mRNA Flu Vaccine, Measles, Fauci and RFK Jr.: News of the Week

Let's begin with something that I think is genuinely exciting.

The FDA has approved the first mRNA vaccine for seasonal influenza.

It's called M. flusiva.

Moderna makes it.

And it's approved for adults aged 50 and older.

And almost immediately, social media did what social media does.

A pre-pint appeared arguing that the vaccine should be pulled from the market.

Now this one is worth discussing because the numbers being circulated are, for the most part, real.

It is what people are doing with those numbers that is the problem.

The pivotal trial included more than 40,000 adults aged 50 and older.

About half received the new mRNA flu vaccine, and the other half received a conventional flu vaccine.

And that part is very, very important.

This was not an mRNA vaccine versus a placebo, because that would be unethical.

Everybody receives a flu vaccine.

The question was whether the new vaccine performed better than the existing one.

And it did.

Across confirmed influenza cases, the mRNA vaccine provided about 26.6% greater protection than the standard flu vaccine.

For cases requiring medical care, the difference was larger.

And when investigators looked at the more serious cases, people requiring urgent care, an emergency department visit, or hospitalization, the apparent advantage was larger still.

Now, you may have seen a graphic claiming that more than 5,000 people would need to receive this vaccine to prevent one hospitalization.

And that sounds terrible.

Until you look at what the calculation actually means.

There were eight hospitalizations in the conventional flu vaccine group and four in the mRNA vaccine group.

So the calculation is not saying that you need to vaccinate 5,000 unvaccinated people to protect one.

It means roughly 5,000 people would need to receive the new vaccine instead of the old vaccine to prevent one additional hospitalization.