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William Pesek

William Pesek

Tokyo-based journalist and author of "Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades"; former Bloomberg and Barron's columnist writing on Asian economics, markets and politics.

Oct 7, 2026

35:48
Well, now, what does she mean by that?
35:50
Well, I think she realizes that bond yields around the world are rising, perhaps in some ways, Japan especially, and she's trying to convince markets that, that, you know, sh- they have no reason to fear her fiscal plans for Asia's second biggest economy.
36:05
The problem is that no one's really buying that, right? Everyone understands the extent to which her economic plans are largely based on fresh stimulus.
36:13
They're largely based on fresh borrowing.
36:15
They're largely based on pressuring the Bank of Japan to keep rates as low as possible, and despite, um, her efforts to prop up the yen via intervention, she also would prefer to have a weaker yen to boost exports.
36:31
So in some ways, I think Japan's trying to have it both ways, right? They're trying to convince markets not to sell, you know, Japanese bonds all that aggressively.
36:39
At the same time- Trying to maintain some fiscal laxity, if you will, to stabilize the economy going forward.
38:40
I mean, she can't keep all these people happy, can she?
38:04
I am wondering, has sentiment towards the yen changed now? It's been persistently seen as a weak currency, but maybe is that sentiment starting to change
38:16
I mean, I think it might be in the short run, but I think the longer-term trajectory is still towards the end remaining week.
38:23
And the reason is the Liberal Democratic Party which Prime Minister Takeuchi hails from, has been ruling Japan since around 1955 with only a couple of short interruptions.
38:36
And their only consistent economic policy these last 50-plus years has been a weekend, aggressive fiscal loosening, ultra-low interest rates.
38:48
And I think it's tempting to argue that there is a change in sentiment towards the yen, but there's not a change in policy in Tokyo.
38:57
And I think that's kind of the missing link here.
38:59
Clearly, the Bank of Japan has been trying to normalize rates.
40:30
Either Scott Besson's got this wrong or the Japanese government is not on the same page, but they don't seem to be coordinated as maybe Scott Besson is trying to make out.
40:41
But Willie, how is Japan reacting to Mr. Trump and the tariffs? What are the effects so far? And what are the effects we're expecting in the short term?
40:54
Well, Japan is reacting very, very anxiously.
40:57
I think for the Japanese, this moment is very disorienting because Trump's first administration from 2017 to basically from 2020 to 2021 was a time where I think Japan felt that the U.S. and Japan were pretty much in sync.
41:11
At the time, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had expended a lot of political capital on this Trump romance.
41:20
He'd spent a lot of time at Mar-a-Lago, a lot of time basically holding Trump's hand geopolitically and in some ways positioning himself as the Trump whisperer among world leaders.
41:31
And they did have this bromance that I think many here believe that it shielded Japan from some of the worst of Trump's wrath.
41:38
This time around, Trump seems to have very little interest in Japan.
44:13
And, you know, the two coming together maybe is what is worrying.

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