Oct 12, 2026 · 5 min · 4 segments
New research suggests people aren't waiting around for the election to make big financial decisions. ASB analysis of the last 20 years of elections shows spending and investment don't tend to slow…
Mark SmithGuest
Mike HoskingHost
Uh, I think the wisdom is generally firms and households delay major decisions till after elections.
D- Well, see, 'cause can you go by the individual sets of cycles? I mean, the early years of MMP, for example, I remember them well.
Well, we looked at the seven elections, so obviously different, different periods, and also looking at, you know, consumer spending, investment, house sales, a whole bunch of things.
And but generally, the evidence does suggest that while there are some slight differences, for example, the GFC and COVID, there was, uh, obviously quite a lot of difference there.
The general trend is that activity is actually stronger before elections rather than after.
Even though in some elections, those, those individual campaigns, you will have seen the outcome coming, 2020 being a very good example.
So you knew what was gonna happen in 2020, or would you argue because it was COVID, things changed?
Uh, I think y- you've gotta sort of distinguish, you know, the, the election from the individual shocks hitting the economy.
Uh, the GFC and COVID were, were two nota- notable cases where our results were slightly different.
So, you know, there's always elections to worry about, but there's also a whole lot of other things that firms and households have to grapple with.
The housing market does surprise me almost to the point I might argue with you because it's such a large decision.
At the moment, for example, you can't tell me what's gonna happen in this next election.
Uh, I think the wisdom is generally firms and households delay major decisions till after elections.
D- Well, see, 'cause can you go by the individual sets of cycles? I mean, the early years of MMP, for example, I remember them well.
Well, we looked at the seven elections, so obviously different, different periods, and also looking at, you know, consumer spending, investment, house sales, a whole bunch of things.
And but generally, the evidence does suggest that while there are some slight differences, for example, the GFC and COVID, there was, uh, obviously quite a lot of difference there.
The general trend is that activity is actually stronger before elections rather than after.
Even though in some elections, those, those individual campaigns, you will have seen the outcome coming, 2020 being a very good example.
So you knew what was gonna happen in 2020, or would you argue because it was COVID, things changed?
Uh, I think y- you've gotta sort of distinguish, you know, the, the election from the individual shocks hitting the economy.
Uh, the GFC and COVID were, were two nota- notable cases where our results were slightly different.
So, you know, there's always elections to worry about, but there's also a whole lot of other things that firms and households have to grapple with.
The housing market does surprise me almost to the point I might argue with you because it's such a large decision.
At the moment, for example, you can't tell me what's gonna happen in this next election.
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