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Market Watch

Market Watch

How Bond Traders, Not Central Banks, Are Driving Rates

Oct 15, 2026 · 12 min · 9 segments

**Inflation Pressures Mount as Fed Decision Looms** U.S. September CPI showed renewed acceleration driven by energy prices, with further increases expected into year-end. Real wages are under…

**Inflation Pressures Mount as Fed Decision Looms** U.S. September CPI showed renewed acceleration driven by energy prices, with further increases expected into year-end. Real wages are under pressure, with consumer-facing companies including Domino's Pizza and McDonald's already signalling stress. Laurent Lequeu, independent market analyst and writer for the Macro Butler newsletter, examines how rising inflation and a weakening employment market could push the U.S. towards stagflation, what the bond market's move at the longer end signals about structural inflation and fiscal credibility, and how the interest rate differential and capital flows are shaping the yen's outlook. He also explores China's widening trade imbalance and its reliance on exports over domestic consumption. Tune in for his read on where the Fed, Bank of Japan, and bond traders go from here. Image Credit: Shutterstock See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

**Inflation Pressures Mount as Fed Decision Looms** U.S. September CPI showed renewed acceleration driven by energy prices, with further increases expected into year-end. Real wages are under…

Spotify Apple Podcasts YouTube Website

Speakers: Laurent LequeuGuestRoshan KanesanHostRich BradburyHost

Top entities: United States×25 Bank of Japan×7 Japan×13 Dow Jones Industrial Average×3 Federal Reserve System×22

Show signals: SuitabilitySafeBiasNot politicalAudience≈1.2M followers

Global Markets Sell Off0:13 – 1:41

Rich BradburyHost

0:13

Let's take a quick look at how the global markets closed yesterday.

Rich BradburyHost

0:16

Glancing at my screen already, it's not looking so good.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:20

Yeah, Wall Street fell sharply overnight after hotter-than-expected US inflation revived fears of a further Fed rate hike later this month.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:29

While AI-related stocks took a brunt of the selling, including, I believe, Oracle that fell some 8%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:36

Yeah, 8.8%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:38

Colwee fell 15%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:40

So there's a lot happening there.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:42

And you look at the general market here.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:44

The Dow was down 0.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:46

And, you know, the Dow generally industrial, so a little bit, you know, it doesn't make you feel too much about it.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:51

And then you look at the S&P and the NASDAQ.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:53

The S&P is down 1.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:55

And the NASDAQ is down 1.9%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:58

So the tech-related entities got hit quite hard by that.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:03

If we take a look a little further behind us and look at Asian markets and how they closed yesterday, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and STI all closed down 0.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:14

Shanghai closed 0.9% down, so quite a bit of heavy losses yesterday.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:19

And the KOSPI was down 0.4%.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:20

Of course, with this tech selling happening, it'll be very, we'll need to pay attention to Japan, Korea and China when they open later.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:30

The only one that bucked the trend in our list actually is the FPMKLCI, which closed up 0.3% yesterday at 1,628 points.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:36

Rich BradburyHost

1:40

Right.

Rich BradburyHost

1:41

OK.

United StatesCountryCountry in North America
98%25 mentions
Bank of JapanGovernment OrganizationCentral bank
95%7 mentions
JapanCountryCountry in East Asia
91%13 mentions
Dow Jones Industrial AverageEntityStock market index
88%3 mentions
Federal Reserve SystemGovernment OrganizationCentral bank
84%22 mentions
ChinaCountryCountry in East Asia
81%16 mentions
BFM 89.9Radio StationRadio station
78%11 mentions
ShutterstockCompanyPhotograph company
74%2 mentions
Consumer price indexEntity
71%3 mentions
Central bankEntity
67%1 mention
East AsiaAdministrative AreaRegion in Asia
64%2 mentions
S&P 500EntityStock market index
60%3 mentions
McDonald'sRestaurantFast food restaurant chain
57%3 mentions
NasdaqEntityStock exchange
53%3 mentions
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIEntityStock market index
50%1 mention
OracleCompanySoftware company
47%1 mention
Donald TrumpPerson45th and 47th U.S. President
43%2 mentions
MalaysiaCountryCountry in Asia
40%2 mentions
Domino'sRestaurantRestaurant chain
36%2 mentions
YieldEntity
33%1 mention
Japanese yenEntityCurrency
29%1 mention
Wall StreetTourist AttractionStreet in New York
26%1 mention
BangkokCityCapital of Thailand
22%2 mentions
KOSPIEntityIndex
19%1 mention
Hang Seng IndexEntityStock market index
16%1 mention
ShanghaiCityMunicipality in China
12%1 mention
United States Secretary of the TreasuryEntity
9%1 mention
International Monetary FundEntity
5%1 mention
Federal Open Market CommitteeOrganizationGovernment agency
2%1 mention

Monetary PolicyFinance
Federal ReserveFinance > Monetary Policy
Equity MarketsFinance > Financial Markets
International RelationsGovernment
Inflation and EmploymentEconomics > Macroeconomics
Global Stock IndicesFinance > Financial Markets > Equity Markets
U.S. and Asian Market PerformanceFinance > Financial Markets > Equity Markets > Global Stock Indices
U.S. Stagflation RiskEconomics > Macroeconomics > Inflation and Employment
Real Wages and Consumer SpendingEconomics > Macroeconomics > Inflation and Employment > U.S. Stagflation Risk
Interest-Rate PathFinance > Monetary Policy > Federal Reserve
Inflation-Driven Rate-Hike ExpectationsFinance > Monetary Policy > Federal Reserve > Interest-Rate Path
Bond Yields and Yield CurveFinance > Fixed Income Markets > Government Bonds
Treasury-Market Influence on Interest RatesFinance > Fixed Income Markets > Government Bonds > Bond Yields and Yield Curve
China's External EconomyGovernment > International Relations > International Trade
Trade SurplusGovernment > International Relations > International Trade > China's External Economy
Export Dependence and Trading-Partner PushbackGovernment > International Relations > International Trade > China's External Economy > Trade Surplus
MacroeconomicsEconomics
Financial MarketsFinance
Government BondsFinance > Fixed Income Markets
International TradeGovernment > International Relations
Fixed Income MarketsFinance
Economics
Government
Finance

Global Markets Sell Off0:13 – 1:41

Rich BradburyHost

0:13

Let's take a quick look at how the global markets closed yesterday.

Rich BradburyHost

0:16

Glancing at my screen already, it's not looking so good.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:20

Yeah, Wall Street fell sharply overnight after hotter-than-expected US inflation revived fears of a further Fed rate hike later this month.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:29

While AI-related stocks took a brunt of the selling, including, I believe, Oracle that fell some 8%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:36

Yeah, 8.8%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:38

Colwee fell 15%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:40

So there's a lot happening there.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:42

And you look at the general market here.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:44

The Dow was down 0.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:46

And, you know, the Dow generally industrial, so a little bit, you know, it doesn't make you feel too much about it.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:51

And then you look at the S&P and the NASDAQ.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:53

The S&P is down 1.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:55

And the NASDAQ is down 1.9%.

Roshan KanesanHost

0:58

So the tech-related entities got hit quite hard by that.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:03

If we take a look a little further behind us and look at Asian markets and how they closed yesterday, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and STI all closed down 0.1%.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:14

Shanghai closed 0.9% down, so quite a bit of heavy losses yesterday.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:19

And the KOSPI was down 0.4%.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:20

Of course, with this tech selling happening, it'll be very, we'll need to pay attention to Japan, Korea and China when they open later.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:30

The only one that bucked the trend in our list actually is the FPMKLCI, which closed up 0.3% yesterday at 1,628 points.

Roshan KanesanHost

1:36

Rich BradburyHost

1:40

Right.

Rich BradburyHost

1:41

OK.

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