And, I mean, what do you find in those early years that sort of, I mean, I guess the watch story is one of them, but what do you find there that kind of points in the direction of where he lands later?

So I think there's two dimensions to it.

There's the early reading that he does.

I mean, I have a great interest in the intellectual history of leaders and the worldview being developed.

So he's reading a lot very early about Churchill, about Roosevelt, about Hitler.

These are leaders that change the tectonic plates of history, that move them around.

Clearly, that grabs him.

So, Australia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, although Keating might have preferred community...

And heading to Australia was the world's most powerful man.

Tell us about that moment.

So President George H.W. Bush, or Papa Bush as he's known, was coming basically to thank a dutiful ally for helping the United States for their assistance during the first Gulf War, right, when Saddam Hussein rolled his tanks into Kuwait.

Now, H.W. Bush had established a close fraternity, if you like, with Bob Hawke.

He was expecting to see Hawke.

He was expecting it to be basically a trip about, you know, playing golf.

They might have had a bit of a chat about the export enhancement program, which was affecting Australian farmers.

I wonder after writing this book about him, and it's a terrific book, what you think about that idea

Tell us about that moment.

So President George H.W. Bush, or Papa Bush as he's known, was coming basically to thank a dutiful ally for helping the United States for their assistance during the first Gulf War, right, when Saddam Hussein rolled his tanks into Kuwait.

Now, H.W. Bush had established a close fraternity, if you like, with Bob Hawke.

He was expecting to see Hawke.

He was expecting it to be basically a trip about, you know, playing golf.

They might have had a bit of a chat about the export enhancement program, which was affecting Australian farmers.

But it was essentially, you know, a trip of bonhomie.

I wonder after writing this book about him, and it's a terrific book, what you think about that idea

I mean, how do you think that shaped the figure that became the Keating of the 80s and then obviously into the Prime Ministership?

Yeah, so I think, you know, here is someone who was born in 1944, so he grows up in the shadow of the Second World War.

His early heroes, as you say, are Churchill.

Churchill of the 1930s, not so much the Churchill... of Gallipoli or the Churchill of 1942 in Singapore.

He loves Churchill's gallantry and his fighting spirit.

On the other hand, he loves Roosevelt's idea of a unitary world, you know, and I think he's starting to see in this early reading that he does as a young man that Roosevelt is telling the European empires that it's all over, right, that the era of decolonisation is starting.

Now, Look, I think it takes a while for Keating to put all this together into a world view, but certainly you're right.

But that's really central to a lot of this story, isn't it?

Please welcome them again to launch Grand Ambition, Paul Keating's Global Vision for Australia, Professor James Curran and the Honourable Paul Keating.

Well, thank you very much, Anne Mossop, and thank you to the Sydney Writers' Festival for all the hard work that has gone into putting this event on.

Thank you to my publisher, Simon & Schuster, who were an absolute dream of professionalism to work with.

Thank you to Paul Keating especially for making the time tonight, and thanks to all of you for being here and sharing in this event.

There were three reasons why I wanted to write this book.

One was about I wanted to see what the potentialities of government could be, The second was that I wanted to understand the potentialities of political power.

And the third, I wanted to explore what's possible for Australia.

three or four times, you know.

How relevant are the ideas of a Prime Minister from thirty years ago at a time where everything is shifting, where China is more powerful and militarized and the world order is being turned on its head thanks to Donald Trump?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Exactly.

Look, a very good question, and this is often the criticism that is made off Keating and has been made by the current Foreign Minister Penny Wong among others, that Keating was living in a different time.

These were completely different circumstances.

Great power rivalry is back in a way that it really wasn't in the early 1990s when he's dealing with the end of the Cold War.

That's the sin they've got as big as the US They will never – the Americans will never condone or accept a state as large as them You know And that’s what China presents

So this could very well end up being an issue that bubbles up as Australians prepare to go and vote in a few weeks' time.

Well, I think it's interesting to note that security is once more to the fore of the public debate right on the cusp of an election.

Now, this happened in 2022 when virtually on the day the election was called, we had the announcement that the Solomon Islands were going to do some kind of deal with China in terms of access to ports there and a security agreement of some type.

Now, that occasion said that the Morrison government, which had been so keen to project its China pushback credentials, had taken its eye off the local Pacific ball, as it were.

Now we've got the Labor Party in government, which for three years has been so careful not to open up really much daylight between themselves and the coalition opposition on matters like how to handle China or the US alliance, and particularly the AUKUS agreement.

All of a sudden now, the presence of Chinese ships off the Australian coast and the broader strategic situation with Trump means that national security will be an issue at this election.

Lisa, the other point here is that the US is actually now stepping up the pressure on Australia.

Will any other country move in to fill the leadership vacuum left by the United States?

In light of everything that's gone on in the last few weeks and days, do you think that both Russia and China will be emboldened with resulting pressure on NATO countries from Russia and on Taiwan from China also?

Look, I do think they would be emboldened to this extent, that they would see the wobbles in allied capitals about America's credibility and its reliability as an alliance partner.

I don't think Putin, who has after all struggled to hold the 18 to 20% of Ukrainian territory that he has, I don't think he's in any fit state to start thinking about other military designs on Poland or the Baltic states, for example.

And he would know as well, maybe this wouldn't trouble Putin given the nature of his character, but he would know as well that this, of course, would humiliate Trump if he was to take the deal and get everything he wants virtually in Ukraine and then embark on putting back together the old Soviet empire.

As for the Chinese, again, I think they would be holding off and waiting.

I mean, they're certainly not holding off in retaliating on Trump's tariffs.

but I think they would perhaps think that Trump is still someone that they can manipulate.

So in general, do you think that the bilateral relationship between Australia and America in the second Trump term is going to be very difficult for us?