We haven't talked about commodities for a while, but certainly they are in the conversation for the last one year or so.

Well, let's define our terms first of all.

When most people talk about commodities in a portfolio, they're talking about commodities futures.

And that's a mugs game, okay? Because what you're doing is you're buying a basket of futures that is selling, basically selling the futures, excuse me, buying long futures, okay? And the problem is when you decompose its returns, it's got three parts.

It's got the risk-free rate.

It's got the underlying spot because you can't buy the spot, okay, unless you have an oil tank in your backyard, right? And then there's what's called the roll return.

This is what people ignore, which is that if you are buying the futures and then letting them, when they settle, rolling that future out, that's the roll return.

Can you define that for us?

What did you create?

Well, I had an interesting experience, which is, you know, very early on, I understood the importance of maintaining a policy allocation and rebalancing towards it.

So in one asset class that particularly well, you bought, you sold it to sell it down to its policy.

And when it did poorly, you did the opposite.

You bought and went back up to your policy.

And one of the funds that I used was the old Vanguard precious metals fund, which back in the day was a real honest to God, low cost gold and precious metals equity fund.

And what I found was that simply by rebalancing it, the internal rate of return I got out of it was about 5% higher than the than the dollar weighted, excuse me, the time weighted return.

How can you not be overconfident?