How Trump's approval rating could affect Arizona's midterm elections

Well, thank you for having me.

Spencer, our listeners just heard a clip of President Trump asking his base to pretend he's on the ballot.

Is that a smart strategy based on your data?

N- no.

Uh, the president's approval rating is, is low, and he seems to energize the Democrats as much as the Republicans, and potentially more the Democrats.

And we saw this in the, uh, Texas convention that they held.

We did a poll in Texas right afterwards, and the Democrats were equally as enthusiastic to go vote after seeing the president as were the Republicans.

So I think there was a, a little bit of a boomerang there.

Uh, generally these primary-- uh, these, these elections are local and they deal with the local issues in the Senate race or in congressional races.

When President Trump comes in, he brings a lot of energy in there, and maybe the base can put them over the top, but it seems like a very interesting strategy.

I know it didn't work in 2018, so maybe he's thinking he needed to change up the strategy from that time into this period.

Uh, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Yeah, the president has always been a fairly polarizing figure in politics, to put it mildly.

Uh, he was president in 2018.

We also saw him as a non-president, uh, pre-candidate in 2022 here.

So give us a sense as to his unpopularity today versus any of the other two midterms in his political career.

This is probably the lowest popularity President Trump has had since he's come down the golden escalator a decade ago.

Uh, his approval rating back in 2016 to 2020 actually went up each year.

He was from 40% approval up to 44% when he leaves office.

This time we're seeing his approval, they started at 49, now he's down to 39, and we've never seen his disapproval so high.

It's knocking at almost 60 at 58%.

So there was a bigger group of undecided voters that were kind of waiting.

So in 2018, I think the political environment was maybe stronger for President Trump and had a larger base of support.

I think this time it's a smaller base that he's tacking into.

We'll see if it's enough to get them out, but the Democrats are very energized for this election.

Well, thank you for having me.

Spencer, our listeners just heard a clip of President Trump asking his base to pretend he's on the ballot.

Is that a smart strategy based on your data?

N- no.

Uh, the president's approval rating is, is low, and he seems to energize the Democrats as much as the Republicans, and potentially more the Democrats.

And we saw this in the, uh, Texas convention that they held.

We did a poll in Texas right afterwards, and the Democrats were equally as enthusiastic to go vote after seeing the president as were the Republicans.

So I think there was a, a little bit of a boomerang there.

Uh, generally these primary-- uh, these, these elections are local and they deal with the local issues in the Senate race or in congressional races.

When President Trump comes in, he brings a lot of energy in there, and maybe the base can put them over the top, but it seems like a very interesting strategy.

I know it didn't work in 2018, so maybe he's thinking he needed to change up the strategy from that time into this period.

Uh, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Yeah, the president has always been a fairly polarizing figure in politics, to put it mildly.

Uh, he was president in 2018.

We also saw him as a non-president, uh, pre-candidate in 2022 here.

So give us a sense as to his unpopularity today versus any of the other two midterms in his political career.

This is probably the lowest popularity President Trump has had since he's come down the golden escalator a decade ago.

Uh, his approval rating back in 2016 to 2020 actually went up each year.

He was from 40% approval up to 44% when he leaves office.

This time we're seeing his approval, they started at 49, now he's down to 39, and we've never seen his disapproval so high.

It's knocking at almost 60 at 58%.

So there was a bigger group of undecided voters that were kind of waiting.

So in 2018, I think the political environment was maybe stronger for President Trump and had a larger base of support.

I think this time it's a smaller base that he's tacking into.

We'll see if it's enough to get them out, but the Democrats are very energized for this election.