Will Sydney see its biggest house price fall in 40 years?

Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest Three rate rises and one very anti-property budget have done something to the Sydney market that no bank forecast a year ago. The question we argue about in this episode isn't whether prices are falling. It's how far they go, and whether the worst of it has already happened on the ground while the data is still 6 months behind. In this episode Curtis and I go city by city through what ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic are actually forecasting for the next 12 months, then put our own numbers next to theirs. Curtis calls Sydney at 15.1%, which would make it the biggest fall in 40 years. I land closer to 11 or 12%, and I explain why the composition of the Sydney market makes a 15% aggregate fall very hard to produce. We then work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, what listings are signalling in each one, and the single event that flips the whole market. What you'll learn: 📍 What ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic have forecast for every capital city, and exactly where we disagree with them 📍 Why Sydney is behaving like two separate markets, and why the top end is wearing most of the fall 📍 The case for Western Sydney outperforming the national market over the next 5 years 📍 Why I think the trough was yesterday rather than tomorrow, and what a lagging data series hides from buyers 📍 Brisbane listings swinging from 40% below average to 8% above in the space of 7 months, on the lowest yields in the country at 3.3% 📍 Why Adelaide is capped by rents, and why Perth may still have room left in the tank 📍 The labour market numbers the RBA isn't reading, and why I think 6 to 8 rate cuts are coming Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week. #AustralianProperty #SydneyProperty #HousePrices #InterestRates #PropertyInvesting Chapters 00:00 The bold call - Sydney's biggest fall in 40 years? 00:32 What the banks are predicting for the next 12 months 01:05 Sydney: the ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic numbers 02:24 Curtis says 15.1%. I say 11 to 12 03:20 Two Sydneys - the top end is wearing the fall 06:19 Western Sydney and the composition problem 07:50 The trough was yesterday, not tomorrow 09:32 Melbourne - the same story, smaller 12:23 Why prices shouldn't keep falling into next year 13:40 Where I'd be buying right now 15:00 Brisbane - listings flip from 40% below to 8% above 15:53 Listings across every capital 17:03 Brisbane on 3.3% yields - is the cycle over? 18:14 Adelaide - capped by rents 18:56 Perth - flat now, more in the tank 20:46 It all hinges on the first rate cut 21:19 The labour market the RBA isn't reading 23:04 Final take - sharp, shallow and nearly over 24:33 Why Western Sydney outperforms from here This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au