The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Aug 28, 2026 · 11 min · 8 segments
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss FX Corporate Sales to discuss the key takeaways from the Jackson…
Derek HalpennyHost
Simon MayesGuest
Um, always, you know, always a lot of focus on, on Jackson Hole, but most of the time it doesn't really have too much impact.
Um, w-well, I th- I think the first point I'd make is going into the speech, the pricing for a hike in September was just nine basis points, eight to nine basis points.
So my feeling going into the speech was that that was a little bit on the low side.
Just because, you know, the inflation data alone, um, i-is still pretty elevated.
Uh, his wording on inflation is, again, uh, you know, given where inflation is at the moment, is not hugely surprising.
But, you know, we have work to do if inflation not moving to two percent with speed.
And I think it's the with speed that, uh, may kind of spook the markets in terms of r-reconsidering September, because, uh, you certainly can't say it's, it's moving with speed towards target.
Also said hard-pressed to say financial conditions are restrictive, and inflation data doesn't suggest trend meaningfully improved.
So, you know, you're talking about, in their view, an economy that's at full employment.
You're talking about an economy where inflation is above target and not coming down.
In any normal-ish world, the market would very quickly be priced for a hike, uh, on the 16th of September.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a continued gradual grind, uh, in that direction, given we're still only around fifty-fifty.
Now, I think the reason why we're only, you know, we're, we're only at fifty-fifty is obviously you've got a payroll support.
Um, always, you know, always a lot of focus on, on Jackson Hole, but most of the time it doesn't really have too much impact.
Um, w-well, I th- I think the first point I'd make is going into the speech, the pricing for a hike in September was just nine basis points, eight to nine basis points.
So my feeling going into the speech was that that was a little bit on the low side.
Just because, you know, the inflation data alone, um, i-is still pretty elevated.
Uh, his wording on inflation is, again, uh, you know, given where inflation is at the moment, is not hugely surprising.
But, you know, we have work to do if inflation not moving to two percent with speed.
And I think it's the with speed that, uh, may kind of spook the markets in terms of r-reconsidering September, because, uh, you certainly can't say it's, it's moving with speed towards target.
Also said hard-pressed to say financial conditions are restrictive, and inflation data doesn't suggest trend meaningfully improved.
So, you know, you're talking about, in their view, an economy that's at full employment.
You're talking about an economy where inflation is above target and not coming down.
In any normal-ish world, the market would very quickly be priced for a hike, uh, on the 16th of September.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a continued gradual grind, uh, in that direction, given we're still only around fifty-fifty.
Now, I think the reason why we're only, you know, we're, we're only at fifty-fifty is obviously you've got a payroll support.
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