Why Is Bitcoin Going Up Right Now - the Three Real Reasons Nobody Is Explaining Properly (Bit Coin, Wealth & Investing)

[whooshing] The first thing is a bit of technical analysis, and Bitcoin has just done something it's only done a handful of times in its whole history.

I wanna slow down and explain what this actually means, 'cause it's not complicated once you see it laid out.

There's a thing called a 50-week moving average, and here's what that actually is.

Take Bitcoin's closing price every single week for the last 50 weeks, roughly the last year, add them all up, and divide by 50, and that gives you one smooth line on a chart.

Not a jumpy day-to-day price chart you see on your Bitcoin app or whatever you're using to track the price.

It's a slow moving average that irons out all the daily noise and just shows you the underlying trend.

So that's a 50-week moving average.

Now, during a proper bear market, a bear means the price is going down.

I like to think of a bear, you know, on all fours with its head down, and that reminds me that it's going down.

That average line tends to sit just above the actual price.

The price is below the average, struggling to get back up to it, bouncing off it from underneath like it's a ceiling.

That's been exactly what's been happening for the last 45 weeks, 45 or 50 weeks.

Bitcoin's been stuck below that line the whole time since we saw the big price decline roughly this time last year.

This week, for the first time in 45 weeks, the price actually closed a full week above that average line.

It didn't just poke above it for a day and fall back, which it has done a few times in the past.

A full weekly close above li- that line.

Now, what matters historically here, this exact thing has happened seven times in Bitcoin's entire history.

Seven times the price has broken back above that 50-week average when we've been in a bear market after a proper extended period below it.

And five of those seven times, it wasn't a blip.

It was the actual start of a brand-new bull market.

2015, that started one.

2019, that started one, and it happened again during 2022 and the 2023 recovery.

And now potentially this is the sixth.

So the honest version of this though, because I don't wanna oversell this, two of those seven times it was actually a false signal.

So there were other two times, once in 2011 and once in 2020, but there's a reason both of those failed, which actually makes the pattern more trustworthy, not less.