Markets Weekly podcast (20 July 2026): How AI affects economies

Now, before that, let's debrief a bit last week.

It was a fairly busy week.

We had a soft inflation print in the US, which lowered a bit the At risk of an overtightening by the US Federal Reserve, the market as we speak is pressing at about one rate hike between now and the end of the year.

This is down from almost to hike at some point, but it's not down as much as it would be otherwise, simply because we have seen renewed tension in the Middle East, as you know.

And that, of course, has had a direct impact on the price of oil, with Brent now trading above $90 a barrel.

The question for investors is whether this conflict is going to escalate further.

This is a key risk, one that we flagged in our media outlook, and the reality is that When we published this outlook, we made the assumption that this trade of form would reopen and that the inflationary shock would be temporary.

Now, does that mean our central case is being challenged? Well, to some degree, although for us, the...

Kinetic action is not really the point here.

The point is whether the oil market is impacted in particular via the Strait of Hormuz.

And yes, oil prices have gone up quite a lot from their lows, but they also remain quite significantly below the highs that we reach in March, where If you remember, Brent was trading above $120 a barrel.

So it's a bit early for us to throw everything that we've written in our immediate outlook and consider an alternative scenario.

But clearly this is a situation that is worth monitoring very closely.

Now, before that, let's debrief a bit last week.

It was a fairly busy week.

We had a soft inflation print in the US, which lowered a bit the At risk of an overtightening by the US Federal Reserve, the market as we speak is pressing at about one rate hike between now and the end of the year.

This is down from almost to hike at some point, but it's not down as much as it would be otherwise, simply because we have seen renewed tension in the Middle East, as you know.

And that, of course, has had a direct impact on the price of oil, with Brent now trading above $90 a barrel.

The question for investors is whether this conflict is going to escalate further.

This is a key risk, one that we flagged in our media outlook, and the reality is that When we published this outlook, we made the assumption that this trade of form would reopen and that the inflationary shock would be temporary.

Now, does that mean our central case is being challenged? Well, to some degree, although for us, the...

Kinetic action is not really the point here.

The point is whether the oil market is impacted in particular via the Strait of Hormuz.

And yes, oil prices have gone up quite a lot from their lows, but they also remain quite significantly below the highs that we reach in March, where If you remember, Brent was trading above $120 a barrel.

So it's a bit early for us to throw everything that we've written in our immediate outlook and consider an alternative scenario.

But clearly this is a situation that is worth monitoring very closely.