A General Election soon seems inevitable

That's the startling conclusion reached by the respected political commentator, Lord Adonis, immediately after Andy Burnham's speech to Labour Party annual conference.

His analysis appeared in Prospect, which I've always found one of the UK's more balanced political journals.

He begins by acknowledging that the company insists, that the government insists, that there will not be an early election.

As Pauling suggests, this would be what he describes as a perilous undertaking.

Nevertheless, he considers an early election to be the inescapable logic of the Prime Minister's speech yesterday.

Almost everything he had to say about his plans for the future depends upon a new manifesto and a new mandate.

The inescapable logic of Andy Burnham's Labour conference speech was that we need an election as soon as possible, he continues, because almost everything he had to say about his plans for the future depends upon that new manifesto and a new mandate.

He goes on.

This is the first time I can recall a prime minister who has already holds power, making his political centerpiece a reform which he declines to enact for another four years.

Unless, of course, he calls the election sooner.

He cites electoral reform, which Burnham hailed as vital to the health of British democracy.

That too is going to require an intervening election.

Then there's Europe, which he says, in effect, that he wants to break free of Keir Starmer's red lines, severely limiting any change to the existing Brejic regime.

Here again, this can only happen after another election.

And so we have it.

His conclusion is that virtually all the recent indicators are that his long-term plans require a new manifesto and a new mandate.

A bold prediction.

If Adonis is right, we'll be facing the most unpredictable general election of recent times.