The Investment Clock: What Financial Advisers Need to Know About Market Cycles | Trevor Greetham & Robin Ellis

Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi-Asset at Royal London Asset Management, still measures market timing with a clock face borrowed from a 1930s newspaper.  The idea dates back to a reference Trevor found from the London Evening Standard, a clock face marking out stages of the economic cycle: recession, recovery, late cycle, slowdown, each paired with the assets that historically perform well there. The problem, he explains, is that confirming exactly where you sit on that clock in real time is nearly impossible. Recessions are usually only confirmed months after they start, by which point markets have already moved on without you. Rather than guessing, Trevor's team at Royal London reads growth and inflation directly to estimate the current position. Falling inflation paired with strengthening growth points to recovery, favouring stocks. A slowdown paired with rising inflation points to stagflation, favouring commodities. This year, that reading has pointed to stagflation, with tensions in the Middle East cited as the driver, and it feeds directly into the team's daily tactical positioning. The conversation also brings in Robin Ellis, Director of Portfolio Management at St. James's Place, who talks through how Saint James's Place selects and vets the fund managers advisers ultimately rely on. He's candid about a trap he fell into earlier in his career, mistaking a confident conference speaker for a genuinely strong investment process, and why SJP now runs a weekly adviser podcast and curates its annual investment conference specifically to avoid that mistake. Trevor also explains why the phrase "passive multi-asset" doesn't really make sense to him, since clients rarely come to an adviser asking for a specific asset class, they come with a savings goal and a risk appetite that needs blending into a portfolio, not a label. Key takeaways from this episode: - How the investment clock framework has been used to read markets since the 1930s - Why knowing exactly where you are in the economic cycle in real time is nearly impossible - How Trevor's team uses growth and inflation indicators instead of guesswork - Why this year's read has pointed to stagflation, and what that means for portfolio positioning - Why Trevor believes "passive multi-asset" is a phrase that doesn't really hold up - Why a great conference speaker isn't always a sign of a great investment team - How St. James's Place vets and curates the fund managers advisers ultimately rely on - Why SJP runs a weekly adviser podcast alongside its annual investment conference This episode is for financial advisers who want a clearer framework for reading market cycles, and for anyone curious about how professional portfolio managers actually separate a good pitch from a genuinely good process. Learn more about Royal London Asset Management at royallondon.com , and about St. James's Place at sjp.co.uk.  **Financial Planner Life is sponsored by** Redmill Advance Whether you're starting out, already qualified, or building a training academy, Redmill Advance delivers expert-led learning, exam support and CPD from Level 4 to Chartered. ✅ Trusted by top UK firms **👉** www.redmilladvance.com/fpl Be sure to follow Financial Planner Life on YouTube for extra content about  career development within Financial Planning.  Reach out to **sam@financialplannerlife.com** in regards to sponsorship, partnerships, videography or podcast production.  **Want to appear on the Financial Planner Life podcast? Drop Sam a message.**