Oct 19, 2026 · 26 min · 9 segments
In this edition: Diverging Sentiment Among U.S. Corn and Soybean Producers Highlights Concerns Over Input Costs and Economic Outlook; Balancing Risk and Incentives in Nitrogen Management: Insights…
The September 2026 Ag Economy Barometer, or AEB, survey conducted by Purdue University gathered insights from around 400 US agricultural producers, particularly those growing corn and soybeans.
This monthly index, which measures farm financial sentiment relative to a base period in 2015-2016, recorded an overall positive reading of 123 for September.
It breaks down into a current conditions subindex of 105 and a future expectations subindex of 131, suggesting a relatively optimistic view among producers on average.
However, beneath the averages, sentiment among these producers showed significant divisions.
About 12% of all corn and soybean farmers responding reported an AEB index of zero, which signals serious concerns, including worsening financial performance, unfavorable economic expectations for the next year and five years, and a sentiment that it's a bad time to make farm investments.
This polarization is further seen in the formation of two distinct groups based on sentiment levels.
One group exhibited below average sentiment, with an index averaging 48, reflecting deep pessimism.
Conversely, the other group showed above average sentiment, averaging 191, indicating a strongly more optimistic outlook about their farm's prospects.
These groups diverged not only in their index scores, but also across measures such as expected financial performance and attitudes toward capital investments in machinery or buildings.
The Farm Capital Investment Index was starkly different, at just 13 for the less optimistic group versus 66 for the more optimistic group, highlighting reluctance among pessimistic growers to commit to major expenditures.
Financial performance expectations followed a similar pattern.
The pessimistic group averaged 57, signaling expectations of declining returns, while the optimistic group averaged 122, indicating hope for improvement.
Despite the differences in outlook, high input costs stood out as the biggest concern across both groups, primarily fuel and fertilizer expenses.
Interestingly, those with more positive sentiment were also more likely to highlight low output prices in addition to input costs as limiting factors.
In contrast, the less optimistic group frequently mentioned other serious challenges, such as labor and equipment shortages, weather risks, mounting debt pressures, and policy uncertainty.
These differences reflect how varied pressures influence producer perspectives and financial expectations depending on their specific circumstances.
Views on broader issues like soybean export prospects and U.S. competitiveness also varied.
The optimistic group was generally more hopeful about export markets and less worried about U.S. agriculture's competitive positioning, though still more than a quarter remained concerned about competitiveness.
Moreover, only 24% of the below-average sentiment group believed the US was headed in the right direction, compared to nearly 70% of the above-average sentiment group.
Such contrasts in outlook underscore the complexity of economic pressures facing U.S. corn and soybean farmers and the importance of looking beyond average indices to understand producer sentiment fully.
The recent analysis of the September 2026 Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Survey highlights a crucial point beyond the headline average sentiment indices.
The variation or dispersion of producer sentiment holds significant implications.
Data shows a distinct negative correlation between the dispersion of sentiment among corn and soybean producers and the overall average AEB index itself.
In months where producer sentiment averages are high, indicating general optimism, the range of sentiment tends to be narrower.
Conversely, when average sentiment drops, we see a wider spread in views among producers.
The September 2026 Ag Economy Barometer, or AEB, survey conducted by Purdue University gathered insights from around 400 US agricultural producers, particularly those growing corn and soybeans.
This monthly index, which measures farm financial sentiment relative to a base period in 2015-2016, recorded an overall positive reading of 123 for September.
It breaks down into a current conditions subindex of 105 and a future expectations subindex of 131, suggesting a relatively optimistic view among producers on average.
However, beneath the averages, sentiment among these producers showed significant divisions.
About 12% of all corn and soybean farmers responding reported an AEB index of zero, which signals serious concerns, including worsening financial performance, unfavorable economic expectations for the next year and five years, and a sentiment that it's a bad time to make farm investments.
This polarization is further seen in the formation of two distinct groups based on sentiment levels.
One group exhibited below average sentiment, with an index averaging 48, reflecting deep pessimism.
Conversely, the other group showed above average sentiment, averaging 191, indicating a strongly more optimistic outlook about their farm's prospects.
These groups diverged not only in their index scores, but also across measures such as expected financial performance and attitudes toward capital investments in machinery or buildings.
The Farm Capital Investment Index was starkly different, at just 13 for the less optimistic group versus 66 for the more optimistic group, highlighting reluctance among pessimistic growers to commit to major expenditures.
Financial performance expectations followed a similar pattern.
The pessimistic group averaged 57, signaling expectations of declining returns, while the optimistic group averaged 122, indicating hope for improvement.
Despite the differences in outlook, high input costs stood out as the biggest concern across both groups, primarily fuel and fertilizer expenses.
Interestingly, those with more positive sentiment were also more likely to highlight low output prices in addition to input costs as limiting factors.
In contrast, the less optimistic group frequently mentioned other serious challenges, such as labor and equipment shortages, weather risks, mounting debt pressures, and policy uncertainty.
These differences reflect how varied pressures influence producer perspectives and financial expectations depending on their specific circumstances.
Views on broader issues like soybean export prospects and U.S. competitiveness also varied.
The optimistic group was generally more hopeful about export markets and less worried about U.S. agriculture's competitive positioning, though still more than a quarter remained concerned about competitiveness.
Moreover, only 24% of the below-average sentiment group believed the US was headed in the right direction, compared to nearly 70% of the above-average sentiment group.
Such contrasts in outlook underscore the complexity of economic pressures facing U.S. corn and soybean farmers and the importance of looking beyond average indices to understand producer sentiment fully.
The recent analysis of the September 2026 Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Survey highlights a crucial point beyond the headline average sentiment indices.
The variation or dispersion of producer sentiment holds significant implications.
Data shows a distinct negative correlation between the dispersion of sentiment among corn and soybean producers and the overall average AEB index itself.
In months where producer sentiment averages are high, indicating general optimism, the range of sentiment tends to be narrower.
Conversely, when average sentiment drops, we see a wider spread in views among producers.
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