THE PROTEIN PULSE WASDE Special Report | October 9th, 2026

# THE PROTEIN PULSE ## WASDE Special Report | October 9th, 2026 ## Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script **HOST:** Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is a special report for October 9th, 2026. More feed. Less red meat. A different margin equation for 2027. From The Sparks Group. **SHAWN:** USDA just added 282 million bushels to projected corn ending stocks while cutting beef and pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. That's the disconnect worth paying attention to. Corn yield jumped to 181.2 bushels per acre, surprising the trade and pressuring futures. Soybean production increased, but meal remains forecast at $340 per ton. Feed economics are shifting, but not evenly. Meanwhile, cattle supplies remain constrained, pork production expectations are slipping, and chicken continues adding pounds. The benefit of cheaper corn won't move through the protein complex at the same speed. Poultry can respond relatively quickly. Cattle production cannot. For procurement, the question isn't simply whether feed gets cheaper. It's who captures the margin improvement and whether those savings ever reach finished protein prices. Remember, the market just repriced corn. It hasn't repriced the biology of cattle production. **HOST:** October Wasdy delivered a larger corn supply outlook, expanded ending stocks, and lower red meat production forecasts. Corn stocks-to-use increased to 11.3 percent, while soybean meal remained at $340 per short ton. USDA reduced projected 2027 beef and pork production by a combined 405 million pounds from September while increasing broiler production 150 million. The signal: feed availability is improving, but the supply and margin outlook differs significantly across the protein complex. **SHAWN:** Corn yield is 181.2 bushels an acre, up 2.7. Production is 16.034 billion bushels, up 234 million. Ending stocks are 1.849 billion, up 282 million. Stocks-to-use is 11.3 percent, up 1.6 points. The farm price is $4.70 a bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean production is 4.562 billion bushels, up 27 million. Ending stocks are 315 million, up 5 million. Meal is unchanged at $340 a short ton. On the protein side for 2027, beef drops 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Pork drops 245 million to 27.825 billion. Broilers rise 150 million to 50.150 billion. **HOST:** USDA raised corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, increasing yield from 178.5 to 181.2 without changing harvested acreage. The forecast exceeded pre-report trade expectations and triggered substantial selling pressure in corn futures. Beginning inventories increased 173 million bushels following September's Grain Stocks report. Projected ending stocks climbed 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. Stocks-to-use rose from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent. That's a meaningful improvement in supply coverage, not necessarily an excessive inventory position. USDA also raised total corn use 125 million bushels, including higher feed, ethanol, and export expectations. Reuters highlighted questions surrounding historical feed-and-residual estimates relative to livestock inventories. Feed and residual includes statistical adjustments. It isn't a direct measure of livestock consumption. The larger corn cushion creates opportunities to reassess forward coverage, but buyers should evaluate local basis, freight, and delivered costs before assuming futures weakness will translate directly into cheaper feed. **SHAWN:** USDA increased soybean production 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion, with yields rising to 53.1 bushels an acre. Ending stocks increased only 5 million bushels to 315 million as exports were revised higher. Projected crush remained unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels. More important for livestock producers, soybean meal remained forecast at $340 per short ton. Soybean oil held at 70 cents a pound, with biofuel use unchanged at 17.8 billion pounds. A larger soybean crop does not automatically translate into lower meal costs. Crush economics, oil demand, exports, and local availability remain important pricing variables. **HOST:** USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial beef production 75 million pounds to 24.802 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Lower expected steer and heifer slaughter, lighter carcass weights, and reduced feedlot placements continue limiting production expectations. For 2027, USDA specifically anticipates slower first-quarter marketings following lower-than-expected placements during the second half of 2026. Improved feed economics can support cattle feeders, but tight finished-cattle availability may continue pressuring packer procurement costs and plant utilization. USDA increased projected 2026 beef imports by 85 million pounds to 6.347 billion, supported by stronger Australian shipments. The 2027 import forecast increased 125 million pounds to 6.175 billion. Additional imported lean beef can support grinding operations but cannot replace domestic fed cattle or eliminate middle-meat supply constraints. USDA maintained its 2027 steer price projection at $238 per hundredweight. Preserve imported lean alternatives while protecting domestic beef coverage. Better feed economics and improved fed-cattle availability are two different propositions. **SHAWN:** USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial pork production 150 million pounds to 27.621 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 245 million pounds to 27.825 billion. The reductions reflect slower slaughter expectations, lighter weights, and smaller pig-crop and farrowing projections. Export expectations also weakened. USDA reduced projected 2027 pork exports 95 million pounds to 7.095 billion. Despite lower production, USDA reduced its 2027 hog price forecast from $64 to $63 per hundredweight, citing persistent pork cutout weakness. That's the disconnect. Reduced supply doesn't guarantee stronger prices when product demand and export movement fail to support wholesale values. Lower corn costs could improve finishing economics without necessarily restoring producer margins. Monitor cutout performance, individual primal values, and export demand before extending commitments based solely on tighter production projections. **HOST:** USDA increased projected 2026 broiler production 100 million pounds to 49.720 billion. The 2027 forecast increased 150 million pounds to 50.150 billion. Chicken remains the only major protein among beef, pork, and broilers receiving upward production revisions for both years. Stronger slaughter and hatchery expectations support the expansion, while improved corn availability offers potential feed-cost relief. But greater production also increases the volume that must move through domestic and export channels. USDA lowered its 2027 wholesale broiler price forecast from 122 to 121 cents a pound. Chicken continues presenting substitution opportunities for price-sensitive retail and foodservice programs. However, greater supplies and potentially lower feed costs do not guarantee uniform price declines across individual cuts. **SHAWN:** Global corn ending stocks increased 8.34 million metric tons to 280.44 million, largely reflecting higher U.S. supplies. European Union corn production declined to 48 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks increased modestly to 124.28 million metric tons. China's projected soybean imports remained unchanged at 115 million metric tons. Increased Australian beef shipments support higher U.S. import forecasts, while weaker Western Hemisphere demand contributes to lower U.S. pork export expectations. Larger domestic grain supplies don't eliminate international sourcing risks, freight costs, or competition for protein. **HOST:** What I'm watching. Corn: forward coverage opportunities against larger ending stocks and basis risk. Soybean meal: meal values independent of the corn-market reaction. Beef: feedlot placements, Australian lean imports, and packer utilization. Pork: cutout performance, export movement, and primal-specific pricing. Chicken: expanding production relative to seasonal demand and forward offers. Margins: where feed-cost savings accumulate before reaching wholesale protein prices. **SHAWN:** October Wasdy improved the corn supply outlook without improving the underlying domestic red meat production outlook. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Pork faces reduced production expectations alongside weak product values. Chicken continues expanding and may capture feed-cost benefits more quickly than the other major proteins. Those differences matter more to procurement than the grain headline alone. Lower feed costs can improve production economics without automatically lowering finished protein prices. The feed cushion is growing. The red meat cushion isn't. And that's the margin equation heading into 2027. Stay disciplined. **HOST:** That's The Protein Pulse, a Wasdy special report for October 9th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. **SHAWN:** Stay disciplined.