The key question is, why are yields rising? If they're moving up because investment and growth are accelerating, stronger earnings can help outweigh the impact of higher borrowing costs.
So why did our views on EM stocks change? Earnings durability is a key measure as interest rates reset higher.
Earnings growth has accelerated while valuations remain well below those in the US.
We stepped back to neutral in June as leverage concerns, especially in Korea, were building.
Since then, de-leveraging has eased those concerns, supporting our move back to overweight.
EM equities offer another way to express one of our highest conviction investment themes, AI scarcity.
Meanwhile, Latin America offers exposure to other scarce resources and physical infrastructure supporting the build-out.
All of these are different expressions of the AI scarcity theme that underpins our US equity overweight.
Our return to overweight in EM equities comes alongside our downgrade of short-term European government bonds.
If AI earnings disappoint, leverage concerns grow, or higher long-term rates create a bigger hurdle for stocks, we'd reassess.
The key question is, why are yields rising? If they're moving up because investment and growth are accelerating, stronger earnings can help outweigh the impact of higher borrowing costs.
So why did our views on EM stocks change? Earnings durability is a key measure as interest rates reset higher.
Earnings growth has accelerated while valuations remain well below those in the US.
We stepped back to neutral in June as leverage concerns, especially in Korea, were building.
Since then, de-leveraging has eased those concerns, supporting our move back to overweight.
EM equities offer another way to express one of our highest conviction investment themes, AI scarcity.
Meanwhile, Latin America offers exposure to other scarce resources and physical infrastructure supporting the build-out.
All of these are different expressions of the AI scarcity theme that underpins our US equity overweight.
Our return to overweight in EM equities comes alongside our downgrade of short-term European government bonds.
If AI earnings disappoint, leverage concerns grow, or higher long-term rates create a bigger hurdle for stocks, we'd reassess.
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