World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

However, the agency is standing by the accuracy of its October report.

The debate has raged since the October WASDE

and crop production report about discrepancies in corn yield, especially with NASS raising Nebraska's yield by 11 bushels per acre.

USDA has admitted an accounting error in September in Kansas and Nebraska, but not to the sampling of the objective yield plots.

That's not what I'm referring to here.

I am using this in the context of our October WASDE, which was a bit of a surprise to agricultural commodities markets.

If we look back over the course of summer and particularly the transition of later August into the beginning of September, we saw some really, thankfully, strong crop prices on futures markets and in some cases, some really great cash prices as well because local basis had narrowed.

Demand had been a very major driver of those increasing U.S. crop prices.

Things like the ongoing agreements with China for more purchasing of soybeans or at least getting us back to trend line purchases.

of soybeans.

In the September WASDE, we also had some help on the supply side for corn.

Both of those things added up to lower expected ending stocks and that increased prices.

I think we can.

Hopefully, there's probably going to be a little bit of hesitancy till we get to that November WASDE report.

Let's face it, that October report caught a lot of people the wrong way.

I think people are going to be very skeptical what the government's going to say.

Well, the reality is this.

The bean crop is a very good bean crop.

It would not surprise me if it gets bigger in the November WASDE.

A lot of people are very pleased with their beans.

Beans came in on the production at 4.562. September number was at 4.535.

And Peterson offered thoughts on marketing plans moving forward after the larger WASDE numbers.

But everybody's going to be really assessing and saying, okay, with this increase, in the yield.

Do we need to make additional sales in here? And our opinion, our quick opinion right now is no.

We can see some higher prices as a result.

You know, I wouldn't panic selling here.

Once again, Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners with reaction to that October WASDE report that came out earlier this month.

Well, Susan Littlefield spent time at World Dairy Expo earlier this month as well in Madison, Wisconsin.

So the October number that we've been trading now for a couple weeks is still the October number.

But it does, of course, bring into question, you know, might there be a mistake going forward that they have to somehow recalculate? They're kind of trying to say no, that there won't be any future mistakes, but it always just you know makes you wonder and we'll be very very very eager to see what the November WASDE report has to say for yield of course you know most of the clients that we're talking to I have not had anyone say they've had a record yield at all this year I don't have anyone who said it's a record crop for them individually most farmers throughout the midwest and they've been saying it's just been like a five-year APH average had a couple in Iowa though today say it was at the the high end of their APH average.

But I don't know.

I just kind of feel like this current yield number that they're giving us for corn is not accurate.

So you're going to want to keep an eye on that as far as how that might be helpful to you.

And then also seasonally, a lot of times corn and beans will find their winter high either between the middle of January and the middle of February.

There's usually that window between the two WASDE reports where we get our winter high and then of course it oftentimes correlates with weather in South America, so just put it on your calendar now last two weeks of December watch basis and then the middle of January till the middle of February.

keep an eye on grain futures prices, because a lot of times again that's your seasonal winter high and if you're going to be selling grain this winter, you want to be able to take advantage of those better opportunities if they occur.

WTI and Brent crude oil above 100.

And corn has been reacting opposite to that since the October WASDE, really, when it sent it downward.

So we're really seeing crude and corn decoupled, whereas typically they correlate and move in the same directions.

More fundamental trading now, less inflation trading in these grain markets.

This is creating an important distinction between global wheat availability and exportable supplies.

USDA's October WASDE projects Russian wheat ending stocks at 19.1 mmt compared with 12 mmt last year, despite a reduction

in

production.

And like I said, and the USDA says we have all kinds of corn lying around, apparently, based upon increased yields and increased corally grains.

So everyone is really gun-shy about what they're going to say here in the next WASDE report here in November.

And there's a lot of skepticism hitting the market and hitting the headlines around these miscalculations that the USDA has admitted to, particularly in Nebraska and Kansas.

Do you think that that's had any play in the markets here today?