Conflict speculation drives crop markets.

The important story this week is that expectations around the Russia and Ukraine conflicts are clearly driving the markets.

Still, global wheat prices fell as Russia and Ukraine managed to increase shipments through alternative routes.

Canola also weakened with larger Canadian supply and softer U.S. soybean prices outweighing continued support from biofuel demand and constrained Black Sea oil seed exports.

And cattle prices fell across the board.

Dry conditions through Queensland and New South Wales, together with a sharp rise in yardings, outweighed still strong U.S. demand for Australian beef.

Let's start on the grain side of things.

Global wheat prices fell 3% for the week.

The market is increasingly focused on one question, how much Russia and Ukraine can actually export, and especially if an agreement is reached.

Reuters estimated that 20% of Russia's Black Sea and Sea of Azov export capacity is seriously damaged, but roughly 80% could restart relatively quickly if attacks stop and shipping conditions improve.

One major Novorossiysk terminal could still take four to six months to repair.

That means the downside risk for wheat prices is considerable if a deal is reached.

The lot can leave those Black Sea ports.

But current exports remain weak.

ICAR lifted its estimate of Russian September wheat exports to 2.3 million tons, but that is still well below the 4.1 million tons exported in September loss.

year.

Russia is moving more

grain through Baltic ports, but those routes have a capacity of only about 8 million tonnes, according to Eugro Acro Consult.

That is small compared to Russia's expected annual wheat exports of roughly 40 to 43 million tonnes in 2026-27.

So alternative routes help, but they cannot fully replace the Black Sea.

India also added some downward price pressure this week.

Bloomberg reported India made its first significant wheat export sales since removing its export ban in August, selling 200,000 tons of wheat to Bangladesh.

India harvested a record crop this year, so its return to export markets increases competition for Australian wheat.

Here at home, national APW1 track wheat prices fell 1.4% for the week, while feed barley prices declined 0.4%.

The Australian dollar weakened 1.8% for the week, which cushioned local prices against the larger offshore declines.

Weather was also favorable through key southern regions.

The important story this week is that expectations around the Russia and Ukraine conflicts are clearly driving the markets.

Still, global wheat prices fell as Russia and Ukraine managed to increase shipments through alternative routes.

Canola also weakened with larger Canadian supply and softer U.S. soybean prices outweighing continued support from biofuel demand and constrained Black Sea oil seed exports.

And cattle prices fell across the board.

Dry conditions through Queensland and New South Wales, together with a sharp rise in yardings, outweighed still strong U.S. demand for Australian beef.

Let's start on the grain side of things.

Global wheat prices fell 3% for the week.

The market is increasingly focused on one question, how much Russia and Ukraine can actually export, and especially if an agreement is reached.

Reuters estimated that 20% of Russia's Black Sea and Sea of Azov export capacity is seriously damaged, but roughly 80% could restart relatively quickly if attacks stop and shipping conditions improve.

One major Novorossiysk terminal could still take four to six months to repair.

That means the downside risk for wheat prices is considerable if a deal is reached.

The lot can leave those Black Sea ports.

But current exports remain weak.

ICAR lifted its estimate of Russian September wheat exports to 2.3 million tons, but that is still well below the 4.1 million tons exported in September loss.

year.

Russia is moving more

grain through Baltic ports, but those routes have a capacity of only about 8 million tonnes, according to Eugro Acro Consult.

That is small compared to Russia's expected annual wheat exports of roughly 40 to 43 million tonnes in 2026-27.

So alternative routes help, but they cannot fully replace the Black Sea.

India also added some downward price pressure this week.

Bloomberg reported India made its first significant wheat export sales since removing its export ban in August, selling 200,000 tons of wheat to Bangladesh.

India harvested a record crop this year, so its return to export markets increases competition for Australian wheat.

Here at home, national APW1 track wheat prices fell 1.4% for the week, while feed barley prices declined 0.4%.

The Australian dollar weakened 1.8% for the week, which cushioned local prices against the larger offshore declines.

Weather was also favorable through key southern regions.