The Cattle Market Guys Podcast
Sep 29, 2026 · 9 min · 10 segments
``` Feeder steer prices are surging on heavy volume, with 500-549 lb steers at $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago. Meanwhile, negotiated cash trade has shrunk to just 17.8% of cattle purchases…
First up is futures volatility and how cash trade is structured.
But go back a day to Thursday and futures closed lower as beef company processing fell sharply.
So you got the same two forces pulling in opposite directions.
Tight supplies push prices up and slowdowns at the packing plants push them down because the packers aren't pulling cattle through.
The Cattle Range Daily Index shows the same tug of war.
The cattle market index was up 1.86% on the September 25th report, but still down 2.13% over 10 days.
Then the September 28th report had it down 94 hundredths of a percent from Friday and down 1.53% over 10 days.
So it's a market with a strong undertone and a lot of day-to-day noise.
Producers shouldn't overreact to any single session.
The bigger story underneath is a cattle range piece called the shrinking cash cattle market.
It says the national negotiated cash share of cattle purchases fell from 52.1% in 2005 to just 17.8% in 2025.
Think about what that means.
When less than a fifth of cattle trade on a negotiated cash bid, that thin slice sets the reference price for everything else.
That affects price discovery and bargaining power.
There's also a political side.
Cattle Range reported on the backlash against the ranchers selected to attend the president's executive order signing in the Oval Office, and it shows how divided the industry is on who speaks for producers and what the right policy answer is.
Jim, this cash share issue isn't new, is it?
Aw, no sir, it isn't.
Back in 99, I was selling a few penloads through a feed yard partner up in the panhandle.
Prices were sorry, and everybody at the sale barn coffee counter was grumbling about the same thing.
Fewer and fewer cattle were trading on an honest cash bid.
One week, my feeder told me only a handful of bids set the whole market for the region, and the rest just followed along on a formula.
I remember thinking that when so few folks make the price, the little guy is just along for the ride.
That year I learned to watch how the price got made, not just what the price was.
First up is futures volatility and how cash trade is structured.
But go back a day to Thursday and futures closed lower as beef company processing fell sharply.
So you got the same two forces pulling in opposite directions.
Tight supplies push prices up and slowdowns at the packing plants push them down because the packers aren't pulling cattle through.
The Cattle Range Daily Index shows the same tug of war.
The cattle market index was up 1.86% on the September 25th report, but still down 2.13% over 10 days.
Then the September 28th report had it down 94 hundredths of a percent from Friday and down 1.53% over 10 days.
So it's a market with a strong undertone and a lot of day-to-day noise.
Producers shouldn't overreact to any single session.
The bigger story underneath is a cattle range piece called the shrinking cash cattle market.
It says the national negotiated cash share of cattle purchases fell from 52.1% in 2005 to just 17.8% in 2025.
Think about what that means.
When less than a fifth of cattle trade on a negotiated cash bid, that thin slice sets the reference price for everything else.
That affects price discovery and bargaining power.
There's also a political side.
Cattle Range reported on the backlash against the ranchers selected to attend the president's executive order signing in the Oval Office, and it shows how divided the industry is on who speaks for producers and what the right policy answer is.
Jim, this cash share issue isn't new, is it?
Aw, no sir, it isn't.
Back in 99, I was selling a few penloads through a feed yard partner up in the panhandle.
Prices were sorry, and everybody at the sale barn coffee counter was grumbling about the same thing.
Fewer and fewer cattle were trading on an honest cash bid.
One week, my feeder told me only a handful of bids set the whole market for the region, and the rest just followed along on a formula.
I remember thinking that when so few folks make the price, the little guy is just along for the ride.
That year I learned to watch how the price got made, not just what the price was.
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