Sep 11, 2026 · 30 min · 17 segments
Prediction-markets litigation involving Kalshi, Robinhood and others has arrived at the Supreme Court’s doorstep. Elliott Stein’s analysis of that leads this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Votes…
Justin TeresiPanelist
Matt SchettenhelmPanelistFirst, in litigation over prediction markets, this litigation has finally arrived at the Supreme Court's doorstep, and that's because the state of New Jersey filed its cert petition on September 2nd, asking the high court to review a Third Circuit appeals court decision from April.
that held that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate sports event contracts like those offered by Calsi.
For listeners who may not be as familiar with the cases as others are, New Jersey and several dozen other states are seeking to ban sports event contracts under their state gambling laws.
And we now have at least a partial circuit split because the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals at the end of August held that sports event contracts don't meet the definition of swaps under the federal commodities laws, and therefore state gambling laws are not preempted.
And as of last night, it looks like Robinhood has filed its own circuit petition seeking review of that Ninth Circuit decision as well.
So we have a couple cert petitions now pending in the Supreme Court on this issue.
In terms of timing, Kalshi has until October 8th to respond to New Jersey's petition, and I expect the Supreme Court will decide roughly in the mid to late November potentially, as to whether or not it'll take these cases.
I'd be surprised if the Supreme Court doesn't take these cases, just given the different outcomes we've seen in the Third Circuit and the Ninth Circuit, that's known as a circuit split.
And then just overall, I think Kalshi and its prediction market peers have the better legal arguments.
And I expect them to prevail, though it's obviously a close issue since these cases at the trial court level have mostly been going in favor of the states.
If you want to learn more about these cases or reach out with questions, feel free.
And we have a deep dive on prediction markets, which is broader than just the litigation as well.
First, in litigation over prediction markets, this litigation has finally arrived at the Supreme Court's doorstep, and that's because the state of New Jersey filed its cert petition on September 2nd, asking the high court to review a Third Circuit appeals court decision from April.
that held that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate sports event contracts like those offered by Calsi.
For listeners who may not be as familiar with the cases as others are, New Jersey and several dozen other states are seeking to ban sports event contracts under their state gambling laws.
And we now have at least a partial circuit split because the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals at the end of August held that sports event contracts don't meet the definition of swaps under the federal commodities laws, and therefore state gambling laws are not preempted.
And as of last night, it looks like Robinhood has filed its own circuit petition seeking review of that Ninth Circuit decision as well.
So we have a couple cert petitions now pending in the Supreme Court on this issue.
In terms of timing, Kalshi has until October 8th to respond to New Jersey's petition, and I expect the Supreme Court will decide roughly in the mid to late November potentially, as to whether or not it'll take these cases.
I'd be surprised if the Supreme Court doesn't take these cases, just given the different outcomes we've seen in the Third Circuit and the Ninth Circuit, that's known as a circuit split.
And then just overall, I think Kalshi and its prediction market peers have the better legal arguments.
And I expect them to prevail, though it's obviously a close issue since these cases at the trial court level have mostly been going in favor of the states.
If you want to learn more about these cases or reach out with questions, feel free.
And we have a deep dive on prediction markets, which is broader than just the litigation as well.
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