[upbeat music] Rapidly rising earnings forecasts alongside higher long-term bond yields are not contradictory signals.
Structural forces are reshaping markets, supporting earnings, and keeping the cost of capital higher.
Five years after the last economic downturn, analysts are still raising earnings forecasts.
In the past, earnings growth typically stalled and then contracted every four to six years.
For example, the AI build-out is boosting productivity and profit margins, while supply scarcity is changing how capital is deployed across the economy.
[upbeat music] But the same forces supporting earnings are also pushing bond yields higher.
Governments, AI hyperscalers, and companies are all competing more intensely for capital.
Combined with inflation uncertainty, we think investors will keep demanding more compensation for holding long-term government bonds or term premium.
[upbeat music] We've argued that this environment calls for a different approach to portfolio construction.
The industry's growing focus on the total portfolio approach reflects that shift.
We prefer growth exposure through equities and private infrastructure equity over high-yield credit.
Tighter spreads see us go underweight in high-yield credit strategically and reinforce our view that equities are better positioned if earning strength persists.
We favor durable income in select private credit, overtaking more duration risk in government bonds and global IG credit.
[upbeat music] Rapidly rising earnings forecasts alongside higher long-term bond yields are not contradictory signals.
Structural forces are reshaping markets, supporting earnings, and keeping the cost of capital higher.
Five years after the last economic downturn, analysts are still raising earnings forecasts.
In the past, earnings growth typically stalled and then contracted every four to six years.
For example, the AI build-out is boosting productivity and profit margins, while supply scarcity is changing how capital is deployed across the economy.
[upbeat music] But the same forces supporting earnings are also pushing bond yields higher.
Governments, AI hyperscalers, and companies are all competing more intensely for capital.
Combined with inflation uncertainty, we think investors will keep demanding more compensation for holding long-term government bonds or term premium.
[upbeat music] We've argued that this environment calls for a different approach to portfolio construction.
The industry's growing focus on the total portfolio approach reflects that shift.
We prefer growth exposure through equities and private infrastructure equity over high-yield credit.
Tighter spreads see us go underweight in high-yield credit strategically and reinforce our view that equities are better positioned if earning strength persists.
We favor durable income in select private credit, overtaking more duration risk in government bonds and global IG credit.
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