Aug 31, 2026 · 4 min · 7 segments
What opportunities do El Niño's climate risks, Alibaba's massive $10.2B AI fundraising placement and a wave of contested M&A deals down under present? In this Curator's Cut, we explore: • El Niño…
1.
Soft commodities – risks as El Nino firms Back in April, we highlighted supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with weather risks for some soft commodities, including the rising risk of El Nino forming.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US Department of Commerce declared El Nino had formed on 11 June, and we are now firmly in very strong El Nino territory.
The Commodity Report reviews the data to highlight that it isn't time yet for some classic El Nino signs, and that the Indian monsoon is below normal, as it tends to be in this climate pattern.
That faltering Indian monsoon has had its impact thus far on sugar, as India is the largest producer and a top exporter of the commodity.
Beat the Street reviewed the sugar inventory situation in the country, and identified key companies who could benefit from the situation.
While Treefarer's India sugarcane model shows planted area running 3-4% ahead of the last official benchmark, they warn that a handful of districts can swing national production by 1-2 million metric tonnes, and tracking the vegetative condition of the crop is critical.
Rubber creuses have similarly seen strength this year.
Agriculture ministry data show that the area under rubber has declined by about 17% in five years, from 3.78 million hectares in 2021 to an estimated 3.13 million hectares in 2026.
Production has fallen from more than 3 million tonnes in 2021 to a projected under 2 million tonnes this year.
The sharper decline in output than acreage highlights a productivity problem with ageing trees, inadequate replanting, disease and insufficient farm investment compounding the loss of land.
Check out Treefarer's latest comments on wheat and corn for some actionable takes based on their first-mile analysis.
1.
Soft commodities – risks as El Nino firms Back in April, we highlighted supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with weather risks for some soft commodities, including the rising risk of El Nino forming.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US Department of Commerce declared El Nino had formed on 11 June, and we are now firmly in very strong El Nino territory.
The Commodity Report reviews the data to highlight that it isn't time yet for some classic El Nino signs, and that the Indian monsoon is below normal, as it tends to be in this climate pattern.
That faltering Indian monsoon has had its impact thus far on sugar, as India is the largest producer and a top exporter of the commodity.
Beat the Street reviewed the sugar inventory situation in the country, and identified key companies who could benefit from the situation.
While Treefarer's India sugarcane model shows planted area running 3-4% ahead of the last official benchmark, they warn that a handful of districts can swing national production by 1-2 million metric tonnes, and tracking the vegetative condition of the crop is critical.
Rubber creuses have similarly seen strength this year.
Agriculture ministry data show that the area under rubber has declined by about 17% in five years, from 3.78 million hectares in 2021 to an estimated 3.13 million hectares in 2026.
Production has fallen from more than 3 million tonnes in 2021 to a projected under 2 million tonnes this year.
The sharper decline in output than acreage highlights a productivity problem with ageing trees, inadequate replanting, disease and insufficient farm investment compounding the loss of land.
Check out Treefarer's latest comments on wheat and corn for some actionable takes based on their first-mile analysis.
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