Aug 21, 2026 · 11 min · 8 segments
Australia's property market is cooling — but is Australia really in a property recession? In this interview with ABC Radio Adelaide, Hotspotting Managing Director Tim Graham cuts through the…
Tim GrahamGuest
Terry RyderHost

Yeah, look, I suppose to give some context to today's discussion, the most recent report we put out is what we call the winter edition of our price predict index.

And essentially, I suppose we're a little bit different to the typical media that you read around real estate is that we don't really report on what's happened.

Instead, we like to create some forward-looking insights, and we do that through a number of proprietary formulas, the first one being the price predict index, which monitors sales volumes as a bit of a precursor to price movements.

So, typically, if we see rising sales activity, which we certainly have in Adelaide for the last five years, that's where we tend to see forward-looking price growth.

And then at the opposite end of that, if we see sales activity starting to wean, then we often see prices starting to ease.

We have a second layer of methodology, which we call our hot spotting thermometer, which looks at market pressure, live market pressure on a market.

And we measure every suburb in Australia on a score of 100, talking about how much pressure there is on the market.

We look at number of vacancy rates, the percentage of property selling above asking price, and And essentially what that does is identify how much pressure is on a market.



Yeah, look, I suppose to give some context to today's discussion, the most recent report we put out is what we call the winter edition of our price predict index.

And essentially, I suppose we're a little bit different to the typical media that you read around real estate is that we don't really report on what's happened.

Instead, we like to create some forward-looking insights, and we do that through a number of proprietary formulas, the first one being the price predict index, which monitors sales volumes as a bit of a precursor to price movements.

So, typically, if we see rising sales activity, which we certainly have in Adelaide for the last five years, that's where we tend to see forward-looking price growth.

And then at the opposite end of that, if we see sales activity starting to wean, then we often see prices starting to ease.

We have a second layer of methodology, which we call our hot spotting thermometer, which looks at market pressure, live market pressure on a market.

And we measure every suburb in Australia on a score of 100, talking about how much pressure there is on the market.

We look at number of vacancy rates, the percentage of property selling above asking price, and And essentially what that does is identify how much pressure is on a market.

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