Jobs on the line
Oct 2, 2026 · 7 min · 6 segments
Markets look to US job data for the next clue on a possible October Fed rate hike. Nike plans more job cuts as its turnaround stalls. And US President Donald Trump pressures Europe to release diesel…
Oct 2, 2026 · 7 min · 6 segments
Markets look to US job data for the next clue on a possible October Fed rate hike. Nike plans more job cuts as its turnaround stalls. And US President Donald Trump pressures Europe to release diesel…
U.S. Treasuries did get a bit of relief overnight after hitting a 24-year high on Thursday.
Well, we've had such a mixed picture leading up to this report about where the sort of labour market is.
I mean, look at the private payrolls reports, 90,000, that was the highest in three months.
Well, as we look at the jobs report earlier in the week, it saw the lowest US jobs added since about five months.
I mean, showed a bit of cautions from employers coming to the end of that summer season.
And in terms of non-farm payrolls, it's swinging so widely, it's getting harder and harder to predict.
Of course, that was a five-month high, and we are expecting that to be revised down later today.
But it goes to show that even though these numbers show the U.S. jobs market is relatively stable, still in a low-hire, low-fire environment, it is becoming more and more difficult to predict.
Now, the odds of a rate hike coming up at the very next meeting in October have gone way down.
The market now only sees about a 28% chance, whereas a week ago they saw that as perhaps two thirds.
That's because several Fed policymakers, including John Williams, have come out in the last day or so to say that they don't see a hike being urgent.
But of course, a strong jobs report would really put pressure on them to move again, wouldn't it?
Well, if we get a 90,000 reading as we're expected, that puts it about an average is what we've seen for the entire year.
So generally, that just means that the Fed has, as you said, the room to tighten further as it keeps its focus on inflation, which has been about target for five years now.
But I mean, is it enough to really set a hike coming in October? Not really, if you think about it.
U.S. Treasuries did get a bit of relief overnight after hitting a 24-year high on Thursday.
Well, we've had such a mixed picture leading up to this report about where the sort of labour market is.
I mean, look at the private payrolls reports, 90,000, that was the highest in three months.
Well, as we look at the jobs report earlier in the week, it saw the lowest US jobs added since about five months.
I mean, showed a bit of cautions from employers coming to the end of that summer season.
And in terms of non-farm payrolls, it's swinging so widely, it's getting harder and harder to predict.
Of course, that was a five-month high, and we are expecting that to be revised down later today.
But it goes to show that even though these numbers show the U.S. jobs market is relatively stable, still in a low-hire, low-fire environment, it is becoming more and more difficult to predict.
Now, the odds of a rate hike coming up at the very next meeting in October have gone way down.
The market now only sees about a 28% chance, whereas a week ago they saw that as perhaps two thirds.
That's because several Fed policymakers, including John Williams, have come out in the last day or so to say that they don't see a hike being urgent.
But of course, a strong jobs report would really put pressure on them to move again, wouldn't it?
Well, if we get a 90,000 reading as we're expected, that puts it about an average is what we've seen for the entire year.
So generally, that just means that the Fed has, as you said, the room to tighten further as it keeps its focus on inflation, which has been about target for five years now.
But I mean, is it enough to really set a hike coming in October? Not really, if you think about it.
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