It's done.

Yeah.

Look, uh, the governor's race I think is, is also in question now, and, and Governor Abbott has been a very good governor, very popular governor, but he's in the fight of his political life right now against a pretty liberal Democratic candidate who's run a great campaign, by the way.

She's done a very smart job of, of making it possible.

She- I'm not sure she's gonna win by any means, but she's done a great job of making it possible that Democrats could win the Texas governorship, first time since Ann Richards, first time in several generations.

And, and it has to do with all these same issues, all these same issues, uh, about affordability and, and healthcare and about data centers.

And, um, uh, y- you're right, it would be g- it'd be a massive...

Yes.

Do you think that's going to translate to votes in places like Michigan and Minnesota?

Well, if you're a Republican trying to win in a blue state, you've got the mirror image problem of what we're seeing in all these red states that Democrats are trying to win.

Just the math only works for a victory if you can get a decent number of votes from the other side of the aisle.

So Mike Rogers needs Democratic votes just the way that Josh Turek in Iowa needs Republican votes.

And I'm a student of these ads because – man, those real voters are awfully good on camera.

And I'm curious what kind of training they got or whether they're actors, because I mean, you know, they all look like they did it in one take.

in

I live in New York and I've been to that store.

Do you think the optics are bad? Or could this be on the other side of jolting the arm for the GOP to say, hey, Republicans really are going after illegal immigrants if she is here illegally?

Yeah.

I'll get to the politics in a second.

I don't love the violation of the Justice Department rules.

It's not a law, but it's a pretty strong tradition.

You don't engage in overt actions of investigation against politicians, whether they're running for office or incumbents this close to an election.

I think one of the most dangerous things for a democracy and to slide towards a banana republic is to see either the strong impression of or truth of politicizing the justice process.

What are you hearing about how they feel?

Will there be a number two?

Not sure there will be.

I mean, remember, this is a president who's had a press secretary who literally never briefed.

We're approaching the midterms.

The president's going to be on the road a lot.

It looks like she's going to go with him.

So if she keeps the job, I'm sure she'll brief someday again, but I don't know when that will be.

By the way, something you also said relative to the former ambassador to Greece in your newsletter today.

Not even here

...

the most likely expli- the most likely explanation is some combination of preexisting condition, maybe his diabetes, and flu has just laid him low.

And, and it's, you know, it's hard to campaign.

I remember when Bill Clinton got the flu and a cold in '92, and, uh, you know, he had troopers and, uh, a state plane.

Like, he had a lot of infrastructure.

It was still hard for him, and he's a beast, to go around.

... to it, and how do you see that particular race playing out?

Not even you

...

the most likely expl- the most likely explanation is some combination of pre-existing condition, maybe his diabetes and flu, has just laid him low.

And, and it's, you know, it's hard to campaign.

I remember Bill Clinton got the flu and a cold in '92, and, uh, you know, he had troopers, and, uh, a state plane.

Like, he had a lot of infrastructure.

It was still hard for him, and he's a beast, to go around.

And how do you see that particular race playing out?

How, how should it have been covered according to you?

Well, this is a, this is a, a, a complicated example.

A good one, but a complicated one be- because, uh, some of the outrage over what President Trump said in which he discussed the, uh, war against Iran in the context of both high gas prices and the prospect that Iran would obliterate American cities using nuclear weapons.

Um, the, the, this example is some of the people who are expressing outrage over what the president said, I'm quite confident are expressing faux outrage.

They're not really outraged.

They know what he meant.

What he meant was, it's quite apparent that if the United States did not pay the sacrifice of higher gas prices, we might be dealing with Iran obliterating American cities.

You're not alone in having that perception.

stand at this moment with respect to where we are in the primary season, heading for November 2006.

We have just a couple states that are left to vote, and I think the fields are pretty set.

The way I'm looking at this is the way I try to always do it.

What are the asymmetries? Where is one side ahead, the other side behind? And I think in the last few weeks, Republicans have narrowed some of the asymmetries between them and the Democrats where they were behind, and I think they've increased some of the asymmetries where they were already ahead.

Still up in the air if Democrats will take the House back or not.

Less of a chance they'll take the Senate.

But I think the last week or so have seen Republicans make gains, and those gains are kind of snowballing to give them more confidence.

For worry-free hosting, Wayfair delivers.

I don't think anybody cares about Jack Smith anymore, but I want to hear your analysis of what unfolded and why it unfolded.

Well, the base cares about the deep state.

And I think people, I think you and I have discussed this before, the mistake people make about President Trump often for more than a decade is to take the issues that he and his team drive and say they're just red meat for the base.

A lot of the issues they talk about have great appeal with independent voters, for instance, the border, right? This one, I think, is largely if it's of interest to anyone, it is our largely interest, the base.

But they need the base to be psyched.

There are plenty of Republicans who are not currently who are including many who say they're MAGA, who are not psyched.

We had a guy on to a tonight the other evening from South Georgia, three time Trump voter, veteran, lives in a rural area, works in the farming community.

And may I say when I when I comment that we're five weeks out, I mean, from the conclusion, because voting is on as we speak.

Has anyone reached out to contradict your reporting?

Yes, just to correct you, Daily Mail, not Daily Wire.

I haven't been asked to write for the Daily Wire, but I would if asked.

The only people, people have reached out.

I've heard for now over 60 Republican strategists, office holders and candidates.

And their replies are in two categories.

One, the group that says, yeah, you have it just about right.

How much time is there, and what would it take?

Check responses, setup required, compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

the top of their hierarchy, James Blair, the president's top political advisor, who has the authority to control under some Supreme Court rulings and the president's empowerment, control not just the money, where it's spent, but how it's spent.

The Democrats have no analog for that.

And so there's a and the president has the biggest bully pulpit.

He has the biggest capacity to to try to change events in a way that would help his party.

And so Republicans have some cards to play.

And and those cards in some cases are are under are familiar.

And he's been unable to find that ticket so far.

That's that's part of what they're hearing on the ground.

Emily, no doubt.

And Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the two Democratic leaders, they're not that prominently visible out there.

And a lot of people complain about them, both in the media, Republicans, Democrats.

But I will say that if this election does go in a very positive way for Democrats, they will get partial credit for coming up with this.

I don't know if it's a brilliant insight, but it's something that had to happen for them to message because they don't have very much positive things to say.

Right.

Are Republicans who in the Trump era have done a little bit better with low propensity, quote unquote, low propensity voters? I mean, that could just be totally crushed in a way that it wasn't quite in 2018.

We're, we're looking at, uh, the New Jersey coastline after this three-day nor'easter kind of situation.

Yeah.

And now again, there are a lot of races that are close.

The good news for Republicans, besides their money advantage, is these...

The Democratic Party brand is crap.

Democrats, uh, have a lot of inexperienced candidates.

They've not played at this level.

Um, but what did you make of the whole fight with the media? It just seems like Trump's normal go-tos may not be working the way they have.

Will you amplify?

Yeah.

You know, I've I've been throughout my career.

I'm not a partisan.

As you know, I just look to do reporting with people in both sides and independent analysts and try to figure out what's going on.

In 2016, I'll remind people I said Donald Trump had a good chance to win 2024.

I'll remind people I said Trump's probably going to win.

Beyond that, can you, I mean, just, you know, spitballing, think of something that might change the trajectory of where it appears we're headed?

Loser.

Look, everything you said I agree with, and I'll just add a few more.

I'll put a finer point on one thing.

We've never had a campaign where one side had over $1.5 billion more, not $1.5 billion to spend, $1.5 billion more than the other side.

And although some people in our business say money doesn't matter as much as it used to, that's a big delta.

Number two, there's a weakness on the Democratic candidates.

Karl Rove and others will tell you, any professional, candidate quality matters.

minute, but the final polls leading into Election Day had her up by 20.

What's the mood in Washington, and do you think that mood is accurate?

I haven't lived in Washington in 35 years, so I can't tell you what the mood in Washington is, but I'll tell you what the mood in America is.

The mood in America is gas prices are too high, everything costs too much, the Iran war was a big mistake, and a message should be sent to the president.

I, I, I have a very, uh, uh, like bifurcated view of where we are and where we're going.

Unless James Blair makes the best negative ads of all time and builds the best turnout operation of all time, there will be a blue tsunami that will wipe out not only nearly everyone, not everyone, but nearly everyone being discussed as in danger of losing as a Republican, but people who aren't even being talked about now.

I'm not predicting that, and I'm not rooting for it, obviously.

My reporting extensively with Republicans and looking at the current data is Republicans could lose nine Senate seats Republicans could lose 35 House seats.

... exceptions to that rule?

And this day, I will tell you, I dropped the ball, and yet he still found a way to be here.

What a champ.

What a champ, Mark Halperin.

I mean, I don't know how you're in charge of anything, dude.

You're as organized as my nine-year-old.

Two quick things.

First of all, I have an incredible imitation of my friend from CNN, Harry, and it all starts with the key, the word, woof.

What's the mood in Washington, and do you think that mood is accurate? I

Do you think Republicans got any sort of bump from the midterm convention, Mark?

I think the biggest effect was the fundraising.

You don't see that on camera, but behind the scenes, my understanding is there were a lot of strong meetings.

You see in the fruits of it in some connection to Elon Musk, I reported plans to go very big into Texas with money and not just on ads, but on organizing, get at the vote.

So I think that was a positive effect, number one, to have those private meetings where they convinced a lot of the biggest wallets in the party to open up wide.

Second, I think you may not see it in the polling right away, but I think moving from a message of we're on defense to we're on offense, I think valuable.

And then again, it may not work, but the president has been saying for a while, vote like I'm on the ballot.

Do you believe that polling?

Thoughts on him?

I could move him to number one.

We should be controversial.

Again, my sources are divided on him.

Some want him off the list, say it's implausible he'll be nominated.

Some think he should be in the top three.

Look, he's running.

I

Loser.

Um, look, everything you said I agree with, and I'll just add a few more.

I'll put a finer point on one thing.

We've never had a campaign where one side had over a billion and a half dollars more.

Not a billion and a half dollars to spend, a billion and a half dollars more than the other side, and although some people in our business say money doesn't matter as much as it used to, that's a big delta.

Number two, there's a weakness on the re- Democratic candidates.

Karl Rove and others will tell you, any professional, candidate quality matters, and while Republicans have some weak candidates as well, Democrats in some of these key ra- House and Senate races have weak candidates.

Wait a minute, but the final polls leading into election day had her up by 20.

I'm surprised.

it's august there's going to be a low turnout primary who's the most likely to turn out it's the people who are that part of the party you know in in oklahoma uh clinton versus uh trump hillary got a third of the vote that means if you walk down the street in oklahoma city uh one in every three people voted for hillary there are liberals everywhere including in new hampshire and again in an august primary where you wouldn't expect a lot of independence to show up or september primary sorry not august the summer primary That's where the party is now.

And are New Hampshire Democrats as liberal as California Democrats or Manhattan Democrats? No.

But there are plenty of them that are.

I mean, and again, you go back to Bernie.

Bernie did very well in the New Hampshire primary.

And that's a robust primary with a lot of independents participating.

How's this fight working out in your opinion?

I want to ask if there was ever a moment when you realized that you had – sort of transition from covering the political establishment to becoming part of it? Because I think there for a while, and I think even now, you're very much affixed as one of the most well-known parts of what most average people would call the political establishment in this country.

Well, I made references earlier when I said I talked about growing up in the D.C. area.

I grew up in Washington.

I've lived in Manhattan almost my entire adult life.

And I went to Harvard College, Harvard University.

That makes me a charter member of the establishment.

But I've also covered politics in 49 of the 50 states.

Tell us, do people have legitimate concerns about data centers, or are we living through a mass hysteria that is fueled by online propaganda, which is closer to the truth?

I want to ask if there was ever a moment when you realized that you had sort of transitioned from covering the political establishment to becoming part of it because I think there, there for a while, and I think even now, uh, y- you're very much, uh, a, affixed as one of the most well-known parts of what most average people would call the, the political establishment in this country.

Well, I, I made references earlier, uh, when I started talking about growing up in the DC area.

I, I grew up in Washington.

I've lived in Manhattan, um, almost my entire adult life, and I went to Harvard College, Harvard University.

Uh, that makes me a charter member of the establishment.

Uh, but I've also covered politics in forty-nine of the fifty states And I, I covered, uh, President Trump in, in 2015 and 2016 rallies and talked to voters in more than 30 states.

And I, and I, and I think that, um, uh, again, to the extent I've had success in my career, I understand the establishment pretty well.

Tell us, do people have legitimate concerns about data centers, or are we living through a mass hysteria that is fueled by online propaganda? Which is closer to the truth?

Is that gonna be a, a non-starter for them? What's your newest take on this? Freshest intel.

Yeah.

Um, thank you for your kind words.

I think there's two big questions looming over, uh, this pr- this forming field, separate from the question of who's actually gonna run.

One is, who's gonna fill the progressive lane? There are three names you hear.

Bernie Sanders, maybe too old.

AOC, maybe doesn't wanna run.

Nice

Is that going to be a non-starter for them? What's your newest take on this? Freshest intel.

Yeah.

Thank you for your kind words.

I think there's two big questions looming over this forming field, separate from the question of who's actually going to run.

One is, who's going to fill the progressive lane? There are three names here.

Bernie Sanders, maybe too old.

AOC, maybe doesn't want to run.

If Abdul Al-Sayed wins his Senate race, could he plausibly just very abruptly rise up as a potential frontrunner or any of these other high profile candidates they have running for Senate governor in purple or red states? They