Sep 4, 2026 · 11 min · 8 segments
Madison and Wall's Brian Wieser and Luke Stillman digs into how the advertising business really works. Subscribe for analysis, insight and more about advertising, media and technology trends.
Brian WieserHostExpectations of a hike in the US have gone up to 70% before the end of the year.
So I think nobody really expecting easier interest rate environments in the near future.
Yeah, and I think it really is relevant for the broader economy and ultimately for the advertising market in terms of a long-term headwind.
Frankly, a 5% interest rate on a 30-year is not by itself a bad thing, but it's more what it's symptomatic of or symbolizing or representing that is a bigger problem, I think.
So, yeah, we want to monitor it and be aware for if further problems follow from it.
It also turns out the case that European headline retail sales are in volume, not actual turnover or revenue.
But if you look at it on the basis that most people, certainly in the U.S. or Canada, look at retail sales and on a year-over-year basis – In total sales, it's like a three and a half percent kind of number.
So the latest data for July, it looks like, OK, maybe it's being impacted by high oil prices, but it's actually about the same as what we see in the US.
Expectations of a hike in the US have gone up to 70% before the end of the year.
So I think nobody really expecting easier interest rate environments in the near future.
Yeah, and I think it really is relevant for the broader economy and ultimately for the advertising market in terms of a long-term headwind.
Frankly, a 5% interest rate on a 30-year is not by itself a bad thing, but it's more what it's symptomatic of or symbolizing or representing that is a bigger problem, I think.
So, yeah, we want to monitor it and be aware for if further problems follow from it.
It also turns out the case that European headline retail sales are in volume, not actual turnover or revenue.
But if you look at it on the basis that most people, certainly in the U.S. or Canada, look at retail sales and on a year-over-year basis – In total sales, it's like a three and a half percent kind of number.
So the latest data for July, it looks like, OK, maybe it's being impacted by high oil prices, but it's actually about the same as what we see in the US.
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