Aug 14, 2026 · 10 min · 8 segments
This week on the M&W podcast Brian and Luke review what we did that wasn't work, the latest economics news, our work of the week and the work we wished we got to but didn't.
Brian WieserHostLuke StillmanHostYeah, I mean, we got retail sales today, which were a little weak, but some of that was Amazon Prime Day was time shifted by a month compared to last year.
Other than that, inflation still not too bad, down a tenth from the month before, so the Fed likely to stay on hold.
And I think that, you know, again, the commentary that is so commonly used focuses on the sequential growth and a disappointment on a sequential basis.
But again, the right way we think to look at the data is year over year and then compare what the year over year trend is and how that's evolving.
As opposed to the way that it gets characterized on a sequential monthly basis just doesn't really reflect, I think, the underlying tenor of the market.
But if you think about retail sales historically over the last decade, 15 years, it's been a 3% kind of number in nominal terms with low inflation.
With inflation that's elevated, back to this healthy economy, not standing any K-shaped outcomes.
Yeah, consumers are remarkably resilient, and we see it in the results of sellers of advertising.
Yeah, I mean, we got retail sales today, which were a little weak, but some of that was Amazon Prime Day was time shifted by a month compared to last year.
Other than that, inflation still not too bad, down a tenth from the month before, so the Fed likely to stay on hold.
And I think that, you know, again, the commentary that is so commonly used focuses on the sequential growth and a disappointment on a sequential basis.
But again, the right way we think to look at the data is year over year and then compare what the year over year trend is and how that's evolving.
As opposed to the way that it gets characterized on a sequential monthly basis just doesn't really reflect, I think, the underlying tenor of the market.
But if you think about retail sales historically over the last decade, 15 years, it's been a 3% kind of number in nominal terms with low inflation.
With inflation that's elevated, back to this healthy economy, not standing any K-shaped outcomes.
Yeah, consumers are remarkably resilient, and we see it in the results of sellers of advertising.
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