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Jake Ciely

Jake Ciely

Sep 1, 2026

7:27
Maybe the Seahawks throw the ball a little more than we're expecting.
7:30
I think that's the bigger takeaway here.
7:32
The Price, I'm with you.
7:33
I'm not that worried about it.
7:34
I just, when we did the athletic football show draft, that's a lot of words there, uh, we...
7:39
I, I brought it up on that show because people are talking about Kenneth Gainwell.
7:42
And I like Kenneth Gainwell, but at the same time, I still like Rocky Irving 'cause everybody's talking about third down usage and all that type of stuff.

33 MINS LATER

40:22
... taking, taking a flyer on either of them with a team that could have a quarterback who's efficient and throw efficient deep balls on a team that's gonna be down the entire time.
5:49
... it's gonna blow up your strategy
5:50
strategyAs my voice starts to blow up here.
5:53
So- Welcome to puberty, Clay.
5:55
[laughs] Yes, apparently.
5:56
I just got it.
5:57
It's gonna be a tough time for your life.
5:58
[laughs] I heard you guys g- didn't get to pick your draft spot, and I was like, "Oh my God.

10 MINS LATER

16:02
Oh.
20:53
Let's talk Kalen Black, let's talk Jordan James, let's talk the ghost of Isaac Guerendo.
20:59
[laughs] I think that's the best way to put it right now, is just it sounds like it is the ghost of Isaac Guerendo, is that we've had opportunities and it looked fun for short, brief spurts, but there's been other options, and they were talking up Jordan James this entire time, the excitement behind him, and it came down to the fact that we're still waiting for him to return.
21:16
And it's really the testament of who's next up.
21:19
And we've played this game before, where it's who's next up and then that person gets, like, one game in and doesn't end up being the right guy, and that's always the danger.
21:27
And that's why, that's why I went back and forth on this, Chris.
21:29
I think this is actually a good conversation to have, is, like, if somebody wants to take Kalen Black in the 10th, 11th round, I'll let them do it because I'm not going to do it, because I don't think it's clear as of today and I don't think we know definitively that he's the best option up if something happens to Christian McCaffrey, which I know everybody's terrified of.
21:46
It's the appeal that we know what Shanahan does.

11 MINS LATER

32:45
Number three on your list.
12:25
Nice hands, Marty.
12:25
Yeah, everybody wants to be first.
12:26
Everybody wants to be first to everything.
12:28
Everybody's like...
12:28
I mean, I, we saw the accounts that supposedly are sports accounts being like they suspect an ACL just because they wanna be able to, when the news actually breaks, be like, "Ha ha, I told you." Like, and then they delete the tweets and they're not there anymore.
12:40
The real truth is, and I did it last night and I still have it the same, because we don't know it's a high ankle sprain.
12:46
That's the biggest question here.

38 MINS LATER

50:38
[laughs]
46:32
Uh, all right, Jake, let's go to your next player here.
46:35
Yeah, I'm gonna go to a rookie who, this is another one that I, I'm enjoying the fact that the injury has caused his cost to come down, and he was already down.
46:42
He was already the third rookie wide receiver off the board, but Mekhi Lemon, and it's really the ability here.
46:47
I know Dontayvion Wicks is getting talked up recently in camp and everything like that, but I think we know, similar to, like, the other players we talked about before with Hubbard, like, we know what Wicks is.
46:56
And Wicks is a decent talent.
46:57
We've seen him flash with the Packers.
46:59
Fitz knows this.

11 MINS LATER

57:53
Jake, who are you wrapping us up with?
27:05
Right.
27:05
But, like, I was gonna bring that into is, like, the projections, like, the w- you, you bring up at the beginning of the show, and you're talking about, like, one of the better rankers, and, like, um, mine aren't, like, on fantasy pros.
27:14
That has to do with, like, athletic rights and stuff like that.
27:16
But anyway, point being is, like, still ranking, still one of the better projections, I believe.
27:21
Um, part of the reason I built the projection spreadsheet, I p- I would wish it could be better, but as of right now, that's all we've got, um, because I'm not a, I'm not that computer savvy when it comes to programming.
27:32
Um, but it's like you could take my projections and change them because I believe what I've watched.
27:37
I believe, um, I'll give you example.

25 MINS LATER

52:28
[laughs]
9:22
Oh,
9:22
there you go.
9:24
Good night, everybody.
9:29
It came down to the fact like whether you, cause you cover rookies too, is that at the time in the draft, everybody sat there and was like, what? When the dolphins took Caleb Douglas, because everybody, nobody had him going that high in the draft.
9:41
Nobody thought that much of him.
9:42
I still thought he was like a Cedric Tillman type.
9:44
And we see how that's worked out for the Browns.

26 MINS LATER

36:03
So who would you rather have between Mitchell and Fields? And if you want, you can also make a case for both of them.
26:16
Yeah.
26:16
I like the fact of Warren as his third running back, Burton as your third wide receiver, which, you know, two weeks ago Burton was most people's second wide receiver.
26:24
Uh, and then Fannin's one of my favorite mid-round tight end targets.
26:27
Uh, I think he could lead the Browns in targets, uh, even though quarterback play [laughs] is garbage.
26:33
Um, but to go back to my...
26:35
Like, I just love how that fell.
26:36
Definitely came down to the wide receivers kind of falling down the board and a lot of running backs going.

17 MINS LATER

43:23
Mm-hmmAnd then, and then Caleb Douglas, uh, Jake, being your other pick there, do you think he's wide receiver one in Miami? Are you buying the preseason hype? What do you make of that receiving room?
32:40
Oh, that's a good place to get lobster.
32:42
[laughs] Uh, we...
32:43
It was so good that when we went to Maine, my wife was pissed that she thought [laughs] like, she's like, "This Maine lobster's not even as good." Like, I'm, I'm so upset about it.
32:51
But anyway, so shout-out to everybody in Canada for that.
32:53
But Chase Brown, I have at six at running back, one spot behi- behind James Cook, and that's because I compare a lot to what he's doing to James Cook.
33:00
He's better already in the receiving department.
33:02
But why I bring up James Cook is because they're both super attractive offenses.
35:37
And I like the fact he got Diggs now, too, so.
7:12
Eh
7:12
... potentially has the lead from week one? Travis Etienne.
7:15
Like even in a split backfield.
7:16
I'm somebody that's like worried that Kamara's not gonna go away, and I'm taking all these guys who, one, who we know, two, we know are starting the season.
7:23
And then to Pat's point, like what do we know when Love comes back? Allgeier's gonna get the workload.
7:28
Allgeier's been an RB1 in fantasy.
7:30
Very volume reliant, but in his first season before Bijan Robinson got there, it's not like they even have to force Love to have the ball when he comes in.

14 MINS LATER

22:04
Does he get bumped up into that area now?
22:57
Oh, okay.
22:57
This was like, yeah, like, get my pick in.
22:59
Like, this was, like, it was easy, easy peasy.
23:01
Uh, I just did a article on The Athletic.
23:03
It's my guys.
23:04
Uh, one of my guys is Lad McConkie.
23:06
I truly believe that.
24:30
Quin
32:05
'Cause like on first glance, I think anyone looks at that and be like, "Man, that is terrible." Then I went through their schedule and I found them nine wins pretty easily, honestly.
32:14
[laughs] Well, so here's the thing.
32:15
It's an insane stat, and I- obviously I expect it to be closer this year.
32:18
But Jonathan Taylor in wins last year, 30 points per game.
32:21
30 points per game.
32:23
As it would've blown out Christian McCaffrey for the number one running back position.
32:27
But the losses, 10 points per game.

48 MINS LATER

80:33
It's not where he's going.
3:27
What do you think about these year two running backs who were first round picks in the NFL draft just a year ago?
3:33
I'm actually a little bit more excited for Hampton than I am for Jeanty, despite the recent talk of, "Oh, we're gonna use everybody in the backfield," and everything with Mike McDaniel.
3:41
And like, I mean, he used multiple running backs with the Dolphins, and they were both just fine there, so I'm not that concerned about this recent talk.
3:47
Actually, I hope it drops his price a little bit because I feel once we start paying that first round price for Hampton, now we're buying basically all the risk in case that he has, like, a Jeanty-like season from last year this year, and he's still an RB2, but now you're kinda buying that he has to break out.
4:01
So I would love the fact if it dropped.
4:03
I mean, we're talking about what McDaniel can do with his weapons, and I do think Hampton is gonna easily be the lead.
4:09
I'd go back to last year's draft.

19 MINS LATER

23:16
Um, all right, uh, five minutes for Tuten and, and Brooks.
50:34
Mekhi Lemon actually has a chance to be a guy you feel good about having in your lineup every week.
50:40
All right, uh, Jake, you did not disagree.
50:42
You were hoping there was some disagreement, but you think Mekhi Lemon is also too low.
50:46
A- at th- this fact that he's in the 40s.
50:48
Like, if he was still in the 30s, uh, I think a lot of, like F- Fitz says, the injury.
50:53
Injury's concerning for a rookie.
50:55
It's concerning for any rookie, whether a running back, wide receiver, whatever it is.

9 MINS LATER

60:21
... that you think he is under-ranked here.
Ryan WormleyHOST
32:05
After you make your pick, I, I wanna hear what you think about Brooks, 'cause I've heard it from these other guys before.
32:11
Taking Reid over, over Golden, and I like him better, but I have a weird feeling that Matthew Golden is somehow gonna outproduce him playing way more than Jayden Reid this year.
32:22
Um, but Jonathan Brooks, yeah, I, I huge fan of, of Jonathan Brooks.
32:26
I, I think really what it comes down to, whether or not you like Jonathan Brooks, is, like, what your take on him coming out of Texas was.
32:32
Uh, and I was such a big fan of him.
32:34
He was, you know, the top running back in that class.
32:36
I thought he was...

19 MINS LATER

Ryan WormleyHOST
51:38
He's just reuploading them [laughs]
16:20
[laughs]
16:20
...
16:20
in one day.
16:21
Um, but it really comes down to the projections aren't terrible.
16:25
The projections are a backend RB1, but that was my argument.
16:28
That was my argument to Fitz, is that I see him more as a backend RB1 than I do as top six, seven, and he was at six at the time of this.
16:36
And, uh, the projections, the rankings, the ADP were lower.

13 MINS LATER

Tara RobertsHOST
29:11
But Jake, talk to us about player number three here, Harold Fannin Jr., tight end five in ADP, overall 64 there.
57:35
Jake, what's your take on Jalen Waddle?
57:38
Yeah, I'm closer to the 21 than I, it sounds like you guys are, mostly because I just look at Sean Payton's offense, and I know what Jalen Waddle can do and can be.
57:48
Uh, he's not purely the big slot that Sean Payton's generally preferred, which is what we all talked up the fact that, oh, Patrick Bryan's fit even though Patrick Bryan has limitations in his game.
57:57
But we've seen that Payton kept trying to make that a thing with different options.
58:01
Troy Franklin at time.
58:02
It's not that.
58:02
I'm just saying, like, all these options.

11 MINS LATER

69:14
Yeah.
Ryan WormleyHOST
4:13
... all right, Jake, who's your first mid-round must-have?
4:17
Uh, so for this running back, he's going right in lockstep with another one, which I thought he'd be going much further behind because one's getting the attention and he's not.
4:25
Everybody's paying attention to Blake Corum.
4:27
Back to back, Kalen Naungai's gone there right with him, which he should be.
4:31
And that's where I wanna say with Kalen Naungai, similar to Blake Corum, we have the opportunities for more touches this year.
4:38
He actually finished higher than him overall and in fantasy points per game, higher than Corum last year playing for the Bears.
4:43
And we assume their offense can take another step forward.

7 MINS LATER

11:54
Mm-hmm
Ryan WormleyHOST
11:56
Uh, Jake, what's your approach to tight end? Is it sort of early or late? Are you more interested in some of these middle round guys, you know, Pitts or LaPorta? Uh, or do you have a similar approach to Deebo?
12:05
Deebo?It's the same as Debro.
12:08
A little different overall, but it's the same in the fact that it's the same as quarterbacks for me.
12:13
I either want the top tier or I'm just gonna wait till the end game.
12:16
Because that middle group, they...
12:18
It- it's not so much that top tier to the end game, it's the middle group to the end game.
12:23
That even the middle group of the players that do hit, there's a lot of end game players that hit very closely.
Ryan WormleyHOST
16:23
Jake, let's go to your final one for the early rounds.
Ryan WormleyHOST
13:40
Who do you have?
13:41
All right, yeah.
13:42
I'm gonna go mm, a little bit different, uh, 'cause I'm gonna go a rookie, which is, we're not talking a rookie show.
13:46
It's been a while since Debo haven't talked rookies.
13:48
But...
13:49
And it's not somebody I'm overly enamored with.
13:51
Uh, uh, the com- the comparison I made for him when we talked way back then is I actually thought that Nick Singleton, Nicholas Singleton for everybody out there, was very similar to Tevin Coleman, which Tevin Coleman's has his limitations even back in the day when he...

17 MINS LATER

Ryan WormleyHOST
31:03
Uh, Jake, who is your receiver?
3:20
Who do we got?
3:21
Yeah, it's no messing around, but it's no messing around as I would love to be able to pick fifth because I feel like he's gonna be there every single time.
3:26
He's fifth overall on Fantasy Pros, fifth in ADP.
3:30
But I would take him fourth and potentially even third.
3:32
And again, we're, as you said, first round's tough.
3:35
You know, I do like James Cook late in the first round.
3:37
Uh, you can make some arguments for others if Christian McCaffrey makes it to eight or nine.
7:52
But who is I ain't messing, I gotta get this guy for the pick to target in the second round?
5:02
Right
5:02
... team, and something we've referenced time and time again, you notice, shout out to the late, great Mike Tagliere, is about how hard it is for an RB1 to happen on a bottom five offense, let alone a bottom 10 offense, but just the bottom five offense in general.
5:13
So of course, we think things are gonna get better.
5:16
But let's just take the most simplistic version of this.
5:19
Points per game, RB 17.
5:20
For him to get where he's going, he's now RB six at the turn of the first round in, in, uh, in the rankings, and the ADP's a little bit behind it, but those are the rankings that I'm looking at.
5:30
And to take him there, you're talking about three, three and a half, maybe four points per game jump off of last year.

38 MINS LATER

43:07
Oh, wow.
21:52
So why is it wheels up for Jordan Addison this season because of that?
21:55
Because everybody's super excited about Justin Jefferson, and yet seem to be forgetting Jordan Addison.
22:00
And let's talk about Jordan Addison's first two season.
22:03
Top 24 in total points, top 30 in fantasy points per game both seasons, and then last year happened.
22:09
And we're all like, "Well, you know what? Justin Jefferson gets a pass." That quarterback situation could not have been worse.
22:14
J.J. McCarthy is what some of us expected him to be.
22:18
Carson Wentz was better for what anything could be on this team.

14 MINS LATER

36:02
Father time is undefeated, but so far he has the same record as Derrick Henry.
21:31
So why is it wheels up for Jordan Addison this season because of that?
21:34
Because everybody's super excited about Justin Jefferson, and yet seem to be forgetting Jordan Addison.
21:39
And let's talk about Jordan Addison's first two season.
21:42
Top 24 in total points, top 30 in fantasy points per game both seasons.
21:47
And then last year happened, and we're all like, "Well, you know what? Justin Jefferson gets a pass." That quarterback situation could not have been worse.
21:53
JJ McCarthy is what some of us expected him to be.
21:57
Carson Wentz was better for what anything could be on this team.

14 MINS LATER

35:43
But so far, he has the same record as Derrick Henry, this guy.
8:24
Good
8:24
... that we're on opposite sides.
8:25
I know.
8:25
I, I actually think his spot is fair at 13, 'cause that's where I would put him.
8:29
Because of all those names that he mentioned, I think the biggest telltale sign is last year with Jeanty.
8:34
And I'm not trying to play recency bias, because I, I, I will argue with Fitz on this, like with him, is the fact that he's right and probably Jeanty is what's clouding this a lot too.
8:43
It's not just the backfield, but everybody saw what just happened with Jeanty and are like, "Man, we're gonna see this all over again." But I think that's the real concern is because he was RB 17 in points per game, and those are running backs that played at least eight games.

18 MINS LATER

27:26
Right.

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