Hmm.

Weeks 12 through 18 last year, the Atlanta Falcons had the fourth highest single high rate in the NFL.

59.4% of their snaps.

Why does this matter? It's 'cause DK Metcalf, man, it's been easy.

Know when to start him and know when to not start him is single high matchups, fire up DK.

Two high matchups, sit DK.

This is going back all the way to freaking Seattle, dude, and last year the splits held true.

Mm-hmm.

Where are you on the performance last night?

I'm not freaking out about Drake Bay at all.

I think it was...

That entire microcosm of that game was absolutely insane.

Like, just how it unfolded.

A.J. Brown gets hurt.

Pats go sideways.

Can you back the Rams tonight? I'm back in the Rams tonight.

When you look at their defense, their defensive line, and how dominant they were both in the post-season and the regular season, what's your outlook on, A, what they lost, and B, what they're bringing back?

I think what they're bringing back is substantial considering a lot of it, like, you know, everybody kinda walked into the off-season talking about how much cap money they had, but that was already kinda promised cap money, that they were gonna keep their guys, pay their guys, retain them for long term.

I think we all kinda knew Tariq Wol- Woolen after last year, you know, the up and down season, now he finished it strong, looked great in the playoffs and stuff, but wasn't long for Seattle long term.

Spoon gets paid and stuff.

So like, I think the, the backbone of their defense is still definitively there.

Like, I've got questions like Josh Jones full-time corner and stuff, uh, out, you know, Spoon playing outside, some differences in the secondary, what have you, that I think the defense, just the year-to-year volatility with the defense, like any defense, period, like Seattle being an elite, unquestioned, the number one defense in football, I think like it's between them and the Texans, and people can, you know, fight with their cat about that.

But with those two defenses you're talking about, okay, they're both top five.

Okay.

Let's go

... and specifically, 'cause if you were to take the 100-foot view of the Cleveland pass defense last year, you'd be like, "Oh, it, it's, it's not bad for Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers.

Like, let's fire them up, flex plays, wide receiver three, four, what have you." But if you look at specifically just the eight games where Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together, full-time players, then you realize there's no way in hell that I'm playing Jakobi Meyers or Brian Thomas Jr.

Because in those eight games, shout out to the, again, shout out to DS2, in, in those eight games they only gave up 1.43 fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers, 7.24 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers.

If you put that number across the entirety of the overall season, that would be, those would be the third lowest marks in the NFL.

And then it's like, okay, well, Brian Thomas Jr., his field stretching role that he finished last year with, okay, look at the same sample size of eight games.

Again, this is not like some three-game sample I'm pulling out and saying, "Oh, let's project that over the whole freaking season." It's eight games.

Do you remember what his gauntlet looks like?

If they weren't starting

a backup quarterback in the freaking playoffs, they were in the Super Bowl.

And they probably would have beat the Patriots.

Like, I mean, excuse me, the Seahawks.

Like, what are we talking about here, man? Like, this is craziness to me.

It's totally crazy.

It's wild.

Derek, break it down.

Yeah

... you know, too much of the picture for me, 'cause I'm very well aware of, like, the reasons of why that looked the way it did in week two.

But I just, the thing that, that's holding me back a little bit about Fernando is I feel like he's still adjusting.

A- and very much so.

Again, I wanna be very, like, diligent about how I'm laying this out.

He's played two NFL preseason games, but I feel like the version of Fernando that we're seeing right now is somebody that's still working it out of, what can I get away with, and I'm processing in real time the massive jump in spacing and speed of the NFL level.

Because the thing about it, like, what I've seen through two weeks of preseason, Brett, and I, and I'm curious, like, if this is your takeaway or where you sit on this, was for a guy that I felt like as he moved through the, the, the collegiate season last year, we saw him be more- ... out, out of structure play making, aggressive.

Yeah

Like that they're gonna run the three backs, and they're kinda throwing that in our face, and do we need to consider any type of drop? Did that play a role in your pick of, uh, Ken Walker over Hampton at all?

It did.

And I mean, the top of the, the queue for me was Ken Walker, uh, Amarion Hampton, and Derrick Henry, and they go in succession here for me.

And I think where you're just splitting the difference between somebody like Walker and Hampton, if both of those guys are gonna be 60 to 65, 70% snap share players, then I, I don't have to worry about who's getting the red zone work for, for KC.

So I, I'm not worried about that as I would be opposed to some of the Chargers news coming out.

And I don't think it's, like, obviously, like, a coffin nail for Hampton.

I think he should still go in this range.

[laughs]

Thank you, D-Bro

...

I'm gonna follow that up with a legendary prospect, with a guy that...

I mean, in a super flex format where quarterbacks are so important, the, I mean, the obvious low-hanging fruit here is Fernando Mendoza, quarterback for the Raiders.

I, I, I loved him as a prospect.

I know a lot of people were like, "Is this guy somebody that can create off script? Is he just a game manager, tall pocket passer, more of a point guard type?" But I think everybody saw, as he got more comfortable last year in his final season in college, down the stretch we saw more of that off-script ability from Mendoza.

So is he going to be a 600, 700 rushing yard quarterback? No.

Yeah

I know some Vikings fans do not like the New Orleans Saints, but if you're an NFL fan, I really like what lines are saying early about the Saints team in a very weak division.

Yeah, I'm all in on the Saints this year.

I mean, we kind of talked about this off air a ton.

I think they're going to win the division.

I think we're going to see this offense cook.

Tyler Shuck is going to do the thing.

He's going to do the damn thing.

So I do think that that opens up and projects well for him.

He's that dude.

So leading me, or leading us, shall I say, 'cause we're walking hand-in-hand through this, into Round 4, and a guy that honestly I'm putting him in the Round 4 conversation 'cause this is where we sit at ADP.

I think when we're into the full throes of, of draft season and the heat of it and stuff right before Week 1, I think this guy is not gonna be available in the fourth round.

I think he's gonna be a third-round pick.

But right now, while you can get the value, please do on Colston Loveland, who is going to be, I think, a league-defining pick.

I think you're getting a player and not having to pay the price tag of last year's Trey McBride or this year's Brock Bowers as a player that can compete with Brock Bowers for the tight end one overall mantle, and nobody's talking about him that way.

And but, I mean, proof is in the pudding, boys.

Yet, still we sit.

skit.

Yes, it felt very much like a Larry David skit.

It was very, very wild.

But also to throw context on this, of the last two years without A.J. Brown in the lineup, Devonta Smith, 32.9% target share, 2.65 yards per route run.

He is that dude.

He's that dude.

So leading me or leading us, shall I say, because we're walking hand in hand through this into round four and a guy that honestly, I'm putting him in the round four conversation because this is where we sit at ADP.

And to be able to get a guy with that much upside this late, it just lets you stack like these other positions and get so much depth, maybe even go elite tight end, grab a Brock Bowers, grab yourself a Colson Loveland, and then you can get a league winning guy at quarterback as the literal last quarterback one off the board.

Oh, yeah

... overall right now, 55th.

Um, yeah, I, we know what we're getting out of McLaurin.

Again, going to the safety.

Since 2024, in the four-- Well, 2024 to 2020, in the seasons where he played, you know, he was healthy and stuff like that, he never saw less than 117 tar- 117 to 131 targets, never had less than 1,000 receiving yards.

So we know the floor with McLaurin.

Last year when he was on the field, now again, injuries and stuff and, you know, contract talks and things like that, we, we usually see these guys get dinged up with a late start.

There we go

My instinct would be that he's pretty close to that this year.

I agree.

I agree wholeheartedly with that.

I think, like, the best receiving back they have probably is, like, a tie between Emma Johnson and Breshad Smith.

They did not wanna play Breshad Smith at any point last year despite ...

I mean, Kareem Hunt's success rate is not feeding families out here, Davis.

So you know, I, I, I think, like, again, KC has to change the model, and I think they're looking at this too where they've gotten no explosives from their passing attack over multiple years.

... just opens yourself up to huge variance.

And I wonder if it'll actually be more... kind of egalitarian you know like our lab has a 23 target chair qj is a 17 percent gadston has 15 percent kalar has 10 and joku has six percent like i i wonder if they're actually because outside of tyreek and waddle the dolphin stuff ever like everyone was between like a six percent and a twelve percent target chair on the whole team yeah

Yeah, I mean, where I'm with Ladd is kind of – I agree with a lot of your points there.

And then the other thing about it is if they're going to run so much 12 and 13 and have multiple tight end sets, like I look at all their tight ends.

I think we're going to see like a Rams or Seattle kind of committee approach.

Like everybody's getting a 30% to 35% route share.

So I'm really not in on any of their tight ends.

But with Ladd, as far as like in two wide receiver sets – I don't know if he's going to play in two wide receiver sets consistently, Davis.

opens yourself up to huge variance.

Who's next on your love list?

Oh, man.

Jalen Coker.

I, I just, I'm not buying the...

I'm not paying the iron price for Tedaro McMillan in drafts right now.

I'm just not, and this is not a Tet problem.

This is a Carolina passing volume problem, and this is a Bryce Young problem.

I still have him at Lamar.

Well, he's got two years, he scored 14 and 18 touchdowns

touchdownsIs it insane if we get a 20-year, a 20-touchdown season out of James Cook? It really shouldn't be because it could definitely happen.

And then you go to the last part or piece of a running back stepping into the top three.

He has to, has to have passing game involvement.

That's the final part of this picture that I think we get from James Cook in 2026.

With Pete Carmichael being added to this team as the offensive coordinator, and I know that, like, people could frame this as like, "Okay, this is a Sean Payton stat.

This isn't a Pete Carmichael stat." During Pete Carmichael's entire tenure with the Saints as OC, they were never lower than 10th in running back target share, and that's a big outlier compared to, you look at James Cook, who coming out of college was supposed to be a re- receiving back.

[laughs]

Who's your upside pick, Derek?

Derek?Dude, I'm gonna go with a guy...

But basically, if you look at the secret sauce of being an RB1 overall, we need volume, we need a damn good offense to score a lot of touchdowns, and need pass game involvement.

This player has two of those three elements, and I think the third element could be coming this year, and that's James Cook, man.

I mean, like, last year we saw him lead the entire freaking NFL in rushing yards.

He was third in rushing attempts.

And look, he had 14 touchdowns, but the previous year he had 18.

[laughs]

if you had one single fantasy team and I told you you gotta draft a Liam Cohen wide receiver, are you going with Parker Washington or are you ga- going with a bounce back year from BTJ?

BTJ?I'm going with Parker Washington, and th- there's no hesitation for me.

And, uh, the thing that I think ki- kinda gets lost, uh, there's a few different things that I think kinda get lost in this conversation with Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington.

One, Brian Thomas Jr., when he came back at the tail end of last season, and they're gonna run back this three wide receiver core that they had last year.

Brian Thomas Jr. was the lid lif- lid- lid lifter.

He was the, uh, the high ADOT, the field stretching guy.

Parker Washington was basically Jacksonville's Amon-Ra St.

What's the right answer with that group of five guys?

100%.

So the next guy that I got here and I know, again, going with I guess maybe I'm just a sadist.

Like I pick players that I love that have talent and people are like, oh, no, it burned too many seasons to believe in him.

Christian Watson, dude, like I just go.

I understand that people have been burned by the injuries.

I understand he's never had a thousand yard season and all of the kind of crap.

I get that.

So I don't expect the Dolphins to be a very good team, but I think Willis is good enough, particularly on the ground, to give you quarterback one numbers at an extremely discounted price that I'm taking the shot on in every single draft I can.

In the double-digit rounds, it's totally worth the moonshot for me.

Love this call.

Absolutely love this call.

I'm all in on Jonathan Brooks.

Like, I've got him ranked in redraft circles.

I've had him ranked for weeks.

I feel like, uh, rankings, ADP, ECR is kinda catching up.

Let's go

Um, Sean Tucker can play a goal line role, but does that not make Bucky Irving still a top 20 running back? Does that take him out of being a top 20 running back? What say you?

I, I, I think the, I really love Pat's point about the offensive line last year 'cause it was decimated.

They, they, they couldn't block anybody.

They couldn't keep Baker Mayfield upright.

I think this offense could definitely bounce back this year.

My, my biggest concern about Bucky Irving, like, I, I...

And to Pat's point, yes, Bucky has been the superior receiver to Gainwell over his career.

So why don't you drop it for us why Tony Pollard is a RB value that you're drafting this season?

What is your first hot take for this year's rookie class?

Well, you're going with a guy that you've stand and stood on process for the entire time.

I'm going to lead this off with Kevin Coleman Jr. will finish the season as Miami's most productive wide receiver.

And I know that that take in itself is a low bar to clear considering the wide receiver room.

So I'm going to add another layer to this.

He is going to become Jaden Reed South for the Miami Dolphins.

This dude is incredibly talented.

yeah i i think that was an interesting thing i don't even know at that point like i don't know if that's good or bad i would assume probably a little bit more bad but whatever they picked him he's there and maybe that means something i don't know

So Devonta Smith- Oh, gotcha, gotcha.

Gotcha.

Zay Flowers, I'm definitely into.

I'm drafting a good bit of him.

Just where he's going, I like the range where he's at.

Same thing with Garrett Wilson.

Emeka Ibuka, I'm really in on him.

Uh, the, so I'm, I'm asking Debra to rank some of the top running back twos, those being Rico Dowdle, common guy, Blake Corum, JK Dobbins, Jonathan Brooks, and Kenneth Gainwell.

Football's on all season long on ESPN and streaming on the ESPN app.

Colston Loveland will outscore Brock Bowers as the tight end one in fantasy this season, and people could say I'm insane, they can say I'm crazy.

I think Colston Loveland is the best tight end value on the entire freaking board right now because he has tight end one upside.

And if you look at what Colston Loveland-- Let's be kind of rewind.

Last year, week 16 through 20, when Loveland was a full-time player in the Bears offense, I understand they didn't have Rome Odunze, and this year they will have Rome.

I have questions about his foot and his health.

Can he hold up for the whole entire season? D.J.

You're talking about another wide receiver on a brand-new team this year, and sort of following a trend where traded wide receivers, there's at least one of them who have a smash season every year.

Yeah

... as a guy in this conversation, but then we...

He got snaps, starter snaps for a long time, and didn't do anything with them.

He didn't command targets.

He wasn't efficient with his work.

And so I'm not worried about, like, Kevin Coleman Jr. having a h- like, a high bar to clear to beat him out for a starting, uh, lineup spot.

And Kevin Coleman Jr. was a player of, like-Because he is a slot wide receiver, these guys don't go high in the NFL draft usually.

So w- what do you... what are the traits that you're really looking for?