Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min · 6 segments
This week we take a look at whether the Fed will remain patient as energy costs sustain inflation risks. If earnings can support further equity gains beyond the AI trade, and whether European earnings…
Central banks will take center stage this week as policymakers weigh resilient economic activity against persistent inflation and elevated energy costs.
With the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady, attention will focus on clues about the timing and pace of further tightening.
The busiest week of the U.S. earnings season will test the foundations of the equity rally.
Investors received limited fresh direction on the US economic and inflation outlook last week.
There was no major inflation or employment release, and Fed officials were in their pre-meeting communications blackout.
Markets instead weighed company results against renewed energy price concerns.
Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, up 6% over the week after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about further disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
Attention will now turn to the Fed's decision and press conference on Wednesday.
With markets and our forecasts pointing to unchanged rates, investors are likely to focus on the Fed's assessment of inflation, economic activity and the conditions that could prompt another increase.
The meeting does not include updated projections or a new dot plot, making the tone of the statement and press conference especially important.
September PCE inflation the following day will show whether underlying price pressures are continuing to moderate.
Our base case remains for the Fed to leave rates unchanged in October before resuming measured tightening in December.
Recent inflation data support additional increases, but do not, in our view, require an immediate move.
We remain positive on equities and fixed income, believing resilient activity and strong profits can help markets absorb measured tightening.
Elevated yields offer attractive income and diversification in quality bonds.
Broad commodity exposure can also help protect portfolios against further supply-driven inflation.
Central banks will take center stage this week as policymakers weigh resilient economic activity against persistent inflation and elevated energy costs.
With the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady, attention will focus on clues about the timing and pace of further tightening.
The busiest week of the U.S. earnings season will test the foundations of the equity rally.
Investors received limited fresh direction on the US economic and inflation outlook last week.
There was no major inflation or employment release, and Fed officials were in their pre-meeting communications blackout.
Markets instead weighed company results against renewed energy price concerns.
Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, up 6% over the week after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about further disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
Attention will now turn to the Fed's decision and press conference on Wednesday.
With markets and our forecasts pointing to unchanged rates, investors are likely to focus on the Fed's assessment of inflation, economic activity and the conditions that could prompt another increase.
The meeting does not include updated projections or a new dot plot, making the tone of the statement and press conference especially important.
September PCE inflation the following day will show whether underlying price pressures are continuing to moderate.
Our base case remains for the Fed to leave rates unchanged in October before resuming measured tightening in December.
Recent inflation data support additional increases, but do not, in our view, require an immediate move.
We remain positive on equities and fixed income, believing resilient activity and strong profits can help markets absorb measured tightening.
Elevated yields offer attractive income and diversification in quality bonds.
Broad commodity exposure can also help protect portfolios against further supply-driven inflation.
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