk about some of your recent findings in terms of, I guess what you would say is, like, how a-- how Democrats feel about Democrats and then how the nation feels about Democrats and the sort of, like, media narrative Around the Democratic Party right now, which should, given how poorly the GOP is doing, seems to me like should be on a lot stronger footing than they are.

Dylan, the, I want to say one thing before getting into the Democratic data, which is heading into the midterms and then the presidential election, which will start immediately after that.

The midterms are in 70 days or something.

This is an election fundamentally about Donald Trump, who is the president, who is badly underwater.

He is 20 points underwater, I think, uh, with his net approval rating, underwater on every single issue: trade, immigration, which is shocking, that used to be his calling card, the economy, inflation, foreign policy.

A deeply, deeply historically unpopular president who has inflicted so many political wounds on himself from tariffs to Iran to his everyday blabbermouth to corruption, scandals, et cetera.

And so that needs to be said out of the gate.

Sure

Peter.

Yeah, look, I'm actually surprised this hasn't been more in the zeitgeist and conversation, actually, and I'm sure Adam will talk to this.

But most of the leading figures on the left are celebrated in corners of the press and the Democratic Party.

There's obviously been a surge of wins for DSA-style candidates, leftist insurgents in primaries across the country.

We know that.

Inside the party, and this is a dilemma for Democrats, many of these figures are popular.

AOC, Zoran Mamdani, Abdul El-Sayed, who doesn't identify as DSA but has similar positions to that wing of the party.

Peter, what does your reporting show you?

Mm-hmm.

Uh, mostly, like, 13 to 25-year-olds.

That's the age demo.

And that has become common and ubiquitous.

Uh, like, even the former head of the BBC, Deborah Turness, said the other day that creator journalism is a huge threat to traditional journalism.

And she's right, and it has been for a while, uh, whether it's on TikTok, Snap, Twitter, whatever, YouTube.

But I think, and I think the reason Snapchat brought me on in the first place, was I had one foot in traditional media in the sense that I cared about, you know, I went to journalism school, cared about presenting stories fairly and accurately.

Mm-hmm.

And in terms of it being a more transformative technology, talk to someone who uses AI every day and is also on a GLP-1 and ask them what's had a bigger impact on their life.

When will, when will state Medicaid-- [audience clapping] Like, when will Medicaid and Medicare cover, or do they already cover these drugs? Because they cost $300, $400 a pop from the pharma companies, so, you know, if you're Medi-Cal or a state Medicaid service, like, you would think that they would be giving these out at cheaper rates to people.

[laughs]

Josh Sha- Josh Shapiro was there having dinner with the Clintons, Bill and Hillary Clinton.

They see LeBron James across the room.

Bill says, "Come over here." Josh Shapiro stands up and starts jawboning him about, this is when he's a free agent, coming to Philly.

Uh, Politico reported later that he really put the work in with Rich Paul, his agent, whatever.

So look, Josh Shapiro, uh, might run for president, but if you look at the tweets after he, he got LeBron coming to...

So can you talk about that?

Yeah, no, um, I've, I have questions about this story, by the way.

We should...

I want to dig into whether Trump and Vance actually [laughs] like each other.

But, um, I think Vance has been in some trouble with Republicans nationally for some time.

We...

There's an Emerson College poll, national poll of Republicans that came out.

Right.

And I think that's bearing itself out right now.

Yeah, look, just stepping back, being vice president is very hard for anyone's political ambitions in either party.

And we saw this with Kamala Harris earlier in the Biden years when she was given the portfolio of dealing with southern border migration and she went.

to Central America and said, do not come.

And she said she hadn't been to the border, whatever, different time.

But, you know, you always have to answer for the president's policies.

And Donald Trump's policies are unpopular across the board.

Give us a lay of the land of where that lies and what the implications are of the states that have been chosen.

Help me understand the polling as you have digested it and why people don't believe their eyes and so much their feelings.

I mean, look, it's kind of been the case that I think voters forever have believed more in vibes than actual facts and data.

It's just what they feel.

That did surprise me a little bit because the most proximate way for people to process the economy as they think about it is probably gas prices or grocery prices and people drive by gas stations all the time.

But look, people it's a poll.

People don't recall things directly off the top of their head.

But the atmospherics are very clear.

Are you hearing that message from Democratic candidates?

right

and this is where this is where i'm being an old head too but it kind of reminds me of michael steele back in the day yeah he came in and i covered that race like inside the rnc and what he did to win that election was he cut deals with these state parties that weren't relevant hawaii the marianas islands or whatever just to get their vote in 168 person committee to win a race in the final round.

And so I remember this was a total boondoggle at CNN.

The first RNC meeting when Michael Steele took over it was in Honolulu.

And I was like, I talked to my boss.

I'm like, I guess I got to go to Honolulu.

And he sent me to Honolulu.

I'm like,

Why is Donald Trump pursuing this?

Uh, you know where, uh, it's also used is Florida, where Donald Trump voted by mail from his golf club, uh, i- in special elections, uh, in Palm Beach last year.

His excuse was, uh, "Well, I was busy." Well, that's why a lot of people [laughs] vote by mail and a lot of states have passed mail-in, uh, balloting.

The other thing to note, Katie, too, I'm not an expert in the law, but I'm pretty good at reading polls.

Mo- most voters in this country, like big majorities of voters, favor expanding access to voting.

A, a majority of voters, like 58%, according to a Pew Research poll last year, support, uh, allowing people to send in ballots by mail for any reason, and that's on top of other things.

66% of Americans according to that poll support, uh, felons being able to vote once they've served their sentences.

The Postmaster General, David Steiner, uh, dismissed Democrats' concerns, Peter.

... help him steal the election in 2020.

That's right.

That's right.

Then you have this rascally outsider spending all of his money, promising outlandish things, and he wins the primary despite Trump endorsing Burt Jones.

And I, I've been saying this recently a lot.

If you look at Iowa, look at Ohio, and also Georgia, this is another strength for Georgia, you've got this tandem going on on the Democratic ticket, where you've got a s- very strong, well-funded Senate candidate in Jon Ossoff, and, you know, Keisha Lance Bottoms, per- perhaps not as popular, but safe sort of governor choice who will play well in Atlanta and the, maybe some of the Atlanta suburbs and, you know, possibly among pockets of rural Black folks in that state, balancing each other out.

Like, Ossoff will need to get some Black voters out, and Lance Bottoms will help him.

Obviously.

He, we could say, could be the first AI candidate, right? The first person who is really utilizing AI in an innovative way politically.

Yeah, I tend to think of him first as the first really influencer candidate because we haven't seen that.

Like he is purely a creation of social media and the connected phone camera.

So I called him this in my piece, the first influencer candidate, because yes, he's the guy from the hills.

Yes, his supporters have made tons of crazy videos that have gone mega viral, helped them raise money, most of it from out of out of state and out of the city.

But since the hills, he nurtured his Snapchat account, his Instagram account, his Twitter account, his Facebook account, his YouTube account, his TikTok account.

And he was just documenting his life.

Well, I mean, what Kamala got in trouble for, like taxpayers should pay for transitioning prisoners.

He, we could say, could be the first AI candidate, right? The first person who is really utilizing AI in an innovative way politically.

Yeah.

I, I tend to think of him first as the first really influencer candidate 'cause we haven't seen that.

Like, he is purely a, uh, creation of social media and the connected phone camera.

He ...

So I called him this in my piece, the first inf- influencer candidate, because, yes, he's the guy from The Hills.

Yes, his supporters have made tons of crazy AI videos that have gone mega viral and helped him raise money, most of it from out of, out of state and out of the city.

Yeah

[laughs]

The problem is California's the best.

If everyone could afford to live in California, you would.

You definitely would.

Okay? Here's the problem.

Every year, and this goes back, I just looked it up, to 2001, um, but more... it's accelerated more recently.

About a quarter million people are leaving the state every year.

What, how is the Spencer Pratt thing happening?

Yes

... and Gavin Newsom.

And then, by the way, and this gets to what I think is a real question, is the Spencer Pratt phenomenon, and s- the phenomenon's limited.

He's only polling at, like, 15, 20%.

Actually, it should, I think it was around 20%, according to the most recent Emerson poll, ahead of Nithya Raman.

But is this just a white west side phenomenon? Is this just, you know, people in Brentwood and Palisades and other white pockets of the city, whether they can vote or not in the city itself, because we know Santa Monica and Culver and WeHo, you know, broke off many years ago, [laughs] Pasadena.

But people with gardeners, people with nannies who, you know, have kids and don't want to see, uh, homeless people or drug addicts near their schools, near their playgrounds.

Mm.

What do we do?

Yeah.

Well, that's, getting you to say that, I know, y- I mean, you're a sophisticated thinker about this stuff.

So y- it, it is important to say that there is a problem, and I want to say this isn't just my feelings.

This is me being a hack political journalist.

I, I should point out also in the piece, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which did a, d- has measured this and has kept track of incidents, um, 2025 was the first year ever that left-wing violence and plots, and/or plots, surpassed right-wing violence and/or plots.

Say, that's only eight plots.

What was your reaction to the Mills news and the, and, and the general state of play in these primaries?

Um, but before I get to that, I want to [laughs] know what you think about this and if this counts as part of what you were talking about.

Uh, no.

It do- this does not.

Uh, we, we live in a country with the First Amendment and as I point out in the article, uh, that I wrote that you mentioned, Jake, w- you know, it is very common in politics and sports, on Wall Street, for people to use, you know, language about, that, that, that is militaristic.

They're, people are battling.

They're in the crosshairs.

In a campaign, uh, you could 86 whichever presidential candidate you want.

Yeah.

You looked at it and just said like, "This is not survivable." Was that your view right, right from the jump?

Yeah, absolutely.

And, and part of it was the accusations were all credible, sounded serious, were contemporaneously documented at the time as the Chronicle and CNN reported.

And we should be clear, and you heard Swalwell in that video, he's talking about the a- assault allegations.

And there are now, I think, two of them, uh, including another one that came up afterwards, uh, that emerged from here in Los Angeles, I believe in 2018.

Um, there is nothing illegal about being a creep.

With the other accusations, we should say, he is drilling down, he's in trouble on, uh, accused of basically, uh, you know, sexually assaulting two women.

Um, what do you make of that, of that exchange about what have you heard, if anything, or what can you report about, about what people are, ah, saying about the Porter campaign's potential role in all of this? And, and then, you know, we can pitch forward a little bit and talk about what now in the California governor's race, especially on the Democratic side.

... or otherwise participated? Do you think there's enough to investigate?

investigate?I- it's, it's difficult.

The government did a terrible job investigating Jeffrey Epstein.

Going back to, you know, the Alex Acosta days when he was US attorney in Miami, I believe that was 2006, '7, and '8, tho- those years, the government failed the victims.

And then the gap between 2008 and his later conviction in 2019, that spanned many presidential administrations, many attorney general, many different Departments of Justice.

All along the way, the government failed, and there's not a lot of evidence lying around to prosecute some of these men.

Now, we're bringing many of those men in, and we've already deposed several of them, and I'll name a name right now, Lex Wexner.

What does his influence tell you about where the Democratic Party stands today? And I guess, is it despite those comments or because of those comments?

Yeah

...

but I think it, it, it reveals a lot about how voters think.

So we did a poll at Puck with Generation Lab, which surveys college students, which is not young people as a whole, only about 30% of people actually go to college, but it's a good sample here.

And this is among young people, not just young men.

But we asked college kids to describe, quote, "the impact of Trump's presidency on the country so far." 62% of students, college students, said Trump is making things worse.

8% said Trump is making things better.

And for him to start, you know, even now, putting the kernels of doubt on that is certainly something that we're, we're all keeping a close eye on.

Yeah.

Uh, I hate to say it.

Among, you know, not just young men, uh, but a lot of young people.

Part of that, by the way, is, is the Bernie left, who...

You know, when Bernie ran for president in 2016, um, on a real populous message, got a lot of currency with young people, and also exposed, I think, a lot of the distrust with both parties among young people.

So there's that.

And then more recently, obviously, we've seen Trump make a lot of cultural appeals to young men.

Yeah.

The bros, yeah.

You talk about gambling.

So anyway, Gavin with Prop 50 got a super majority legislature in Sacramento to rush through, over the summer, a new map.And this map is locked in, so basically it writes out five Republican seats to counteract Texas.

It's a huge gerrymander of the state, and it's on the ballot this fall, because in 2008 California voters, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, our friend's former boss, was the- was leading the charge on this, it's his, one of his most, you know, prized accomplishments, created an independent redistricting commission.

And that basically took the right to draw congressional boundaries outside of politicians' hands and put it into an independent commission.

By the way, for years, this is what we have all wanted and good government people have wanted, the left has wanted.

It's, independent redistricting is what should be the case.

... have dynamic candidates, right?