Aug 23, 2026 · 29 min · 16 segments
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Jiang XueqinHost
Let me start with the facts because you need the ground beneath your feet before I take you into the analysis.
Fact one: according to S&P Global data, total corporate debt maturities in the United States jumped from roughly two trillion dollars in twenty twenty-four to roughly three trillion dollars in twenty twenty-six.
That is a fifty percent increase in the amount of debt that must be refinanced in a single year at interest rates that are multiples of what the debt was issued at.
Fact two: the leveraged finance data firm Nine Fin counts two hundred and thirty-seven publicly traded US and Canadian high-yield companies carrying seventy-nine point two billion dollars of debt maturing in twenty twenty-six and one hundred and forty point three billion maturing in twenty twenty-seven.
Fact three: in the second quarter of twenty twenty-six, the New York Federal Reserve's household debt and credit report showed credit card balances at one point two six trillion dollars, up twenty-one billion in a single quarter, and auto loan balances at one point seven one trillion dollars, up twenty-eight billion.
Fact four: Fitch data shows subprime auto delinquencies of sixty days or more hit six point nine percent in January of twenty twenty-six, the highest reading since nineteen ninety-four, a thirty-two-year record.
Fact five: the share of credit card balances more than ninety days delinquent rose from seven point six percent in mid-2022 to twelve point eight percent by early 2026.
Fact six: Moody's puts the national office vacancy rate near a forty-year high at around twenty percent.
Now, I need to give you a name for the mechanism because a thing you can name is a thing you can track.
Let me start with the facts because you need the ground beneath your feet before I take you into the analysis.
Fact one: according to S&P Global data, total corporate debt maturities in the United States jumped from roughly two trillion dollars in twenty twenty-four to roughly three trillion dollars in twenty twenty-six.
That is a fifty percent increase in the amount of debt that must be refinanced in a single year at interest rates that are multiples of what the debt was issued at.
Fact two: the leveraged finance data firm Nine Fin counts two hundred and thirty-seven publicly traded US and Canadian high-yield companies carrying seventy-nine point two billion dollars of debt maturing in twenty twenty-six and one hundred and forty point three billion maturing in twenty twenty-seven.
Fact three: in the second quarter of twenty twenty-six, the New York Federal Reserve's household debt and credit report showed credit card balances at one point two six trillion dollars, up twenty-one billion in a single quarter, and auto loan balances at one point seven one trillion dollars, up twenty-eight billion.
Fact four: Fitch data shows subprime auto delinquencies of sixty days or more hit six point nine percent in January of twenty twenty-six, the highest reading since nineteen ninety-four, a thirty-two-year record.
Fact five: the share of credit card balances more than ninety days delinquent rose from seven point six percent in mid-2022 to twelve point eight percent by early 2026.
Fact six: Moody's puts the national office vacancy rate near a forty-year high at around twenty percent.
Now, I need to give you a name for the mechanism because a thing you can name is a thing you can track.
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