And AJ, you would think that just because we are not factoring any home field and usually the better team is better for a reason and they are the favorite for a reason because they are the better team.

Yeah, and I think with the Saints, there's still a lot of questions injury-wise, obviously, in their backfield.

And Tyler Shug, I think, is probable at this point.

I'm trying to not be suckered into, because I've said for years, Aaron Rodgers will never be good again.

So as Fez and I have both said, let's be careful of small sample sizes.

I'm not going to take a two week sample size of Aaron Rodgers looking like a looking like a decent quarterback and suddenly feel like, you know, he's he's he's back and he's he's going to be good again.

So I'm cautiously.

Is it possible we might be right back there by the end of the year?

And AJ, you would think that just because we are not factoring any home field and usually the better team is better for a reason and they are the favorite for a reason because they are the better team.

Yeah, and I think with the Saints, there's still a lot of questions injury-wise, obviously, in their backfield.

And Tyler Shug, I think, is probable at this point.

I'm trying to not be suckered into, because I've said for years, Aaron Rodgers will never be good again.

So as Fez and I have both said, let's be careful of small sample sizes.

I'm not going to take a two-week sample size of Aaron Rodgers looking like a decent quarterback and suddenly feel like he's back and he's going to be good again.

So I'm cautiously – Starting to come around on Pittsburgh, but this doesn't feel like a fair number to me.

Is it possible we might be right back there by the end of the year?

You can make the argument he is playing worse than every quarterback in the league right now, [laughs] not named Justin Herbert.

Yeah, I, I don't real- I mean, really it's hard to imagine.

If you had told me you were gonna be getting this kind of play out of Sam Darnold, the Seahawks would be basically incapable of running the ball, which they are right now, uh, that they would still be looking as good as they are.

But I, I think it, it just kind of speaks to the defense that Mike McDonald's throwing out there and, and just finding a way to piece it together.

And if y- if you can turn every game into a rock fight, uh, it, it, it, you know, he's gonna be able to win more, those games more often than not.

And right now with the way Denver's running, a- and I can't imagine...

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I can't imagine Bo Nix is too many slots ahead of, uh, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold there.

Mm.

Yeah

... at the end of the day, will the, will the Bucs be able to put up enough to, uh, to hang with them? We...

Uh, and I think they played a similar opponent in Cincinnati early in the season.

Uh, but that was when they had a starting quarterback.

Now, uh, they don't.

What I do like, though, is that at least their backup quarterback, Jalen Daniels, can run.

And one thing we've seen, this Cowboys defense cannot handle a mobile quarterback.

Mm-hmm

Well, I think it's panic mode

if they lose.

And you're right.

I think it's five teams since 1990.

The Texans are the last two that have done it.

The Texans are the last two teams.

to start 0-3 and still make the playoffs.

They're just not going to win and they probably won't cover at the end, but they'll be covering throughout the entirety of the game.

AJ, you like Packers over the Jets, or were you impressed by what Geno Smith did in week number

one? I was impressed with the Jets, I guess.

It's all relative.

They played against a team that I'm really, really down on.

I'm really not sure why the Jets were underdogs, but I will say that I am more down on the Packers than I thought I would be, too.

I thought they really kind of gave a game away.

And if teams can give games away like that, that's not a team I'm looking to lay points with.

But, AJ, why do you like the Minnesota Vikings so much here this week?

Are the Bills five and a half points better, or essentially four points better than the Lions and when you take out home field here?

I, I think when you factor in the Lions' health situation, it, it's plausible to get to this number, this five and a half number.

The, the Lions look like they're beat up in the trenches pretty badly.

Uh, you have outdoor Jared Goff, which the stats against Jared Goff when he's outside are, are significantly worse than he's...

when he's inside.

On grass, Jared Goff historically has been pretty bad.

Uh, and then I think you also have the hype spot, the, uh, the, the hype spot of the opening the stadium.

Yeah.

Mm-hmm

... you know, Vince Young and, and Colt McCoy, like some of the best offenses Texas ever had.

And even when the game that they won, it wasn't a, a, it was like 25 to 22.

The game that they lost, it was 24 to seven.

Everything was, was muted just because of the atmosphere.

It was such a big game.

Like, like Fez said, nobody's wanting to make a big mistake.

[laughs]

Utah.

Yeah, this is my best bet, and I'm going to be on Idaho here.

Idaho, who did play a game last week, lost kind of a heartbreaker against Cal Poly.

But this was an Iowa team – or Idaho team, sorry, that was a playoff team last year.

They got four out of their five offensive line starters coming back last season.

They've got like a total of 80-something starts between them.

And this is one of the – while I say recruiting doesn't matter, for some of these big-time programs, for a place like Idaho, recruiting really matters.

aj

What do you expect to see from the Tampa Bay Bucs?

Uh, I don't like the number of them as the favorite.

I, I, I feel like the NFC South is probably the, the, the division with the most parity in the league.

I, I, I think any one of these four teams, if, if things break the right way, could b- could win the division, which sounds crazy, but y- you know, I, I, I, I don't know why you would say one team is, is not capable of doing it.

Uh, uh, they all seem to have about the same skill level and, you know, th- last year was the worst statistical season for Baker since he's been in, in Tampa.

I-- Uh, the question is, was, was all of it due to injuries? How much of it was, you know, maybe, you know, the, the league's just starting to figure Baker out a little bit again, and he's regressing back to what Baker has always been for most of his career.

... that was an issue for them, and it has been an issue for this Lincoln Riley-led USC team.

Yeah, no, I, I, I think this, this whole season is sort of a, uh... there's a, there's a target on Lincoln Riley's back, and Lincoln Riley is going to have to, uh...

How do you compete in the NFL in 2026 without a 1,000-yard receiver?

Well, a- and how do you compete when, you know, you look at teams like the Lions who, who have Amon-Ra, and you, you have the Bears who have this, this explosive new offense that ev- that, you know, everyone's very excited about what Caleb Williams is gonna do, and you have the Vikings, who are probably the best schemed team in that division.

Uh, a- and you are kind of an old school, grimy, run the football first team, uh, particularly...

And, and that's not, uh, there's, there are teams who can win as grimy, run the football first teams, but most of the, most of the time when those teams do win, they are elite on defense.

And y- as you mentioned, the, the Packers are, are not elite on defense, particularly if, if Micah Parsons does...

There's a world where Micah doesn't come back and, you know, i- is not what he was, uh, before this injury.

So no, I, I, I think there's, there's plenty of concern for this Packers team, uh, on both sides of the ball.

Hmm

Mm-hmm.

Like, it do- no matter what they do, it's gonna be very difficult to be worse.

The biggest problem is, though, you know, and the, and the problem, problem A with the, with the defense last year was when they got rid of Micah Parsons, there wasn't anything to fill that void.

And quite frankly, there still isn't anything to fill that void.

I- it's, uh, it, the, and it may even be, the pass rush may even be weaker than it was a year ago without Jadeveon Clowney, uh, who, who actually came in and did a really good job for Dallas last year.

Without Dante Fowler, uh, they're, they're hoping that Rashan Gary still has something in the tank.

I'm not so sure.

Yeah

[chuckles]

... that we go into the season and we're hyping them up.

"Oh, they, they've g- look at who they've got." And then it turns out your quarterback just can't play.

And a lot of the times that you find out in the SEC that a guy who looks like, he looks the part, he, everybody thinks this is the next big thing, you get into the SEC and you just can't hack it.

W-we're probably gonna see that again this year.

There's gonna be somebody who, who we thought is gonna be the, the top guy.

Uh, I, I've heard a lot of love for John Matusiak.

Mm-hmm

Mm-hmm

... and he's already kind of running out of steam.

Holloway not a big finisher.

That's not really what he does.

H- Holloway, I mean, you could, you could go through his record and you're gonna, you'll see, wow, win by decision, win by decision, win by decision.

That's, that's kind of what he does.

Uh, and he's v- historically very hard to finish.

What's your bet?

Yeah

...

Sean O'Malley's not looked like a world beater his last couple times out.

And, and at some point, I, I said this the first time, you know, he lost, when you take that guy's...

When you take it away from him, when you take the invincibility factor away from him, when you take the I'm the undefeated, I'm the best, and now suddenly your s- your flaws have been exposed, how do these guys who are really, uh, uh, confident almost, I mean, uh, uh, cocky in Sean O'Malley's case, how do they respond when they're no longer the, the, the king of things? A- and you- we've seen them have to tap out.

We've seen them get beat down, which we've now seen Sean O'Malley get beat down.

Uh, I, I don't know that he is warranted of being such a big favorite either.

Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm

... that w- the first quarter, Wemby plays until he's tired.

He basically plays until he taps his head and says, "Hey, take me out for a little bit." Uh, the...

All season long he's been on, I don't wanna say a minutes restriction, but they've, they've carefully monitored how many minutes he plays.

And the, the first quarter, it, this has just been the trend, is he plays usually about 10 minutes in the first quarter.

And for a guy who will play maybe, you know, o- in the playoffs I guess he's playing more like 35 minutes, but 33 minutes.

But for...

Yeah.

Mm-hmm

... that the first quarter Wemby plays until he's tired.

He basically plays until he taps his head and says, "Hey, take me out for a little bit." Uh, the...

All season long he's been on, I don't wanna say a minutes restriction, but they've, they've carefully monitored how many minutes he plays.

And the, the first quarter, i- this has just been the trend, is he plays usually about 10 minutes in the first quarter.

And for a guy who will play maybe, you know, o- in the playoffs I guess he's playing more like 35 minutes, but 33 minutes.

But for...

Yeah.

Uh, what do you think attributed to that, and do you think he gets more aggressive on the boards tonight?

I think he's tired.

Uh, I think game one, which was the most minutes he'd ever played in his career, uh, really did kind of sap him.

I, I mean, they've, they've been very careful with his minutes all season long, and for that double overtime game to happen in game one, and it was a game where they, they had a short bench and he had to play, you know, 45 minutes.

It just is something that he's not used to, and I, I really don't think he ever recovered.

And the way that this series is going, where it's every other night they're playing, he just hasn't really had a chance to rebound from that.

So I, I don't know if that changes.

Yeah.