Where do you kinda have Wentz and this whole deal going on with obviously the [laughs] J.J. McCarthy getting shunned and, and all of that here with the, uh, with the Vikings?

Vikings?So Wentz is difficult because he played so badly the last couple years, but he was injured and compromised.

So I have Wentz three points worse than an average starting quarterback.

I've got Murray the prototypical average, right around zero.

So it's, it's a three-point downgrade.

This one's easy to price, Matt, because, like you said, spread coming in, Vikings were laying two two two and a half.

That was the home field.

Well, there's some question-

Steve, what do you got for a play?

I'm gonna go under second half, under 17 and a half.

Money's been coming in on the under.

I was gonna play Jacksonville.

I leaned Jacksonville minus four and a half JBT, and then I th- I thought to myself, "I'm only playing it because I don't think Cleveland is gonna have any success on offense," and once Jacksonville gets up 31 nothing, this game's gonna be done-zo and we're just gonna see a whole bunch of running, so under.

Fezzik, anything here?

Absolutely.

So JBT, you know the, the Bengals are dominating on the scoreboard and they get the ball, but it's all been turnovers, Baker fumbling in the end zone, Bengals picking up turnovers.

[laughs]

And, and they have four different blackjack guys on a team, and they played 25,000 hands each, and one guy gets crushed, and one guy kicks butt.

Another guy wins very moderately.

Another guy wins what he should win.

All right? And they explain why, well, Player A was way too aggressive, and he had a drug problem, and Player B had just broken up with his girlfriend, and Player C's wimpy.

And they, they explain away why there was such variance.

And then they said, "Just kidding.

Are the Giants an attractive play tomorrow night?

Why a more realistic ROI, but survivor are in the, in the handicapping one, much more difficult and survivor.

it's much more difficult to win in Survivor because the logger from Eastern Maryland, Darvin Moon, has to have like a miracle to get to the main event final table in the World Series of Poker.

But if he plays Survivor and he just follows the Gil Alexander North Star of, I'm going to take me one of these top five favorites every week.

It's a pretty good strategy.

It might even be a plus EV strategy because there's all these Yahoo's out there that are like going to be releasing on, you know, the Jets Titans game.

You know, people love to play contrarian to, you know, just to put things in perspective.

And I know I'm, this is extreme.

Please, what do you

Yeah

... where we get the worst of the number and the, like, and, and, like, this has happened to me before.

Like, literally, I'm working with my friend Dan in Huntington Beach, all right? And, and he's, he's a s- college football specialist.

And a total comes up, and he's like, he's ready to pounce on it, and he's like, "We're, we're gonna play the South Florida under 51 and a half.

But whatever they open, if it g- if it's north of 50," this, this happened this week, "we're going under." Right? So they open 51, bang, we play under 51, okay? Circa goes to 49, foot soldiers fall in line, everybody comes 49.

It goes down to 48, and then what's this? Like, someone's doing a show like, "Oh, I got South Florida under 51." It's like, "No, you didn't." Because we were there, and it was our primary game, and we smacked it within eight seconds.

We got the 51, and it was the only one in the world.

Yeah.

We, no insurance, right? We go, Fez, no insurance.

You're directionally correct.

You don't insure unless the true count is plus three or higher.

And to like, warning, a little blackjack talk.

If you're playing single deck, imagine this.

The dealer has an ace up.

That's not a 10.

Is this a hold your nose and back Michigan because the line has gone too far play, or is this the line hasn't gone far enough based on what we saw?

Now,

this sounds ridiculous.

Why am I making a big bet if I only have it off by half a point? Because I really feel if they played this game 100 times, Ravens would roll 45 of the 100.

The Colts would win or lose by one or two, 45 out of 100.

And 10 out of 100 times, Baltimore will win by exactly three.

So if I bet The Colts plus 3.5, I'm going to go 55 and 45.

That's 55%.

Do you like the Giants now that they're getting a full field goal here, or what direction do you lean in this game?

Give us some other NFL tenants, if you would, Stevie, like the all season win total stuff that's gone to now, would you say?

Yeah, so it used to be you wanted, and kudos to the whale capper for being the first guy I saw identify this, that he would sell a game.

And so he wouldn't play the Steelers under eight and a half wins.

He'd play the Pittsburgh Steelers under seven and a half plus 215.

He'd take the crap number, but the good vig.

And he would get like an extra 110 cents off.

on that bet, 120 cents.

I mean, excuse me, Stevie, you got two now, you snake.

Do you agree with that movement that people just don't like Tua at all?

All right, so I'm a decibel point guy.

Yes, I know.

So let's pump the brakes on three to three and a half.

I think people anticipated, well, I don't know if that's the case because two of the camp reports were so bad, but this line on Pittsburgh had already jumped the shark.

It had already gone from Pittsburgh to, three during the summer to three, I would say it was 3.38 and now it's 3.42. What Steve's talking about.

Well, it's three and a half now, but there's still some minus threes minus one 25.

Any parting words from any of you guys?

You want to give your college football plays out now? Yeah,

let's do it.

So tonight we are going to go San Jose State, Eastern Michigan under 56.

I'm actually going to give you a handicap on this one.

Okay.

I really like the under.

Well, whenever there's a competitively priced teams, so the lines pick are close to it.

Is it positive? Is it plus EV to use one of my three entries on the Cardinals, assuming half the pool is on the Chargers?

Was that the conversation? I believe that's it.

Yeah.

So, and when is the market the most efficient? That's right.

When is the market the most efficient? A great time to bet is like 6 a.m.

Pacific, right? As news is breaking and then the injuries, et cetera.

But an excellent time is also at 10 a.m. right at post.

Now, Gil, how are you going to win when the closing number, the whole idea is you got to beat the closer.

You want to give your college football plays out now? Yeah,

Was that the conversation? I believe that's it.

Yeah.

So, and when is the market the most efficient? That's right.

When is the market the most efficient? A great time to bet is like 6 a.m.

Pacific, right? As news is breaking and then the injuries, et cetera.

But an excellent time is also at 10 a.m. right at post.

Now, Gil, how are you going to win when the closing number, the whole idea is you got to beat the closer.

You want to give your college football plays out now? Yeah,

What are your thoughts on this opening matchup between Buffalo and the Texans?

Boy, the wise guys are super high on the Texans.

Worries about the O-line.

But I don't know if Buffalo has the defense to exploit it.

I would be surprised, actually, if Buffalo is able to win this game.

So, pulling back the curtain, this is how pros play.

We love seeing a Houston Texans plus 1.5, like minus 125, because then it's in teaser 101 playoff.

Which one of these teams is getting more love from Vegas right now?

What are your thoughts on this opening matchup between Buffalo and the Texans?

Boy, the wise guys are super high on the Texans.

Worries about the O-line.

But I don't know if Buffalo has the defense to exploit it.

I would be surprised, actually, if Buffalo is able to win this game.

So, pulling back the curtain, this is how pros play.

We love seeing a Houston Texans plus 1.5, like minus 125, because then it's in teaser 101 playoff.

Which one of these teams is getting more love from Vegas right now?

Fezz, when you see a market like that, where across the board UNLV's minus four and a half, but at two local Vegas shops I'm seeing UNLV minus five, is that a regional tax?

You could argue it is, but the bottom line is the line on this game is 4.75. Why do I say that? Any betting exchange that has it lined at four and a half makes the Rebels a slight favorite.

Any place that's dealing five makes Memphis a slight favorite.

And when I say slight, let me read this to you.

Minus four and a half, UNLV minus 106.

Do you like the idea of playing into those prop markets or derivative markets in college football? I know you do it all the time in the NFL, but what do you think, uh, about college football? Is that a beatable market?

I, I love your question is it a beatable market, because James Grosjean wrote a book, Beyond Counting, and he explains how you can win not just playing craps or roulette, but playing the big six wheel if you can track the wheel.

Everything is beatable.

What are you doing with that?

So I am aggregating the great Kelly Bidlin, who's basically like there's...

In the book, Chad Millman wrote a book, The Odds.

And at one point, Alan Boston says, why isn't everyone driving to the MGM to make this bet? I need to ask you, why isn't everyone driving to Ohio or wherever to DraftKings to bet the Cleveland Browns? Not under five and a half.

Gilly under seven and a half minus two 80.

Wow.

Um, at most books, the Browns are under six and a half, uh, minus 200.

you still, even though that would not be the optimal strategical

Yes, they did

... and threw a 100-yard pick six in the second half.

So I think the Saints will win that game.

Uh, Arizona Cardinals, bad performance against Dallas.

Uh, Green Bay just looked really good, so I would look towards Arizona.

And then Saturday, two games, the Colts gave away a game against New England, dominated the stats, tied.

They tied, but they should've won, and then they got crushed 34 to six.

Yeah

You have a, you have a bone to pick.

Yeah, I they in the latest episode, they said this is the first year talking about last year.

Yeah, that participants are actively disclosing who they're going to play.

All right.

No, this has never happened before that.

Well, that's not accurate because when Greg Jones won Survivor, he and I discussed this and Greg was very active.

And this is three years ago about exactly what he was playing.

What did that signal

Mm-hmm.

You wanted to play a bad number and get, like, plus 220, and, and, and if you sold two, two games you got, like, like some ridiculous number.

I am buying games.

I'm playing Cleveland under seven and a half minus 280.

This is at DraftKings.

Think about this.

Most books have Cleveland under six and a half minus 200.

It is now down to six and a half or seven.

Because he has helped so many people over the years

... and the crux of the issue, Michael Fiddler posted something.

Fiddles, @FiddlersPicks is fantastic, and he got one point of...

He beat the closing number in the WNBA total by, by one point, and he was unhappy with me because he's like, "Steve, you know I always beat the total by more than one," or, or I, or most of the time, but I only beat it by one.

So he has this tiny, microscopic edge, and we're saying if, if a total lands right on the number, uh, 2.4% of the time it's a break-even bet at 52.4%.

It's clear-cut.

The math, it's like, it's like 15-minute grits.

You have some unders on quarterback rushing yards as well.

You have some unders on quarterback rushing yards as well.

Yes.

Uh, Lamar Jackson under 600 yards.

I, I, I get it.

If you look at his career, you'd be looking over, but you see this pattern again and again where, not for long in the NFL, if you keep running, you're just not gonna last.

So I expect that his role is going to be diminished on the ground.

Same with Hurts at Philadelphia.

Missouri State under four and a half?

You have some unders on quarterback rushing yards as well.

Yes.

Uh, Lamar Jackson under 600 yards.

I, I, I get it.

If you look at his career, you'd be looking over, but you see this pattern again and again where not for long in the NFL.

If you keep running, you're just not gonna last.

So I expect that his role is going to be diminished on the ground.

Missouri State under four and a half?

[laughs]

... they're, it's not gonna be priced correctly, all right? And then they have to go to Philadelphia.

So a nightmare back-to-back spot, weeks three and four for the Rams.

Now, the problem is the Rams are the best team by margin in the NFL, so there's, um, you know, issues there.

But that's not the time we wanna invest in the Los Angeles Rams.

There'll be better spots, you know, throughout the course of the year.

So but when I'm analyzing NFL, the problem is it's obvious, and everyone's doing what I'm doing.

I don't think that that line is Bears minus one and a half by the time we get to Christmas Day, week 16.

Now, we can talk about it, Fezz, in terms of NFL preseason versus regular season, and the liquidity in those markets, and what the steam moves mean, but in terms of also betting a look-ahead spot, what do you do when the line goes against you, when it, it's, it's steaming in the opposite direction?

Great question.

Uh, first, a housekeeping item.

Y- you always hear Vegas knows.

You hear, "You're not gonna outsmart these Vegas sports books and their algorithms, and they're so on top of it." To which I will r- two examples.

Duck just gave one of them.

Miami at Clemson, pick 'em.

Okay

real status right now, they could potentially not finish the season? Or how do you look at this Giants team from your perspective?

Oh, 100%.

So if you asked me over under Scatabo, how many games is he gonna play? I don't know, 13 and a half because of the injury risk.

And if that's the case, I, you know, I think his number was like 725, so it's low and it's easy to say, "Oh, if he plays all 17 games," I lean over.

Well, I agree, but I don't think he's gonna play all 17 games.

Um, you know, looking at week one, I will say Dallas is laying 2.75. What the heck does that mean? Uh, basically there's two and a halves and there's threes for Dallas.

And Dallas being a very public team and the Giants having some issues already, maybe we won't see much of Dart the rest of pre-season.

What else you got, Steve, before you sign off? I know you have an 11:00 AM Pacific Time hard out.