El Niño Is Back: Which Crops are in Trouble?

El Niño starts with warming in the eastern Pacific.

That pushes the ocean's rain engine east, away from the Indonesian archipelago.

Here in California, we get more rain.

Indonesia gets less.

The dry season that just ended in Indonesia was brutal.

But the rain is expected to return soon, with the monsoon season starting in western Indonesia and spreading east.

Remember, it's an archipelago 3000 miles wide.

So ask your supplier where your spices grow, not just what you're buying.

The rain doesn't arrive everywhere at once.

The West gets relief first.

The eastern islands wait.

And what is still important is whether the rain lands on schedule in the right amount and at the right point in each crop cycle.

Because with tree spices, these problems won't be apparent until much later.

A clove tree stress this year gives you a bad harvest in late 2027.

The flowering fails first, quietly.

The shortfall shows up about 18 months later.

El Niño starts with warming in the eastern Pacific.

That pushes the ocean's rain engine east, away from the Indonesian archipelago.

Here in California, we get more rain.

Indonesia gets less.

The dry season that just ended in Indonesia was brutal.

But the rain is expected to return soon, with the monsoon season starting in western Indonesia and spreading east.

Remember, it's an archipelago 3000 miles wide.

So ask your supplier where your spices grow, not just what you're buying.

The rain doesn't arrive everywhere at once.

The West gets relief first.

The eastern islands wait.

And what is still important is whether the rain lands on schedule in the right amount and at the right point in each crop cycle.

Because with tree spices, these problems won't be apparent until much later.

A clove tree stress this year gives you a bad harvest in late 2027.

The flowering fails first, quietly.

The shortfall shows up about 18 months later.