The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng
Sep 4, 2026 · 7 min · 3 segments
The Power Rank's interception model has been profitable in betting props over the past three seasons. However, the model does not seem to explain Jalen Hurts even over a multi-year sample. This…
Ed FengHost
Jalen Hurts has been very good at taking care of the football by not throwing interceptions.
Usually this is where I start explaining that interception rate is not a good predictor of future interceptions.
I usually explain how it's better to look at the rate at which a quarterback throws the football into dangerous situations.
These plays obviously include interceptions, but they also include passes defended or plays in which a defense gets a hand on the football.
I quantify how often a quarterback throws a football into a dangerous situation by bad ball rate.
Bad ball rate is a much better predictor of future interceptions than interceptions alone.
Jalen Hurts got lucky having an interception rate that is almost less than half the NFL average.
However, Philadelphia Eagles fans might point out that Jalen Hurts has been really solid with interceptions over the long term.
So I'm asking the question, has Jalen Hurts broken my interception model? The study looks at all quarterbacks, and I have to be open to the possibility that a single quarterback could be an outlier.
Is Jalen Hurts that outlier based on his numbers over the last four seasons? I'm going to argue no for two reasons.
First, let's think about exactly what happens when a quarterback throws the football into a dangerous situation.
Let's suppose a player in the secondary gets a hand on the football and it pops up into the air.
It is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict what happens to a football when it gets deflected.
Jalen Hurts has been very good at taking care of the football by not throwing interceptions.
Usually this is where I start explaining that interception rate is not a good predictor of future interceptions.
I usually explain how it's better to look at the rate at which a quarterback throws the football into dangerous situations.
These plays obviously include interceptions, but they also include passes defended or plays in which a defense gets a hand on the football.
I quantify how often a quarterback throws a football into a dangerous situation by bad ball rate.
Bad ball rate is a much better predictor of future interceptions than interceptions alone.
Jalen Hurts got lucky having an interception rate that is almost less than half the NFL average.
However, Philadelphia Eagles fans might point out that Jalen Hurts has been really solid with interceptions over the long term.
So I'm asking the question, has Jalen Hurts broken my interception model? The study looks at all quarterbacks, and I have to be open to the possibility that a single quarterback could be an outlier.
Is Jalen Hurts that outlier based on his numbers over the last four seasons? I'm going to argue no for two reasons.
First, let's think about exactly what happens when a quarterback throws the football into a dangerous situation.
Let's suppose a player in the secondary gets a hand on the football and it pops up into the air.
It is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict what happens to a football when it gets deflected.
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