Aug 7, 2026 · 9 min · 8 segments
For years, SBA 7(a) loans over $3 million were considered some of the safest loans in the portfolio. But new SBA default data tells a different story. In this episode, Beau Eckstein analyzes the…
Now they are among the riskiest, and I do not think interest rates explain all of it.
There is a warning buried in the SBA default data that every ETA buyer should pay attention to.
As of March 31st, 2026, the trailing 12-month default rate across the SBA 7A portfolio reached 4.8%.
It is still nowhere near the the 11.6% reached during the Great Recession, but is approaching the 5.1% level reached during the dot-com downturn.
So no, I do not think this is a reason to panic, but I also do not believe we have seen the full amount of the stress yet.
And when you look specifically at recent SBA loan vintages, the picture becomes a little bit concerning.
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Now they are among the riskiest, and I do not think interest rates explain all of it.
There is a warning buried in the SBA default data that every ETA buyer should pay attention to.
As of March 31st, 2026, the trailing 12-month default rate across the SBA 7A portfolio reached 4.8%.
It is still nowhere near the the 11.6% reached during the Great Recession, but is approaching the 5.1% level reached during the dot-com downturn.
So no, I do not think this is a reason to panic, but I also do not believe we have seen the full amount of the stress yet.
And when you look specifically at recent SBA loan vintages, the picture becomes a little bit concerning.
