Oct 19, 2026 · 12 min · 8 segments
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So I talked to a lot of folks who are either retired or about to retire in the next five years.
And the consensus is they realize that everything is overbought.
They realize it can go on for longer.
Governments can find a way to print their way out of this maybe and cause hyperinflation.
et cetera, et cetera.
But if you take a look at the first image, which is a table of the treasury yields by duration, I remember when I came to this country in the early 80s, a passbook savings account used to yield 8%.
I was like a small kid.
My parents opened an account.
And I remember it was like around 8% in the early 80s.
It's not as high as that.
But looking at this table, I'm not going to give the government my money for 30 years, maybe 10, and I would yield 5.1.
But the five years, okay, 4.9.
But there's not much discount to just lend them the money for two years and you get 4.7%.
And you're guaranteed basically your principal after two years.
Now, the average in America, there's pockets where you might get more on a cap rate return, but... 4-5% on the treasury yield is going to be probably net-net better than buying a rental property with a mortgage unless you're paying cash.
Definitely if you're buying a house with a mortgage for a rental property because you're going to pay higher mortgage rates for rental properties.
But my point is that treasury yields are not only becoming an alternative for real estate investment, it's now becoming an alternative for stock markets.
Because what I'm hearing from my network who are about to retire is they're starting to think about Switching from the NVIDIAs of the world slowly, not like tomorrow 100%, but slowly shifting some percentage to a two-year or a five-year treasury yield where you're guaranteed your principal and you make some income for two to five years.
And if the thinking is that most crashes, whether you look at 87, the dot-com, the financial crisis of 2007, 2008, the COVID crash, the duration of those crashes were not that long in hindsight, right? Like maybe a few months for COVID, maybe a year plus for some of the others.
so the thinking that I'm hearing, this is not advice.
This is my observation from my conversation.
They move some of these heavy, heavily bullish positions to a two or five year treasury, collect the 5% interest.
And when potentially things crash, they just swoop in.
They avoid the crash and dollar cost average.
So I talked to a lot of folks who are either retired or about to retire in the next five years.
And the consensus is they realize that everything is overbought.
They realize it can go on for longer.
Governments can find a way to print their way out of this maybe and cause hyperinflation.
et cetera, et cetera.
But if you take a look at the first image, which is a table of the treasury yields by duration, I remember when I came to this country in the early 80s, a passbook savings account used to yield 8%.
I was like a small kid.
My parents opened an account.
And I remember it was like around 8% in the early 80s.
It's not as high as that.
But looking at this table, I'm not going to give the government my money for 30 years, maybe 10, and I would yield 5.1.
But the five years, okay, 4.9.
But there's not much discount to just lend them the money for two years and you get 4.7%.
And you're guaranteed basically your principal after two years.
Now, the average in America, there's pockets where you might get more on a cap rate return, but... 4-5% on the treasury yield is going to be probably net-net better than buying a rental property with a mortgage unless you're paying cash.
Definitely if you're buying a house with a mortgage for a rental property because you're going to pay higher mortgage rates for rental properties.
But my point is that treasury yields are not only becoming an alternative for real estate investment, it's now becoming an alternative for stock markets.
Because what I'm hearing from my network who are about to retire is they're starting to think about Switching from the NVIDIAs of the world slowly, not like tomorrow 100%, but slowly shifting some percentage to a two-year or a five-year treasury yield where you're guaranteed your principal and you make some income for two to five years.
And if the thinking is that most crashes, whether you look at 87, the dot-com, the financial crisis of 2007, 2008, the COVID crash, the duration of those crashes were not that long in hindsight, right? Like maybe a few months for COVID, maybe a year plus for some of the others.
so the thinking that I'm hearing, this is not advice.
This is my observation from my conversation.
They move some of these heavy, heavily bullish positions to a two or five year treasury, collect the 5% interest.
And when potentially things crash, they just swoop in.
They avoid the crash and dollar cost average.
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