Um, so I mean, how, how would you characterize the current state of the US fiscal picture right now?

Uh, so I, I think it is, uh, I, I think we- it has been justifiably a concern for a long, long time, but our imagination about what it means to be in a fiscal crisis is, uh, not very well developed.

I think we take too much from movies when we think about these things.

The fiscal crisis, I think in many people's minds, constitutes a major recession of a huge collapse of the economy, um, cataclysmic, uh, events.

But in point of fact, financial, financial institutions are able to price in so much of the, uh, uncertainty.

Uh, they are able to, uh, discount the, um, the rise of the debt in a way that, that immunizes a lot of economic activity from what would otherwise be, I think, in a, in another country, perhaps less, less strong, m- uh, a country with, that doesn't have the reserve currency status that we do, that would be the cause of major disruption.

But I think it has been a crisis for some time.

So how would, how would you characterize the labor market right now in the US?

What's your reaction to her firing and the underlying allegation?

Well, it's just, it's just very implausible.

Uh, and I'll tell you why.

The Commissioner of Labor Statistics, uh, that was my job, has no access to the collection of the data, has no access to the summ- summation of the data when it comes out of the regions, goes to the national office, has no access, no hand, no possibility of having any involvement in the calculation of the numbers that are ultimately published.

In fact, the commissioner doesn't see the number for the first time.

The numbers are revealed to the commissioner Wednesday morning, usually around 11:00, uh, in a meeting.

Uh, those numbers have now been loaded into all the machines, all over the data center, which will go all over the world, uh, eventually on, at 8:30 Eastern Time, Friday morning.

How unusual are revisions that large? And if the initial estimates can be so far off, isn't at least some criticism fair?

When you saw how this unfolded with the president, uh, firing, uh, one of your successors, did you ever think this kind of a step could be taken?

I, I didn't think it would come to a firing.

I, I...

You know, we've, we've had this sort of, uh, understanding between the parties that the BLS commissioner appointed by one party would be continued by the o- by the other party in order to re- re- retain the confidence that people have in the numbers to basically say this is not a political position even though he's presidentially appointed and was Senate-confirmed.

It's very different from being the head of the Labor Department or the Treasury secretary.

So, so that was, that was striking to me.

Uh, it was also striking that the context or the envelope of the dismissal was that there... that the commissioner was leading a conspiracy of, of people inside the bureau, uh-... whose intent was to create numbers that would be prejudicial first to the campaign of President Trump, which I think is a, uh, was, was conducted i- in a way that would not have been vulnerable to any numbers, it was well done, and then is, is prejudicial to his current, uh, public policies.

Is there something in the fact that this was such a big revision that in and of itself makes it unreliable?

Hm.

So I served a little less than two years under President Trump.

He nominated me.

It is a presidential nomination, Senate-confirmed position, so it has a statutory four-year term.

And then I served the rest of my term under President Biden.

So I, I was in both terms.

I, I think that's kind of important because the BLS commissioner has been exempt from the normal turning over of the presidency by party, and that's because the view is, well, these data are so important, they should not even be a part of the political appointment process except when they come due.

... you know, in the couple months or so before it publishes the revision? And why does it seem we are getting these large gaps at least in recent months and years?

... how did it get there?

there?Yeah, the first Friday report, the jobs report, which comes out at 8:30 Eastern Time on the first Friday, i- i- it consists of two surveys, so let me talk about the first one, which is the one you just mentioned, the, the number of jobs.

Right.

Uh, th- that is a survey of about 400,000 firms.

Out of 11.3 million firms in the United States, about 400,000 of them have agreed voluntarily to send in a pretty complex survey re- re- response every month.

They send that survey to electronic collection centers.

There's one in Chicago, there's one in Atlanta.

... data points?