So I don't know, what are your thoughts on the AI trade from that big picture perspective?

Well, we call ourselves fundamental technical analysts.

So in other words, if a biotech with no sales breaks out, we're not going to buy it because we never want to wake up the next morning and the placebo does better than the drug in phase two trial and the stock's down 50%, which we've seen a lot of throughout the years.

for me, and look, call me a skeptic.

I think AI is going to be gargantuan, very big news-driven moves today.

They're getting killed while, by the way, the software security, which was getting hurt, is gapping up.

I have one big problem and a very good memory, and that is the circular financing of, hey, I'm going to give you $5 billion, buy my stuff.

We can just speak of based on how we look at things, what we believe is best for the capital markets and for our clients.

February 2024 through January 2025.

Number one is study risk management.

Most people do not.

I always tell people to recognize that things can go awry and make sure you have some sort of stop in place just in case.

I've met a lot of people that have things that dropped to zero because it was a famous name and they hung on.

But the second part of the equation is study the masters.

Simple as that.

to make that leap, though, you can see it, right? Or just when people like a product and a service and they tell their friends about it, but they never ever consider that they should be part owner of

Yeah.

...

I was invited, my radio show, to the White House, uh, when, uh, Bush won the election.

They were trying to do something with Social Security, get this, just to have 2 to 5% of the money go towards the S&P 500.

A week later, after I interviewed, uh, Don Evans, the Commerce Secretary, Jon Snow, the Treasury Secretary, I get a call from the White House and they said, "We're dropping it." Why? Because the other side was putting out advertisements about throwing grandma off the cliff, and they said it was bad politically.

And of course, nothing was ever done, and Social Security, look what's happening here.

Mm-hmm.

And the numbers are astounding.

(laughs)

...

they, they're jumping all over each other to get out.

Uh, uh, uh, again, um, I have studied every bull and bear market throughout the years, especially '99 and all that, and there's just some weird things going on where you have companies, uh, lending money and taking equity stakes in other companies who were buying that first company's product.

And, uh, a lot of that happened in 1999.

So again, uh, jury's still out.

Uh, when I see what I'm seeing today, I'm wondering if the market's starting to catch a little bit wind.

Can you give me a ta- I know you're not a huge crypto fan, but can you just kind of talk about the state of cryptocurrency, maybe Bitcoin, and what you see going forward, especially, um, navigating this rocky situation we're in with the economy right now?

Gary Kautbaum is the president of Kautbaum Capital Management and a Fox Business contributor.

And that is the 10-year yield is now below 4%.

Uh, oil prices have been coming down.

There is nothing better fundamentally than, uh, the cost of capital and the cost of energy heading lower.

But there's another part of the equation here, uh, that is really not talked about.

Uh, Jay Powell announced last week that they are gonna, uh, stop or at least, uh, l- lessen the quantitative tightening, uh, and I can e- easily explain that.

What he was doing in the past, uh, his fake printed money, when the bonds were maturing, they were just going bye-bye, letting them run off.

Uh, you know, is the key test for the markets that, looking at those tariffs, or is the key test for markets right now for the first quarter the earnings report more than tariffs?

Um, with the inflation data today, I would say softening labor market, inflation not rearing its ugly head, you've got a strong case to keep cutting.

Uh, very simple.

If I was running the Fed, I'd be lower from here.

I don't know about much lower.

I know the new Fed guy came in and said 2%.

Uh, I- I have an issues going from four down to two.

Uh, but, uh, he- he has room to cut, and I'm pretty sure he's going to.

Mm.

Mm-hmm.

... and then he slow moves, uh, rates back up to play catch-up, uh, creating what I call the three-seven where everybody's got 3% mortgages now.

Why sell a home, uh, to get a 7%? Uh, that's all created by his distortions.

So in that vein, correct.

Uh, I'm not so much in the camp of he's in... he's done so wrong recently.

Uh, to be a quarter, a half point away from the free market, I don't think, uh, i- i- is the biggest of deals.

Uh, yes, he needs to play catch-up a little bit.

(laughs)

LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.

Well, I think one of the things that haven't been talked about in the last year, actually, is the fact that interest rates, and I'm not talking about Jay Powell, I'm talking about the one year already up all the way up to the 30, and oil prices have stayed about as stable as can be.

And I think that's been a good force for the market.

Just remember, in 22, what did we have? We had interest rates starting to skyrocket, and you know what the market did then.

And by the way, I got to touch upon what you just said.

The number one rule should be do not fight the tape.

You can assume that you know what an uptrend and a downtrend looks like.

You saw that as a positive.

That's Gary Kay, President of Kaltbaum Capital Management and a Fox News contributor.

And fortunately, the president pivoted from Liberation Day.

I do not think the market would be in good stead right now if they continued with the 145% tariff on China as well as all the tariffs on all those countries from that day.

So, uh, I think the great part about leaders and leadership is knowing when you have to pivot, and, and they did that.

And the market's been acting pretty darn well.

Uh, there are certain areas of the market that I follow, uh, that are most meaningful, and that is, uh, the semiconductors and the big banks.

And all I can tell you is right now, Bank of New York went into new yearly highs, uh, yesterday.

What does the market, in your opinion, what are people thinking is going to happen and, and how would tariff price increases affect stocks?

Are, are we living on borrowed time when it comes to how much we're spending?

Well, I don't think we've seen the freak out yet.

Uh, I've been saying in all my reports for a few years now, uh, I rue the day when the bond market wakes up and says, "How much debt do we have?" And, um, just call me very disappointed, uh, because it is not often in the political world you have an opportunity to change the complexion of something that's going awry.

Uh, and, uh, the Republicans I think had a great chance here and they're fumbling it.

And of course they're using these code words, uh, that are trying to make things look better, but the bottom line is the numbers.

Uh, the debt is gonna be $50 trillion in the next, uh, five to 10 years, uh, no matter what.

And for them to come out and say, "Oh, we're cutting one point something trillion," oh, but that's after going up six or seven trillion.

I can't let you go without asking you, what should I buy here? Are you gonna buy Google here? It's down today.

I, I talked to the Agriculture Secretary today, Brooke Rollins, who kind of suggested, "Listen, we knew that there was gonna be, uh, some short term negativity on, on Wall Street, but long term, uh, we expect this t- to work out really well." Uh, should we look at the markets, the, the, the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, the S&P, a- as kind of a report card for the overall economy? Or is it just kind of one data point o- of many?

It's an absolute report card on everything going on at the moment.

Uh, when I see companies today, like Federal Express down $28, I think that's down about 14%, that is the market screaming at you, "Oh, we're worried about global trade and the delivery of products around the world." When you see oil prices down $5, that tells you the same.

When you see the 10-year yield dive down to n- o- o- almost 4%, that's the market speaking that it's worried about global growth going forward because of it.

I'm a big believer the market has ears, has a mouth, and has a voice, and it's speaking.

And by the way, on the other end of that spectrum, the strongest stocks in the market that are actually up today are what we call recession-resistant companies, companies that no matter what, if we go into a deep recession and the economy goes into the crapper, people are gonna still go to the supermarkets.

They're strong.

And so that's what the market's gonna be looking for now in the days and weeks ahead as these tariffs, uh, start to get implemented and play out?