American Ag Today- 10/12/26

Well, USDA's September Hogs and Pigs report puts the nationwide herd size at 74.3 million head.

That is up from the second quarter.

However, year over year, the market hog supply is down about 1.5%.

This includes the animals to market between now and February.

Now on the other hand, USDA's cold storage report, it indicates stocks as of August 31st are up 12% from a year ago.

On that note, beef stocks are up 5% from last year, but cold storage stocks of poultry are down 4%.

Jason Frank, an ag economist from the University of Missouri, says this all suggests consumers are still eating less red meat than before COVID.

The USDA projects US per capita pork consumption to be 49.4 pounds per person in 2026 and to rise to 49.9 pounds in 2027, notably below the peak exceeding 52 pounds in 2019.

Now the export picture for pork is off from last year too.

The July figure was down 5% from the previous year with lower shipments to Mexico, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong.

Those were not fully offset by increased pork exports to Japan, Canada, and a few other overseas markets.

USDA recognizes this, and Franken said the upshot is for lower exports in both the third and fourth quarters of this year.

Accordingly, USDA projections for pork exports are lowered to 1.64 and 1.88 billion pounds for the third and fourth quarters respectively, dropping annual exports to 7.11 billion pounds or 2% above last year, with forecasts rising another 1% in 2027.

With projections for domestic and export demand revised lower, Franken says hog prices will likely fall well short of year ago levels with producer profitability squeezed by prospects of higher feed costs.

While USDA is moving to boost meat processing capacity in the wake of recent presidential executive orders, the department is pushing to boost meat production and market access to expand supply, improve competition, and bring down meat prices, all per the executive order.

Well, USDA's September Hogs and Pigs report puts the nationwide herd size at 74.3 million head.

That is up from the second quarter.

However, year over year, the market hog supply is down about 1.5%.

This includes the animals to market between now and February.

Now on the other hand, USDA's cold storage report, it indicates stocks as of August 31st are up 12% from a year ago.

On that note, beef stocks are up 5% from last year, but cold storage stocks of poultry are down 4%.

Jason Frank, an ag economist from the University of Missouri, says this all suggests consumers are still eating less red meat than before COVID.

The USDA projects US per capita pork consumption to be 49.4 pounds per person in 2026 and to rise to 49.9 pounds in 2027, notably below the peak exceeding 52 pounds in 2019.

Now the export picture for pork is off from last year too.

The July figure was down 5% from the previous year with lower shipments to Mexico, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong.

Those were not fully offset by increased pork exports to Japan, Canada, and a few other overseas markets.

USDA recognizes this, and Franken said the upshot is for lower exports in both the third and fourth quarters of this year.

Accordingly, USDA projections for pork exports are lowered to 1.64 and 1.88 billion pounds for the third and fourth quarters respectively, dropping annual exports to 7.11 billion pounds or 2% above last year, with forecasts rising another 1% in 2027.

With projections for domestic and export demand revised lower, Franken says hog prices will likely fall well short of year ago levels with producer profitability squeezed by prospects of higher feed costs.

While USDA is moving to boost meat processing capacity in the wake of recent presidential executive orders, the department is pushing to boost meat production and market access to expand supply, improve competition, and bring down meat prices, all per the executive order.