The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Jun 12, 2026 · 9 min · 7 segments
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how building investor optimism over a US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed Chair are…
Lee HardmanHost
Abdul-Ahad LockhartGuest
It's also an important BOJ policy meeting as well worth kind of highlighting in the week ahead.

I think going into that meeting, we have heard in a number of media reports in Japan that the BOJ is planning to raise rates again by 25 basis points in the week ahead.

So we do think it's kind of largely priced in now that we'll see a rate hike from the BOJ in the week ahead.

At the same time, we've also heard from the BOJ that they're also considering potentially pausing their quantitative tightening program from fiscal year 2027.

For us in terms of the FX market performance, I think if the BOJ does hike rates this week, We don't think that on its own would be sufficient to trigger a reversal of yen weakness that we've seen recently.

Like I say, the Japanese rate market is already pretty much fully pricing in a hike from the BOJ and Even looking at the updated forward guidance to us, it seems most likely that they'll kind of stick to the path of gradual rate hikes going forward every six months.

So I don't think that change in policy next week from the BOJ will be sufficient to strengthen the yen on its own.

If the yen is to strengthen, I think it would need to be supported by Other favorable developments in the fundamental factors, the one potential positive for the yen would be reports that we've seen at the end of this week suggesting that the US and Iran are close to finalizing a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

That deal potentially could be announced as early as this weekend, certainly if we were to start next week with a deal in place and evidence of a pickup in terms of oil and energy flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

And if that did materialize, I think that then would definitely help create a more favorable backdrop for the yen to rebound from these weak levels.

It's also an important BOJ policy meeting as well worth kind of highlighting in the week ahead.

I think going into that meeting, we have heard in a number of media reports in Japan that the BOJ is planning to raise rates again by 25 basis points in the week ahead.

So we do think it's kind of largely priced in now that we'll see a rate hike from the BOJ in the week ahead.

At the same time, we've also heard from the BOJ that they're also considering potentially pausing their quantitative tightening program from fiscal year 2027.

For us in terms of the FX market performance, I think if the BOJ does hike rates this week, We don't think that on its own would be sufficient to trigger a reversal of yen weakness that we've seen recently.

Like I say, the Japanese rate market is already pretty much fully pricing in a hike from the BOJ and Even looking at the updated forward guidance to us, it seems most likely that they'll kind of stick to the path of gradual rate hikes going forward every six months.

So I don't think that change in policy next week from the BOJ will be sufficient to strengthen the yen on its own.

If the yen is to strengthen, I think it would need to be supported by Other favorable developments in the fundamental factors, the one potential positive for the yen would be reports that we've seen at the end of this week suggesting that the US and Iran are close to finalizing a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

That deal potentially could be announced as early as this weekend, certainly if we were to start next week with a deal in place and evidence of a pickup in terms of oil and energy flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

And if that did materialize, I think that then would definitely help create a more favorable backdrop for the yen to rebound from these weak levels.
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