Oct 30, 2026 · 15 min · 8 segments
Lula shocked Brazil – BRL is still reeling. Israel's votes are in – no winner yet. South Africa passed the budget test – local elections are next. And year-end seasonality? Right around the corner…
Abbas KeshvaniGuestDaria ParkhomenkoHost
Luis EstradaGuestSo shifting gears a bit here, we are approaching year-end, and my understanding is that there tends to be a year-end seasonality in Thai baht.
And the reason for this is that Thailand is a very tourist dependent economy and the tourist arrivals tend to pick up around year end.
particularly tourists from Europe and North America who are going for their end-of-year holidays.
And these tourists also happen to be generally large spenders because they stay for longer and they come from developed economies.
So it tends to be a good month for the Thai tourism sector, and you tend to see an upswell in tourist receipts.
And Unlike other current account surplus economies, Thailand's current account surplus is decentralized.
So the conversion of that surplus tends to occur in the month where it is incurred.
So rather than have that surplus go to large companies, which have their own sort of dedicated FX conversion protocols and systems, this will go to smaller businesses, often to individuals working in the tourism sector.
and therefore tends to be converted at the point that the surplus is incurred.
So December, when Thailand tends to see those tourist arrivals spend the money, tends to see a lot of conversion into baht, and therefore the currency tends to get strong.
We have seen the Thai baht strengthen every single year in December for the last eight years.
Not as reliable as December, but November is also a month where the tourism arrivals pick up.
But beyond that, beyond the tourism seasonality, i do fret about the disruptions secular disruptions to the tourism sector from the war i also worry about the widening trade deficit that thailand is incurring and some of these concerns will be mollified by the tourism seasonal upswing but beyond december certainly once you get into next year that's when we have to start to worry about some of the current account deterioration that thailand is seeing but for now in the short term i think we can look forward to a reprieve from those concerns On the topic of seasonality, Luis, in LATAM, there tends to be seasonality in your end as well.
So shifting gears a bit here, we are approaching year-end, and my understanding is that there tends to be a year-end seasonality in Thai baht.
And the reason for this is that Thailand is a very tourist dependent economy and the tourist arrivals tend to pick up around year end.
particularly tourists from Europe and North America who are going for their end-of-year holidays.
And these tourists also happen to be generally large spenders because they stay for longer and they come from developed economies.
So it tends to be a good month for the Thai tourism sector, and you tend to see an upswell in tourist receipts.
And Unlike other current account surplus economies, Thailand's current account surplus is decentralized.
So the conversion of that surplus tends to occur in the month where it is incurred.
So rather than have that surplus go to large companies, which have their own sort of dedicated FX conversion protocols and systems, this will go to smaller businesses, often to individuals working in the tourism sector.
and therefore tends to be converted at the point that the surplus is incurred.
So December, when Thailand tends to see those tourist arrivals spend the money, tends to see a lot of conversion into baht, and therefore the currency tends to get strong.
We have seen the Thai baht strengthen every single year in December for the last eight years.
Not as reliable as December, but November is also a month where the tourism arrivals pick up.
But beyond that, beyond the tourism seasonality, i do fret about the disruptions secular disruptions to the tourism sector from the war i also worry about the widening trade deficit that thailand is incurring and some of these concerns will be mollified by the tourism seasonal upswing but beyond december certainly once you get into next year that's when we have to start to worry about some of the current account deterioration that thailand is seeing but for now in the short term i think we can look forward to a reprieve from those concerns On the topic of seasonality, Luis, in LATAM, there tends to be seasonality in your end as well.
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